This exact bet replayed over each stretch of recent games, against the 43% the best price needs to break even. A short run proves less than a long one: “likely win rate” is the range its true rate probably sits in.
| Games | Record | Likely win rate | Compared with the price | Average |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 games | 1 of 520%needs 43% to break even | 5%–56% | 23 points shortwon 20%, needs 43% | 3.8goals |
| Last 10 games | 2 of 1020%needs 43% to break even | 7%–46% | 23 points shortwon 20%, needs 43% | 3.9goals |
| Last 15 games | 6 of 1540%needs 43% to break even | 22%–61% | 3 points shortwon 40%, needs 43% | 3.4goals |
| This season | 4 of 1233%needs 43% to break even | 16%–57% | 9 points shortwon 33%, needs 43% | 3.6goals |
| Last season | 34 of 8241% |
Tonight TOR plays on the road, as the underdog, after a win, against EDM. Tap any of these to count only past games that looked the same; the record and every number below follow.
This season and last: 19 of 45 on the road.
Click a price to open the bet at that book, or a book's name below for everywhere it has the best price.
Best price at the top. Each row shows what a winning $100 bet pays compared with it.
TOR goals in each game against under 2.5, newest first. Ties (pushes) don't count toward the record.
The same bet at other numbers, surest at the top, replayed over the same games. Where a book offers the number, its best price is beside it.
The numbers the books are posting on the other side.
| Bet | Best price | How often it won | Last 10 games | Trend score | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 team totalToronto Maple Leafs |
This team's other lines in the game.
| Bet | Best price | How often it won | Last 10 games | Trend score | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOR +1.5 spreadToronto Maple Leafs |
| 33%–51% |
| 1 points shortwon 41%, needs 43% |
| 3.1goals |
| Every game | 38 of 9440%needs 43% to break even | 32%–49% | 2 points shortwon 40%, needs 43% | 3.1goals |
| Date | Opponent | TOR goals | Beat 2.5 by | Bet |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| This season | ||||
| Oct 22 | 5 | -2.5 | Lost | |
| Oct 20 | 6 | -3.5 | Lost | |
| Oct 19 | 3 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Oct 17 | 1 | +1.5 | Won | |
| Oct 15 | 4 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Oct 13 | 4 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Oct 10 | 6 | -3.5 | Lost | |
| Oct 8 | 3 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Oct 6 | 5 | -2.5 | Lost | |
| Oct 3 | 2 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Sep 30 | 2 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Sep 29 | 2 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Last season | ||||
| Apr 15 | 1 | +1.5 | Won | |
| Apr 13 | 5 | -2.5 | Lost | |
| Apr 11 | 2 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Apr 9 | 3 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Apr 8 | 0 | +2.5 | Won | |
| Apr 4 | 6 | -3.5 | Lost | |
| Apr 2 | 1 | +1.5 | Won | |
| Mar 30 | 5 | -2.5 | Lost | |
| Mar 28 | 1 | +1.5 | Won | |
| Mar 25 | 4 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Mar 24 | 4 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Mar 21 | 2 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Mar 20 | 3 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Mar 17 | 1 | +1.5 | Won | |
| Mar 15 | 4 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Mar 14 | 2 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Mar 12 | 6 | -3.5 | Lost | |
| Mar 10 | 1 | +1.5 | Won | |
| Mar 7 | 2 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Mar 5 | 2 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Mar 4 | 3 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Mar 2 | 2 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Feb 28 | 2 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Feb 26 | 1 | +1.5 | Won | |
| Feb 25 | 2 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Feb 3 | 5 | -2.5 | Lost | |
| Feb 2 | 4 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Jan 31 | 3 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Jan 29 | 2 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Jan 27 | 4 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Jan 25 | 1 | +1.5 | Won | |
| Jan 23 | 3 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Jan 21 | 1 | +1.5 | Won | |
| Jan 19 | 3 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Jan 17 | 4 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Jan 15 | 5 | -2.5 | Lost | |
