This exact bet replayed over each stretch of recent games, against the 53% the best price needs to break even. A short run proves less than a long one: “likely win rate” is the range its true rate probably sits in.
| Games | Record | Likely win rate | Compared with the price | Average |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 games | 1 of 250%needs 53% to break even | 12%–88% | 3 points shortwon 50%, needs 53% | 18receiving yards |
| Last 10 games | 1 of 250%needs 53% to break even | 12%–88% | 3 points shortwon 50%, needs 53% | 18receiving yards |
| Last 15 games | 1 of 250%needs 53% to break even | 12%–88% | 3 points shortwon 50%, needs 53% | 18receiving yards |
| This season | 1 of 1100%needs 53% to break even | 27%–100% | 47 points betterwon 100%, needs 53% | 20receiving yards |
| Last season | 0 of 10%needs 53% to break even | 0%–73% | 53 points shortwon 0%, needs 53% | 16receiving yards |
| Every game | 1 of 250%needs 53% to break even | 12%–88% | 3 points shortwon 50%, needs 53% | 18receiving yards |
Tonight IND plays on the road, as the underdog, after a loss, against MIN. Tap any of these to count only past games that looked the same; the record and every number below follow.
Tonight: MIN allows 44.2 receiving yards a game to tight ends, the 10th fewest of 32 defenses (the average defense allows 54.2): a tough matchup for this bet. How MIN defends tight ends
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Best price at the top. Each row shows what a winning $100 bet pays compared with it.
Receiving yards in each game against over 17.5, newest first. Ties (pushes) don't count toward the record.
The same bet at other numbers, surest at the top, replayed over the same games. Where a book offers the number, its best price is beside it.
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The numbers the books are posting on the other side.
| Bet | Best price | How often it won | Last 10 games | Trend score | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under 14.5 receiving yardsWill Mallory · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ETWarren out: next up at TE | +119at Kalshi | – | Too few games | ||
| Under 16.5 receiving yardsWill Mallory · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ETWarren out: next up at TE | -115at BetRivers | – | Too few games | ||
| Under 17.5 receiving yardsWill Mallory · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ETWarren out: next up at TE | -120at BetMGM | – | Too few games | ||
| Under 18.5 receiving yardsWill Mallory · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ETWarren out: next up at TE | -114at FanDuel | – | Too few games | ||
| Under 19.5 receiving yardsWill Mallory · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ETWarren out: next up at TE | -115at DraftKings | – | Too few games |
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. A thin upright line marks where this season starts. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price.
This player's other props in the game.
| Bet | Best price | How often it won | Last 10 games | Trend score | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 receptionsWill Mallory · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ETWarren out: next up at TE | -156at BetOnline | – | Too few games | ||
| Under 1.5 receptionsWill Mallory · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ETWarren out: next up at TE | +137at DraftKings | – | Too few games | ||
| Over 2.5 receptionsWill Mallory · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ETWarren out: next up at TE | +170at Caesars | – | Too few games | ||
| Under 2.5 receptionsWill Mallory · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ETWarren out: next up at TE | -175at Kalshi | – | Too few games | ||
| Scores a TDWill Mallory · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ETWarren out: next up at TE | +700at BetMGM | – | Too few games |
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. A thin upright line marks where this season starts. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price. A yes-or-no bet (a draw, both teams to score, a TD) shows one same-size bar per game, green when it won.