This exact bet replayed over each stretch of recent games, against the 62% the best price needs to break even. A short run proves less than a long one: “likely win rate” is the range its true rate probably sits in.
| Games | Record | Likely win rate | Compared with the price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 games | 3 of 560%needs 62% to break even | 27%–86% | 2 points shortwon 60%, needs 62% |
| Last 10 games | 6 of 1060%needs 62% to break even | 35%–81% | 2 points shortwon 60%, needs 62% |
| Last 15 games | 10 of 1567%needs 62% to break even | 46%–83% | 4 points betterwon 67%, needs 62% |
| This season | 6 of 1060%needs 62% to break even | 35%–81% | 2 points shortwon 60%, needs 62% |
| Last season | 56 of 7872%needs 62% to break even | 63%–79% | 10 points betterwon 72%, needs 62% |
| Every game | 62 of 8870%needs 62% to break even | 62%–78% | 8 points betterwon 70%, needs 62% |
Tonight COL plays at home, as the favorite, after a loss, against TB. Tap any of these to count only past games that looked the same; the record and every number below follow.
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Click a price to open the bet at that book, or a book's name below for everywhere it has the best price.
Best price at the top. Each row shows what a winning $100 bet pays compared with it.
Points in each game against over 0.5, newest first. Ties (pushes) don't count toward the record.
| Date | Opponent | Points | Beat 0.5 by | Bet |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| This season | ||||
| Oct 20 | 0 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Oct 19 | 1 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Oct 16 | 3 | +2.5 | Won | |
| Oct 14 | 0 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Oct 13 | 2 | +1.5 | Won | |
| Oct 10 | 1 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Oct 8 | 0 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Oct 7 | 0 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Oct 3 | 3 | +2.5 | Won | |
| Sep 30 | 1 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Last season | ||||
| Apr 14 | 1 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Apr 13 | 0 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Apr 11 | 1 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Apr 9 | 3 | +2.5 | Won | |
| Apr 7 | 1 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Apr 5 | 0 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Apr 4 | 2 | +1.5 | Won | |
| Apr 1 | 0 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Mar 30 | 3 | +2.5 | Won | |
| Mar 28 | 0 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Mar 26 | 1 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Mar 24 | 2 | +1.5 | Won | |
| Mar 22 | 2 | +1.5 | Won | |
| Mar 20 | 3 | +2.5 | Won | |
| Mar 18 | 0 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Mar 16 | 1 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Mar 14 | 1 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Mar 12 | 2 | +1.5 | Won | |
| Mar 10 | 1 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Mar 8 | 0 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Mar 6 | 4 | +3.5 | Won | |
| Mar 3 | 1 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Mar 2 | 3 | +2.5 | Won | |
| Feb 28 | 2 | +1.5 | Won | |
| Feb 26 | 2 | +1.5 | Won | |
| Feb 25 | 2 | +1.5 | Won | |
| Jan 29 | 0 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Jan 28 | 0 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Jan 25 | 0 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Jan 23 | 2 | +1.5 | Won | |
| Jan 21 | 0 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Jan 19 | 2 | +1.5 | Won | |
| Jan 16 | 1 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Jan 12 | 2 | +1.5 | Won | |
| Jan 10 | 0 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Jan 8 | 2 | +1.5 | Won | |
| Jan 6 | 0 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Jan 4 | 0 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Jan 3 | 2 | +1.5 | Won | |
| Dec 31 | 1 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Dec 29 | 1 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Dec 27 | 2 | +1.5 | Won | |
| Dec 23 | 0 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Dec 21 | 1 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Dec 19 | 1 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Dec 16 | 2 | +1.5 | Won | |
| Dec 13 | 0 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Dec 11 | 2 | +1.5 | Won | |
| Dec 9 | 2 | +1.5 | Won | |
| Dec 7 | 1 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Dec 6 | 3 | +2.5 | Won | |
| Dec 4 | 2 | +1.5 | Won | |
| Dec 2 | 0 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Nov 29 | 3 | +2.5 | Won | |
| Nov 28 | 0 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Nov 26 | 2 | +1.5 | Won | |
| Nov 23 | 0 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Nov 22 | 0 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Nov 20 | 3 | +2.5 | Won | |
| Nov 16 | 1 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Nov 13 | 4 | +3.5 | Won | |
| Nov 11 | 1 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Nov 9 | 1 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Nov 8 | 0 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Nov 4 | 1 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Nov 1 | 1 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Oct 31 | 3 | +2.5 | Won | |
| Oct 28 | 1 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Oct 26 | 0 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Oct 25 | 0 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Oct 23 | 1 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Oct 21 | 1 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Oct 18 | 1 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Oct 16 | 1 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Oct 13 | 2 | +1.5 | Won | |
| Oct 11 | 3 | +2.5 | Won | |
| Oct 9 | 1 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Oct 7 | 2 | +1.5 | Won | |
The same bet at other numbers, surest at the top, replayed over the same games. Where a book offers the number, its best price is beside it.
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The numbers the books are posting on the other side.
| Bet | Best price | How often it won | Last 10 games | Trend score | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under 0.5 pointsMartin Necas · Today 9:10 PM ET | +130at DraftKings | 22 of 78· last season28%needs 43% to break even | Record is last season's | -23.9Not beating its price |
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price.
This player's other props in the game.
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price.