This exact bet replayed over each stretch of recent games, against the 54% the best price needs to break even. A short run proves less than a long one: “likely win rate” is the range its true rate probably sits in.
| Games | Record | Likely win rate | Compared with the price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 games | 2 of 540%needs 54% to break even | 14%–73% | 14 points shortwon 40%, needs 54% |
| Last 10 games | 4 of 1040%needs 54% to break even | 19%–65% | 14 points shortwon 40%, needs 54% |
| Last 15 games | 8 of 1553%needs 54% to break even | 33%–72% | evenwon 53%, needs 54% |
| This season | 2 of 540%needs 54% to break even | 14%–73% | 14 points shortwon 40%, needs 54% |
| Last season | 7 of 1258%needs 54% to break even | 36%–78% | 5 points betterwon 58%, needs 54% |
| Every game |
Tonight MIN plays at home, as the favorite, after a win, against IND. Tap any of these to count only past games that looked the same; the record and every number below follow.
Click a price to open the bet at that book, or a book's name below for everywhere it has the best price.
Best price at the top. Each row shows what a winning $100 bet pays compared with it.
Receiving yards in each game against over 14.5, newest first. Ties (pushes) don't count toward the record.
The same bet at other numbers, surest at the top, replayed over the same games. Where a book offers the number, its best price is beside it.
The numbers the books are posting on the other side.
| Bet | Best price | How often it won | Last 10 games | Trend score | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under 14.5 receiving yardsAaron Jones Sr. |
This player's other props in the game.
| Bet | Best price | How often it won | Last 10 games | Trend score | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 39.5 rushing yardsAaron Jones Sr. |
| 34%–71% |
| 1 points shortwon 53%, needs 54% |
| Wk 3 | 34 | +19.5 | Won |
| Wk 2 | 0 | -14.5 | Lost |
| Wk 1 | 0 | -14.5 | Lost |
| Last season | ||||
| Wk 17 | 10 | -4.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 16 | 8 | -6.5 | Lost |
| Wk 15 | 31 | +16.5 | Won |
| Wk 14 | 0 | -14.5 | Lost |
| Wk 13 | 22 | +7.5 | Won |
| Wk 12 | 16 | +1.5 | Won |
| Wk 11 | 11 | -3.5 | Lost |
| Wk 10 | 22 | +7.5 | Won |
| Wk 9 | 20 | +5.5 | Won |
| Wk 8 | 15 | +0.5 | Won |
| Wk 2 | 0 | -14.5 | Lost |
| Wk 1 | 44 | +29.5 | Won |
| -112at Kalshi |
| 6 of 10· last 10 games60%needs 53% to break even |
| -19.4Not beating its price |
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price.
| -126at Kalshi |
| 5 of 5· last 5 games100%needs 56% to break even |
| -3.2Not beating its price |
| Over 59.5 rush + rec yardsAaron Jones Sr. · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ET | -112at Kalshi | 8 of 10· last 10 games80%needs 53% to break even | -3.6Not beating its price |
| Doesn't score a TDAaron Jones Sr. · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ET | -154at Kalshi | 11 of 15· last 15 games73%needs 61% to break even | -11.9Not beating its price |
| Over 2.5 receptionsAaron Jones Sr. · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ET | -103at Kalshi | 9 of 15· last 15 games60%needs 51% to break even | -12.3Not beating its price |
| Scores a TDAaron Jones Sr. · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ET | +129at Kalshi | 2 of 5· last 5 games40%needs 44% to break even | -24.3Not beating its price |
| Under 2.5 receptionsAaron Jones Sr. · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ET | -121at Kalshi | 6 of 15· last 15 games40%needs 55% to break even | -26.9Not beating its price |
| Under 39.5 rushing yardsAaron Jones Sr. · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ET | -107at Kalshi | 5 of 12· last season42%needs 52% to break even | Record is last season's | -31.7Not beating its price |
| Under 59.5 rush + rec yardsAaron Jones Sr. · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ET | -121at Kalshi | 4 of 12· last season33%needs 55% to break even | Record is last season's | -34.0Not beating its price |
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price.
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