This exact bet replayed over each stretch of recent games, against the 53% the best price needs to break even. A short run proves less than a long one: “likely win rate” is the range its true rate probably sits in.
| Games | Record | Likely win rate | Compared with the price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 games | 4 of 580%needs 53% to break even | 44%–95% | 27 points betterwon 80%, needs 53% |
| Last 10 games | 7 of 1070%needs 53% to break even | 44%–87% | 17 points betterwon 70%, needs 53% |
| Last 15 games | 10 of 1567%needs 53% to break even | 46%–83% | 14 points betterwon 67%, needs 53% |
| This season | 4 of 580%needs 53% to break even | 44%–95% | 27 points betterwon 80%, needs 53% |
| Last season | 8 of 1553%needs 53% to break even | 33%–72% |
Tonight MIN plays at home, as the favorite, after a win, against IND. Tap any of these to count only past games that looked the same; the record and every number below follow.
Click a price to open the bet at that book, or a book's name below for everywhere it has the best price.
Best price at the top. Each row shows what a winning $100 bet pays compared with it.
Receiving yards in each game against under 36.5, newest first. Ties (pushes) don't count toward the record.
| Date | Opponent | Receiving yards | Beat 36.5 by | Bet |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| This season | ||||
| Wk 5 | 7 | +29.5 | Won | |
| Wk 4 | ||||
The same bet at other numbers, surest at the top, replayed over the same games. Where a book offers the number, its best price is beside it.
The numbers the books are posting on the other side.
| Bet | Best price | How often it won | Last 10 games | Trend score | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 36.5 receiving yardsT.J. Hockenson |
This player's other props in the game.
| Bet | Best price | How often it won | Last 10 games | Trend score | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under 4.5 receptionsT.J. Hockenson |
| Every game | 12 of 2060%needs 53% to break even | 42%–76% | 7 points betterwon 60%, needs 53% |
| 119 |
| -82.5 |
| Lost |
| Wk 3 | 11 | +25.5 | Won |
| Wk 2 | 29 | +7.5 | Won |
| Wk 1 | 36 | +0.5 | Won |
| Last season | ||||
| Wk 16 | 2 | +34.5 | Won | |
| Wk 15 | 66 | -29.5 | Lost |
| Wk 14 | 12 | +24.5 | Won |
| Wk 13 | 59 | -22.5 | Lost |
| Wk 12 | 19 | +17.5 | Won |
| Wk 11 | 39 | -2.5 | Lost |
| Wk 10 | 8 | +28.5 | Won |
| Wk 9 | 11 | +25.5 | Won |
| Wk 8 | 26 | +10.5 | Won |
| Wk 7 | 43 | -6.5 | Lost |
| Wk 5 | 38 | -1.5 | Lost |
| Wk 4 | 39 | -2.5 | Lost |
| Wk 3 | 49 | -12.5 | Lost |
| Wk 2 | 12 | +24.5 | Won |
| Wk 1 | 15 | +21.5 | Won |
| -111at DraftKings |
| 7 of 15· last season47%needs 53% to break even |
| Record is last season's |
| -28.5Not beating its price |
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price.
| -144at DraftKings |
| 12 of 15· last 15 games80%needs 59% to break even |
| -5.0Not beating its price |
| Over 4.5 receptionsT.J. Hockenson · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ETListed questionable | +117at BetOnline | 4 of 15· last season27%needs 46% to break even | Record is last season's | -30.0Not beating its price |
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price.
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