This exact bet replayed over each stretch of recent games, against the 44% the best price needs to break even. A short run proves less than a long one: “likely win rate” is the range its true rate probably sits in.
| Games | Record | Likely win rate | Compared with the price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 games | 2 of 450%needs 44% to break even | 18%–82% | 6 points betterwon 50%, needs 44% |
| Last 10 games | 3 of 650%needs 44% to break even | 22%–78% | 6 points betterwon 50%, needs 44% |
| Last 15 games | 7 of 1164%needs 44% to break even | 39%–82% | 19 points betterwon 64%, needs 44% |
| This season | 2 of 540%needs 44% to break even | 14%–73% | 4 points shortwon 40%, needs 44% |
| Last season | 23 of 3370%needs 44% to break even | 55%–81% | 25 points betterwon 70%, needs 44% |
| Every game | 25 of 3866%needs 44% to break even | 52%–77% | 21 points betterwon 66%, needs 44% |
Tonight PAR plays on the road, as the underdog, after a loss, against LAZ. Tap any of these to count only past games that looked the same; the record and every number below follow.
Click a price to open the bet at that book, or a book's name below for everywhere it has the best price.
Best price at the top. Each row shows what a winning $100 bet pays compared with it.
Margin in each game against par +1, newest first. Ties (pushes) don't count toward the record.
The same bet at other numbers, surest at the top, replayed over the same games. Where a book offers the number, its best price is beside it.
This team's other lines in the game.
| Bet | Best price | How often it won | Last 10 games | Trend score | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PAR to win moneylineParma · Tomorrow 2:45 PM ET |
| Date | Opponent | Margin | Beat -1 by | Bet |
|---|
| This season | ||||
| Oct 19 | -3 | -2 | Lost | |
| Oct 10 | -3 | -2 | Lost | |
| Sep 20 | 1 | +2 | Won | |
| Sep 14 | -1 | 0 | Tie | |
| Sep 6 | 0 | +1 | Won | |
| Aug 29 | -2 | -1 | Lost | |
| Aug 22 | -1 | 0 | Tie | |
| Last season | ||||
| May 24 | 1 | +2 | Won | |
| May 17 | -1 | 0 | Tie | |
| May 10 | -1 | 0 | Tie | |
| May 3 | -2 | -1 | Lost | |
| Apr 25 | PIS | 1 | +2 | Won |
| Apr 18 | 1 | +2 | Won | |
| Apr 12 | 0 | +1 | Won | |
| Apr 4 | 0 | +1 | Won | |
| Mar 21 | CRE | -2 | -1 | Lost |
| Mar 13 | -3 | -2 | Lost | |
| Mar 8 | 0 | +1 | Won | |
| Feb 27 | 0 | +1 | Won | |
| Feb 22 | 1 | +2 | Won | |
| Feb 15 | VER | 1 | +2 | Won |
| Feb 8 | 1 | +2 | Won | |
| Feb 1 | -3 | -2 | Lost | |
| Jan 25 | -4 | -3 | Lost | |
| Jan 18 | 0 | +1 | Won | |
| Jan 14 | 0 | +1 | Won | |
| Jan 11 | 1 | +2 | Won | |
| Jan 7 | -2 | -1 | Lost | |
| Jan 3 | 0 | +1 | Won | |
| Dec 27 | 1 | +2 | Won | |
| Dec 13 | -1 | 0 | Tie | |
| Dec 8 | PIS | 1 | +2 | Won |
| Nov 29 | -2 | -1 | Lost | |
| Nov 23 | VER | 1 | +2 | Won |
| Nov 8 | 0 | +1 | Won | |
| Nov 2 | -2 | -1 | Lost | |
| Oct 29 | -1 | 0 | Tie | |
| Oct 25 | 0 | +1 | Won | |
| Oct 19 | 0 | +1 | Won | |
| Oct 4 | -1 | 0 | Tie | |
| Sep 29 | 1 | +2 | Won | |
| Sep 21 | CRE | 0 | +1 | Won |
| Sep 13 | -2 | -1 | Lost | |
| Aug 30 | 0 | +1 | Won | |
| Aug 24 | -2 | -1 | Lost | |
| 11 of 38· last season29%needs 11% to break even |
| Record is last season's |
| -1.5Not beating its price |
| Under 2.5 game total, PAR gamesParma · Tomorrow 2:45 PM ET | PIN+101at Pinnacle | 27 of 38· last season71%needs 50% to break even | Record is last season's | -14.7Not beating its price |
| Over 0.5 team totalParma · Tomorrow 2:45 PM ET | -109at Polymarket | 22 of 38· last season58%needs 52% to break even | Record is last season's | -17.9Not beating its price |
| Under 0.5 team totalParma · Tomorrow 2:45 PM ET | -109at Polymarket | 16 of 38· last season42%needs 52% to break even | Record is last season's | -24.2Not beating its price |
| Over 2.5 game total, PAR gamesParma · Tomorrow 2:45 PM ET | -112at Bovada | 4 of 5· last 5 games80%needs 53% to break even | -24.3Not beating its price |
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price.
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