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NFLPlayer propReceptions
T.J. Hockenson under 4.5 receptions
Won12 of 15last 15 games · 80%
Best price-144DraftKings
Price needs59.0%wins to break even
Every game15 of 20this season and last
Trend score-5.0Not beating its price
How often it won
This exact bet replayed over each stretch of recent games, against the 59% the best price needs to break even. A short run proves less than a long one: “likely win rate” is the range its true rate probably sits in.
| Games | Record | Likely win rate | Compared with the price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 games | 4 of 580%needs 59% to break even | 44%–95% | 21 points betterwon 80%, needs 59% |
| Last 10 games | 8 of 1080%needs 59% to break even | 54%–93% | 21 points betterwon 80%, needs 59% |
| Last 15 games | 12 of 1580%needs 59% to break even | 59%–92% | 21 points betterwon 80%, needs 59% |
| This season | 4 of 580%needs 59% to break even | 44%–95% | 21 points betterwon 80%, needs 59% |
| Last season | 11 of 1573%needs 59% to break even | 52%–87% | 14 points betterwon 73%, needs 59% |
| Every game | 15 of 2075%needs 59% to break even | 57%–87% | 16 points betterwon 75%, needs 59% |
Games like tonight
Tonight MIN plays at home, as the favorite, after a win, against IND. Tap any of these to count only past games that looked the same; the record and every number below follow.
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Every book's price
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T.J. Hockenson under 4.5 receptions3 books
Best price at the top. Each row shows what a winning $100 bet pays compared with it.
Every game behind it
Receptions in each game against under 4.5, newest first. Ties (pushes) don't count toward the record.
| Date | Opponent | Receptions | Beat 4.5 by | Bet |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| This season | ||||
| Wk 5 |  NO | 1 | +3.5 | Won |
| Wk 4 |  MIA | 13 | -8.5 | Lost |
| Wk 3 |  TB | 2 | +2.5 | Won |
| Wk 2 |  CHI | 3 | +1.5 | Won |
| Wk 1 |  GB | 4 | +0.5 | Won |
| Last season | ||||
| Wk 16 |  NYG | 1 | +3.5 | Won |
| Wk 15 |  DAL | 4 | +0.5 | Won |
| Wk 14 |  WSH | 2 | +2.5 | Won |
| Wk 13 |  SEA | 6 | -1.5 | Lost |
| Wk 12 | GB | 4 | +0.5 | Won |
| Wk 11 | CHI | 3 | +1.5 | Won |
| Wk 10 |  BAL | 2 | +2.5 | Won |
| Wk 9 |  DET | 2 | +2.5 | Won |
| Wk 8 |  LAC | 2 | +2.5 | Won |
| Wk 7 |  PHI | 6 | -1.5 | Lost |
| Wk 5 |  CLE | 6 | -1.5 | Lost |
| Wk 4 |  PIT | 4 | +0.5 | Won |
| Wk 3 |  CIN | 5 | -0.5 | Lost |
| Wk 2 |  ATL | 1 | +3.5 | Won |
| Wk 1 | CHI | 3 | +1.5 | Won |
Every number on this bet
The same bet at other numbers, surest at the top, replayed over the same games. Where a book offers the number, its best price is beside it.
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The opposite bet
The numbers the books are posting on the other side.
| Bet | Best price | How often it won | Last 10 games | Trend score | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 4.5 receptionsT.J. Hockenson · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ETListed questionable |  +117at BetOnline | 4 of 15· last season27%needs 46% to break even | Record is last season's | -30.0Not beating its price |
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price.
More on T.J. Hockenson in this game
This player's other props in the game.
| Bet | Best price | How often it won | Last 10 games | Trend score | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under 36.5 receiving yardsT.J. Hockenson · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ETListed questionable |  -113at DraftKings | 10 of 15· last 15 games67%needs 53% to break even | -9.6Not beating its price | ||
| Over 36.5 receiving yardsT.J. Hockenson · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ETListed questionable | -111at DraftKings | 7 of 15· last season47%needs 53% to break even | Record is last season's | -28.5Not beating its price |
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price.