| Jan 13 | 1 | +1.5 | Won | |
| Jan 12 | 4 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Jan 10 | 5 | -2.5 | Lost | |
| Jan 8 | 2 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Jan 6 | 4 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Jan 3 | 3 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Jan 1 | 6 | -3.5 | Lost | |
| Dec 30 | 4 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Dec 28 | 2 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Dec 27 | 7 | -4.5 | Lost | |
| Dec 23 | 6 | -3.5 | Lost | |
| Dec 21 | 1 | +1.5 | Won | |
| Dec 20 | 3 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Dec 18 | 0 | +2.5 | Won | |
| Dec 16 | 3 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Dec 13 | 3 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Dec 11 | 2 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Dec 8 | 2 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Dec 6 | 1 | +1.5 | Won | |
| Dec 4 | 5 | -2.5 | Lost | |
| Dec 2 | 4 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Nov 29 | 7 | -4.5 | Lost | |
| Nov 28 | 2 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Nov 26 | 2 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Nov 22 | 2 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Nov 20 | 2 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Nov 18 | 3 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Nov 15 | 2 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Nov 13 | 3 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Nov 11 | 3 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Nov 9 | 4 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Nov 8 | 3 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Nov 5 | 5 | -2.5 | Lost | |
| Nov 3 | 4 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Nov 1 | 5 | -2.5 | Lost | |
| Oct 29 | 3 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Oct 28 | 4 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Oct 25 | 4 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Oct 24 | 3 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Oct 21 | 2 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Oct 18 | 3 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Oct 16 | 2 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Oct 14 | 7 | -4.5 | Lost | |
| Oct 13 | 2 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Oct 11 | 3 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Oct 8 | 5 | -2.5 | Lost | |
| -175at Kalshi |
| 8 of 10· last 10 games80%needs 64% to break even26 of 45 on the road |
| -16.5Not beating its price |
| Over 3.5 team totalToronto Maple Leafs · Today 7:00 PM ET | +134at Kalshi | 6 of 10· last 10 games60%needs 43% to break even16 of 45 on the road | -12.3Not beating its price |
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price.
| -158at Polymarket |
| 11 of 12· this season92%needs 61% to break even25 of 45 on the road |
| Record is this season's |
| -2.6Not beating its price |
| Over 7.5 game total, TOR gamesToronto Maple Leafs · Today 7:00 PM ET | +155at Polymarket | 6 of 10· last 10 games60%needs 39% to break even14 of 45 on the road | -8.7Not beating its price |
| Under 5.5 game total, TOR gamesToronto Maple Leafs · Today 7:00 PM ET | +212at Polymarket | 27 of 82· last season33%needs 32% to break even11 of 45 on the road | Record is last season's | -12.2Not beating its price |
| TOR to win moneylineToronto Maple Leafs · Today 7:00 PM ET | +152at Kalshi | 32 of 82· last season39%needs 40% to break even16 of 45 on the road | Record is last season's | -12.2Not beating its price |
| Over 6.5 game total, TOR gamesToronto Maple Leafs · Today 7:00 PM ET | -148at Kalshi | 46 of 82· last season56%needs 60% to break even25 of 45 on the road | Record is last season's | -19.0Not beating its price |
| Under 6.5 game total, TOR gamesToronto Maple Leafs · Today 7:00 PM ET | +131at Polymarket | 36 of 82· last season44%needs 43% to break even20 of 45 on the road | Record is last season's | -20.9Not beating its price |
| Under 7.5 game total, TOR gamesToronto Maple Leafs · Today 7:00 PM ET | -179at Polymarket | 57 of 82· last season70%needs 64% to break even31 of 45 on the road | Record is last season's | -32.1Not beating its price |
| TOR +0.5 1st period spreadToronto Maple Leafs · Today 7:00 PM ET | -191at Kalshi | 52 of 82· last season63%needs 66% to break even28 of 45 on the road | Record is last season's | -32.9Not beating its price |
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price.
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