This exact bet replayed over each stretch of recent games, against the 65% the best price needs to break even. A short run proves less than a long one: “likely win rate” is the range its true rate probably sits in.
| Games | Record | Likely win rate | Compared with the price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 games | 1 of 520%needs 65% to break even | 5%–56% | 45 points shortwon 20%, needs 65% |
| Last 10 games | 4 of 1040%needs 65% to break even | 19%–65% | 25 points shortwon 40%, needs 65% |
| Last 15 games | 7 of 1547%needs 65% to break even | 28%–67% | 18 points shortwon 47%, needs 65% |
| This season | 1 of 520%needs 65% to break even | 5%–56% | 45 points shortwon 20%, needs 65% |
| Last season | 11 of 1765%needs 65% to break even | 45%–81% | evenwon 65%, needs 65% |
| Every game | 12 of 2255%needs 65% to break even | 38%–71% | 10 points shortwon 55%, needs 65% |
Tonight DET plays at home, as the favorite, after a win, against GB. Tap any of these to count only past games that looked the same; the record and every number below follow.
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Click a price to open the bet at that book, or a book's name below for everywhere it has the best price.
Best price at the top. Each row shows what a winning $100 bet pays compared with it.
3Q total points in each game against under 13.5, newest first. Ties (pushes) don't count toward the record.
| Date | Opponent | 3Q total points | Beat 13.5 by | Bet |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| This season | ||||
| Oct 11 | 21 | -7.5 | Lost | |
| Oct 4 | 16 | -2.5 | Lost | |
| Sep 27 | 10 | +3.5 | Won | |
| Sep 17 | 14 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Sep 13 | 28 | -14.5 | Lost | |
| Last season | ||||
| Jan 4 | 3 | +10.5 | Won | |
| Dec 25 | 6 | +7.5 | Won | |
| Dec 21 | 2 | +11.5 | Won | |
| Dec 14 | 17 | -3.5 | Lost | |
| Dec 4 | 17 | -3.5 | Lost | |
| Nov 27 | 21 | -7.5 | Lost | |
| Nov 23 | 0 | +13.5 | Won | |
| Nov 16 | 0 | +13.5 | Won | |
| Nov 9 | 16 | -2.5 | Lost | |
| Nov 2 | 10 | +3.5 | Won | |
| Oct 20 | 13 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Oct 12 | 7 | +6.5 | Won | |
| Oct 5 | 14 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Sep 28 | 3 | +10.5 | Won | |
| Sep 22 | 14 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Sep 14 | 10 | +3.5 | Won | |
| Sep 7 | 3 | +10.5 | Won | |
The same bet at other numbers, surest at the top, replayed over the same games. Where a book offers the number, its best price is beside it.
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The numbers the books are posting on the other side.
| Bet | Best price | How often it won | Last 10 games | Trend score | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 10.5 3rd quarter totalDetroit Lions · Sun, Oct 25, 4:25 PM ET | +101at Kalshi | 4 of 5· last 5 games80%needs 50% to break even | -13.8Not beating its price | ||
| Over 13.5 3rd quarter totalDetroit Lions · Sun, Oct 25, 4:25 PM ET | +134at Kalshi | 4 of 5· last 5 games80%needs 43% to break even | -9.3Not beating its price |
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price.
This team's other lines in the game.
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price.