This exact bet replayed over each stretch of recent games, against the 53% the best price needs to break even. A short run proves less than a long one: “likely win rate” is the range its true rate probably sits in.
| Games | Record | Likely win rate | Compared with the price | Average |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 games | 4 of 580%needs 53% to break even | 44%–95% | 27 points betterwon 80%, needs 53% | 23.6rushing yards |
| Last 10 games | 4 of 944%needs 53% to break even | 22%–70% | 9 points shortwon 44%, needs 53% | 29.6rushing yards |
| Last 15 games | 4 of 944%needs 53% to break even | 22%–70% | 9 points shortwon 44%, needs 53% | 29.6rushing yards |
| This season | 3 of 475%needs 53% to break even | 36%–94% | 22 points betterwon 75%, needs 53% | 23.3rushing yards |
| Last season |
Tonight MIN plays at home, as the favorite, after a win, against IND. Tap any of these to count only past games that looked the same; the record and every number below follow.
This season and last: 3 of 5 at home. Tonight: IND allows 21.5 rushing yards a game to quarterbacks, the 9th most of 32 defenses (the average defense allows 17.3): a tough matchup for this bet. How IND defends quarterbacks
Click a price to open the bet at that book, or a book's name below for everywhere it has the best price.
Best price at the top. Each row shows what a winning $100 bet pays compared with it.
Rushing yards in each game against under 26.5, newest first. Ties (pushes) don't count toward the record.
The same bet at other numbers, surest at the top, replayed over the same games. Where a book offers the number, its best price is beside it.
The numbers the books are posting on the other side.
This player's other props in the game.
| 5%–56% |
| 33 points shortwon 20%, needs 53% |
| 34.6rushing yards |
| Every game | 4 of 944%needs 53% to break even | 22%–70% | 9 points shortwon 44%, needs 53% | 29.6rushing yards |
| 17 |
| +9.5 |
| Won |
| Wk 1 | 9 | +17.5 | Won |
| Last season | ||||
| Wk 5 | 25 | +1.5 | Won | |
| Wk 4 | 41 | -14.5 | Lost |
| Wk 3 | 37 | -10.5 | Lost |
| Wk 2 | 32 | -5.5 | Lost |
| Wk 1 | 38 | -11.5 | Lost |
| -175at Kalshi |
| 5 of 5· last season100%needs 64% to break even3 of 5 at home |
| Record is last season's |
| -18.8Not beating its price |
| Over 24.5 rushing yardsKyler Murray · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ET | -115at BetMGM | 5 of 5· last season100%needs 53% to break even3 of 5 at home | Record is last season's | -12.3Not beating its price |
| Over 25.5 rushing yardsKyler Murray · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ET | -114at FanDuel | 4 of 5· last season80%needs 53% to break even2 of 5 at home | Record is last season's | -19.1Not beating its price |
| Over 26.5 rushing yardsKyler Murray · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ET | -109at DraftKings | 4 of 5· last season80%needs 52% to break even2 of 5 at home | Record is last season's | -18.4Not beating its price |
| Over 29.5 rushing yardsKyler Murray · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ET | +125at Fanatics | 4 of 5· last season80%needs 44% to break even2 of 5 at home | Record is last season's | -13.5Not beating its price |
| Over 36.5 rushing yardsKyler Murray · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ET | +151at BetOnline | 3 of 5· last season60%needs 40% to break even1 of 5 at home | Record is last season's | -15.1Not beating its price |
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. A thin upright line marks where this season starts. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price.
| -130at Fanatics |
| 5 of 5· last 5 games100%needs 57% to break even4 of 5 at home |
| -5.4Not beating its price |
| Scores a TDKyler Murray · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ET | +456at Kalshi | 1 of 5· last 5 games20%needs 18% to break even1 of 5 at home | -9.7Not beating its price |
| Over 21.5 completionsKyler Murray · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ET | +125at DraftKings | 5 of 9· last 10 games, 1 skipped56%needs 44% to break even3 of 5 at home | -12.0Not beating its price |
| Over 20.5 completionsKyler Murray · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ET | -112at Kalshi | 4 of 5· last season80%needs 53% to break even3 of 5 at home | Record is last season's | -12.6Not beating its price |
| Under 224.5 passing yardsKyler Murray · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ET | -168at Kalshi | 5 of 5· last season100%needs 63% to break even4 of 5 at home | Record is last season's | -13.0Not beating its price |
| Over 0.5 interceptions thrownKyler Murray · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ET | +153at DraftKings | 4 of 9· last 10 games, 1 skipped44%needs 40% to break even3 of 5 at home | -14.4Not beating its price |
| Over 22.5 completionsKyler Murray · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ET | +135at BetOnline | 3 of 5· last 5 games60%needs 43% to break even3 of 5 at home | -14.8Not beating its price |
| Over 5.5 rush attemptsKyler Murray · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ET | +115at BetOnline | 5 of 9· last 10 games, 1 skipped56%needs 47% to break even2 of 5 at home | -14.9Not beating its price |
| Under 30.5 pass attemptsKyler Murray · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ET | -105at DraftKings | 3 of 4· this season75%needs 51% to break even2 of 5 at home | Record is this season's | -16.2Not beating its price |
| Over 33.5 pass attemptsKyler Murray · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ET | +180at DraftKings | 2 of 5· last season40%needs 36% to break even2 of 5 at home | Record is last season's | -16.3Not beating its price |
| Over 249.5 passing yardsKyler Murray · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ET | +280at BetRivers | 0 of 5· last 5 games0%needs 26% to break even0 of 5 at home | -16.9Not beating its price |
| Over 219.5 passing yardsKyler Murray · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ET | +114at DraftKings | 3 of 5· last 5 games60%needs 47% to break even3 of 5 at home | -17.5Not beating its price |
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. A thin upright line marks where this season starts. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price. A yes-or-no bet (a draw, both teams to score, a TD) shows one same-size bar per game, green when it won.
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