This exact bet replayed over each stretch of recent games, against the 64% the best price needs to break even. A short run proves less than a long one: “likely win rate” is the range its true rate probably sits in.
| Games | Record | Likely win rate | Compared with the price | Average |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 games | 4 of 580%needs 64% to break even | 44%–95% | 16 points betterwon 80%, needs 64% | 3.8goals |
| Last 10 games | 8 of 1080%needs 64% to break even | 54%–93% | 16 points betterwon 80%, needs 64% | 3.9goals |
| Last 15 games | 9 of 1560%needs 64% to break even | 39%–78% | 4 points shortwon 60%, needs 64% | 3.4goals |
| This season | 8 of 1267%needs 64% to break even | 43%–84% | 3 points betterwon 67%, needs 64% | 3.6goals |
| Last season | 48 of 8259%needs 64% to break even | 49%–67% | 5 points shortwon 59%, needs 64% | 3.1goals |
| Every game | 56 of 9460%needs 64% to break even | 51%–68% | 4 points shortwon 60%, needs 64% | 3.1goals |
Tonight TOR plays on the road, as the underdog, after a win, against EDM. Tap any of these to count only past games that looked the same; the record and every number below follow.
This season and last: 26 of 45 on the road.
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Click a price to open the bet at that book, or a book's name below for everywhere it has the best price.
Best price at the top. Each row shows what a winning $100 bet pays compared with it.
TOR goals in each game against over 2.5, newest first. Ties (pushes) don't count toward the record.
| Date | Opponent | TOR goals | Beat 2.5 by | Bet |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| This season | ||||
| Oct 22 | 5 | +2.5 | Won | |
| Oct 20 | 6 | +3.5 | Won | |
| Oct 19 | 3 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Oct 17 | 1 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Oct 15 | 4 | +1.5 | Won | |
| Oct 13 | 4 | +1.5 | Won | |
| Oct 10 | 6 | +3.5 | Won | |
| Oct 8 | 3 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Oct 6 | 5 | +2.5 | Won | |
| Oct 3 | 2 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Sep 30 | 2 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Sep 29 | 2 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Last season | ||||
| Apr 15 | 1 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Apr 13 | 5 | +2.5 | Won | |
| Apr 11 | 2 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Apr 9 | 3 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Apr 8 | 0 | -2.5 | Lost | |
| Apr 4 | 6 | +3.5 | Won | |
| Apr 2 | 1 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Mar 30 | 5 | +2.5 | Won | |
| Mar 28 | 1 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Mar 25 | 4 | +1.5 | Won | |
| Mar 24 | 4 | +1.5 | Won | |
| Mar 21 | 2 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Mar 20 | 3 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Mar 17 | 1 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Mar 15 | 4 | +1.5 | Won | |
| Mar 14 | 2 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Mar 12 | 6 | +3.5 | Won | |
| Mar 10 | 1 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Mar 7 | 2 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Mar 5 | 2 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Mar 4 | 3 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Mar 2 | 2 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Feb 28 | 2 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Feb 26 | 1 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Feb 25 | 2 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Feb 3 | 5 | +2.5 | Won | |
| Feb 2 | 4 | +1.5 | Won | |
| Jan 31 | 3 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Jan 29 | 2 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Jan 27 | 4 | +1.5 | Won | |
| Jan 25 | 1 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Jan 23 | 3 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Jan 21 | 1 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Jan 19 | 3 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Jan 17 | 4 | +1.5 | Won | |
| Jan 15 | 5 | +2.5 | Won | |
| Jan 13 | 1 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Jan 12 | 4 | +1.5 | Won | |
| Jan 10 | 5 | +2.5 | Won | |
| Jan 8 | 2 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Jan 6 | 4 | +1.5 | Won | |
| Jan 3 | 3 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Jan 1 | 6 | +3.5 | Won | |
| Dec 30 | 4 | +1.5 | Won | |
| Dec 28 | 2 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Dec 27 | 7 | +4.5 | Won | |
| Dec 23 | 6 | +3.5 | Won | |
| Dec 21 | 1 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Dec 20 | 3 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Dec 18 | 0 | -2.5 | Lost | |
| Dec 16 | 3 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Dec 13 | 3 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Dec 11 | 2 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Dec 8 | 2 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Dec 6 | 1 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Dec 4 | 5 | +2.5 | Won | |
| Dec 2 | 4 | +1.5 | Won | |
| Nov 29 | 7 | +4.5 | Won | |
| Nov 28 | 2 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Nov 26 | 2 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Nov 22 | 2 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Nov 20 | 2 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Nov 18 | 3 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Nov 15 | 2 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Nov 13 | 3 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Nov 11 | 3 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Nov 9 | 4 | +1.5 | Won | |
| Nov 8 | 3 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Nov 5 | 5 | +2.5 | Won | |
| Nov 3 | 4 | +1.5 | Won | |
| Nov 1 | 5 | +2.5 | Won | |
| Oct 29 | 3 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Oct 28 | 4 | +1.5 | Won | |
| Oct 25 | 4 | +1.5 | Won | |
| Oct 24 | 3 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Oct 21 | 2 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Oct 18 | 3 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Oct 16 | 2 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Oct 14 | 7 | +4.5 | Won | |
| Oct 13 | 2 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Oct 11 | 3 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Oct 8 | 5 | +2.5 | Won | |
The same bet at other numbers, surest at the top, replayed over the same games. Where a book offers the number, its best price is beside it.
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The numbers the books are posting on the other side.
| Bet | Best price | How often it won | Last 10 games | Trend score | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under 2.5 team totalToronto Maple Leafs · Today 7:00 PM ET | +134at Kalshi | 34 of 82· last season41%needs 43% to break even19 of 45 on the road | Record is last season's | -24.5Not beating its price | |
| Under 3.5 team totalToronto Maple Leafs · Today 7:00 PM ET | -183at Kalshi | 52 of 82· last season63%needs 65% to break even29 of 45 on the road | Record is last season's | -32.5Not beating its price |
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price.
This team's other lines in the game.
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price.