This exact bet replayed over each stretch of recent games, against the 57% the best price needs to break even. A short run proves less than a long one: “likely win rate” is the range its true rate probably sits in.
| Games | Record | Likely win rate | Compared with the price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 games | 3 of 560%needs 57% to break even | 27%–86% | 3 points betterwon 60%, needs 57% |
| Last 10 games | 4 of 1040%needs 57% to break even | 19%–65% | 17 points shortwon 40%, needs 57% |
| Last 15 games | 7 of 1547%needs 57% to break even | 28%–67% | 10 points shortwon 47%, needs 57% |
| This season | 3 of 650%needs 57% to break even | 22%–78% | 7 points shortwon 50%, needs 57% |
| Last season | 6 of 1735%needs 57% to break even | 19%–55% | 21 points shortwon 35%, needs 57% |
| Every game |
Tonight IND plays on the road, as the underdog, after a loss, against MIN. Tap any of these to count only past games that looked the same; the record and every number below follow.
Click a price to open the bet at that book, or a book's name below for everywhere it has the best price.
Best price at the top. Each row shows what a winning $100 bet pays compared with it.
Receptions in each game against under 2.5, newest first. Ties (pushes) don't count toward the record.
| Date | Opponent | Receptions | Beat 2.5 by | Bet |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| This season | ||||
| Wk 6 | ||||
The same bet at other numbers, surest at the top, replayed over the same games. Where a book offers the number, its best price is beside it.
The numbers the books are posting on the other side.
| Bet | Best price | How often it won | Last 10 games | Trend score | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 receptionsJonathan Taylor |
This player's other props in the game.
| Bet | Best price | How often it won | Last 10 games | Trend score | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 18.5 rush attemptsJonathan Taylor |
| 24%–56% |
| 18 points shortwon 39%, needs 57% |
| 2 |
| +0.5 |
| Won |
| Wk 5 | 3 | -0.5 | Lost |
| Wk 4 | 1 | +1.5 | Won |
| Wk 3 | 2 | +0.5 | Won |
| Wk 2 | 4 | -1.5 | Lost |
| Wk 1 | 3 | -0.5 | Lost |
| Last season | ||||
| Wk 18 | 2 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Wk 17 | 3 | -0.5 | Lost |
| Wk 16 | 3 | -0.5 | Lost |
| Wk 15 | 3 | -0.5 | Lost |
| Wk 14 | 0 | +2.5 | Won |
| Wk 13 | 3 | -0.5 | Lost |
| Wk 12 | 2 | +0.5 | Won |
| Wk 10 | 3 | -0.5 | Lost |
| Wk 9 | 2 | +0.5 | Won |
| Wk 8 | 2 | +0.5 | Won |
| Wk 7 | 3 | -0.5 | Lost |
| Wk 6 | 4 | -1.5 | Lost |
| Wk 5 | 3 | -0.5 | Lost |
| Wk 4 | 5 | -2.5 | Lost |
| Wk 3 | 3 | -0.5 | Lost |
| Wk 2 | 2 | +0.5 | Won |
| Wk 1 | 3 | -0.5 | Lost |
| +111at DraftKings |
| 11 of 17· last season65%needs 47% to break even |
| Record is last season's |
| -13.1Not beating its price |
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price.
| -103at Kalshi |
| 5 of 6· this season83%needs 51% to break even |
| Record is this season's |
| -8.5Not beating its price |
| Over 89.5 rushing yardsJonathan Taylor · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ET | +189at Kalshi | 4 of 6· this season67%needs 35% to break even | Record is this season's | -9.3Not beating its price |
| Over 69.5 rushing yardsJonathan Taylor · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ET | -110at DraftKings | 12 of 17· last season71%needs 52% to break even | Record is last season's | -11.3Not beating its price |
| Over 24.5 receiving yardsJonathan Taylor · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ET | +173at Kalshi | 3 of 5· last 5 games60%needs 37% to break even | -12.2Not beating its price |
| Over 68.5 rushing yardsJonathan Taylor · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ET | -115at BetMGM | 12 of 17· last season71%needs 53% to break even | Record is last season's | -12.3Not beating its price |
| Over 79.5 rushing yardsJonathan Taylor · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ET | +124at Kalshi | 4 of 6· this season67%needs 45% to break even | Record is this season's | -12.7Not beating its price |
| Over 59.5 rushing yardsJonathan Taylor · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ET | -191at Kalshi | 13 of 17· last season76%needs 66% to break even | Record is last season's | -14.0Not beating its price |
| Scores a TDJonathan Taylor · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ET | -112at Kalshi | 10 of 17· last season59%needs 53% to break even | Record is last season's | -15.0Not beating its price |
| Over 70.5 rushing yardsJonathan Taylor · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ET | -120at Fanatics | 11 of 17· last season65%needs 55% to break even | Record is last season's | -16.6Not beating its price |
| Over 71.5 rushing yardsJonathan Taylor · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ET | -114at FanDuel | 10 of 17· last season59%needs 53% to break even | Record is last season's | -16.7Not beating its price |
| Over 16.5 receiving yardsJonathan Taylor · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ET | -110at BetRivers | 4 of 6· this season67%needs 52% to break even | Record is this season's | -18.0Not beating its price |
| Over 21.5 rush attemptsJonathan Taylor · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ET | +198at Kalshi | 2 of 5· last 5 games40%needs 34% to break even | -18.2Not beating its price |
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price.
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