This exact bet replayed over each stretch of recent games, against the 50% the best price needs to break even. A short run proves less than a long one: “likely win rate” is the range its true rate probably sits in.
| Games | Record | Likely win rate | Compared with the price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 games | 4 of 580%needs 50% to break even | 44%–95% | 30 points betterwon 80%, needs 50% |
| Last 10 games | 6 of 1060%needs 50% to break even | 35%–81% | 10 points betterwon 60%, needs 50% |
| Last 15 games | 8 of 1553%needs 50% to break even | 33%–72% | 4 points betterwon 53%, needs 50% |
| This season | 4 of 580%needs 50% to break even | 44%–95% | 30 points betterwon 80%, needs 50% |
| Last season | 7 of 1741%needs 50% to break even | 24%–61% | 9 points shortwon 41%, needs 50% |
| Every game | 11 of 2250%needs 50% to break even | 33%–67% | evenwon 50%, needs 50% |
Tonight DET plays at home, as the favorite, after a win, against GB. Tap any of these to count only past games that looked the same; the record and every number below follow.
Click a price to open the bet at that book, or a book's name below for everywhere it has the best price.
Best price at the top. Each row shows what a winning $100 bet pays compared with it.
3Q total points in each game against over 10.5, newest first. Ties (pushes) don't count toward the record.
| Date | Opponent | 3Q total points | Beat 10.5 by | Bet |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| This season | ||||
| Oct 11 | 21 | +10.5 | ||
The same bet at other numbers, surest at the top, replayed over the same games. Where a book offers the number, its best price is beside it.
The numbers the books are posting on the other side.
| Bet | Best price | How often it won | Last 10 games | Trend score | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under 7.5 3rd quarter totalDetroit Lions · Sun, Oct 25, 4:25 PM ET |
This team's other lines in the game.
| Bet | Best price | How often it won | Last 10 games | Trend score | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DET +0.5 2nd quarter spreadDetroit Lions · Sun, Oct 25, 4:25 PM ET |
| Won |
| Oct 4 | 16 | +5.5 | Won |
| Sep 27 | 10 | -0.5 | Lost |
| Sep 17 | 14 | +3.5 | Won |
| Sep 13 | 28 | +17.5 | Won |
| Last season | ||||
| Jan 4 | 3 | -7.5 | Lost | |
| Dec 25 | 6 | -4.5 | Lost |
| Dec 21 | 2 | -8.5 | Lost |
| Dec 14 | 17 | +6.5 | Won |
| Dec 4 | 17 | +6.5 | Won |
| Nov 27 | 21 | +10.5 | Won |
| Nov 23 | 0 | -10.5 | Lost |
| Nov 16 | 0 | -10.5 | Lost |
| Nov 9 | 16 | +5.5 | Won |
| Nov 2 | 10 | -0.5 | Lost |
| Oct 20 | 13 | +2.5 | Won |
| Oct 12 | 7 | -3.5 | Lost |
| Oct 5 | 14 | +3.5 | Won |
| Sep 28 | 3 | -7.5 | Lost |
| Sep 22 | 14 | +3.5 | Won |
| Sep 14 | 10 | -0.5 | Lost |
| Sep 7 | 3 | -7.5 | Lost |
| 8 of 17· last season47%needs 38% to break even |
| Record is last season's |
| -17.2Not beating its price |
| Under 10.5 3rd quarter totalDetroit Lions · Sun, Oct 25, 4:25 PM ET | -126at Kalshi | 10 of 17· last season59%needs 56% to break even | Record is last season's | -25.1Not beating its price |
| Under 13.5 3rd quarter totalDetroit Lions · Sun, Oct 25, 4:25 PM ET | -175at Kalshi | 11 of 17· last season65%needs 64% to break even | Record is last season's | -30.1Not beating its price |
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price.
| 15 of 17· last season88%needs 66% to break even |
| Record is last season's |
| -2.2Not beating its price |
| Over 31.5 2nd half totalDetroit Lions · Sun, Oct 25, 4:25 PM ET | +198at Kalshi | 7 of 10· last 10 games70%needs 34% to break even | -2.2Not beating its price |
| DET -2.5 2nd quarter spreadDetroit Lions · Sun, Oct 25, 4:25 PM ET | -103at Kalshi | 8 of 10· last 10 games80%needs 51% to break even | -2.7Not beating its price |
| Over 54.5 game total, DET gamesDetroit Lions · Sun, Oct 25, 4:25 PM ET | +105at Kalshi | 5 of 5· last 5 games100%needs 49% to break even | -4.2Not beating its price |
| Over 52.5 game total, DET gamesDetroit Lions · Sun, Oct 25, 4:25 PM ET | -123at Polymarket | 5 of 5· last 5 games100%needs 55% to break even | -4.7Not beating its price |
| DET -0.5 2nd quarter spreadDetroit Lions · Sun, Oct 25, 4:25 PM ET | -116at Kalshi | 8 of 10· last 10 games80%needs 54% to break even | -5.1Not beating its price |
| DET -3.5 2nd quarter spreadDetroit Lions · Sun, Oct 25, 4:25 PM ET | +134at Kalshi | 11 of 17· last season65%needs 43% to break even | Record is last season's | -6.1Not beating its price |
| Over 53.5 game total, DET gamesDetroit Lions · Sun, Oct 25, 4:25 PM ET | NV-106at Novig | 5 of 5· last 5 games100%needs 51% to break even | -6.4Not beating its price |
| Over 28.5 2nd half totalDetroit Lions · Sun, Oct 25, 4:25 PM ET | +129at Kalshi | 7 of 10· last 10 games70%needs 44% to break even | -7.0Not beating its price |
| Over 50.5 game total, DET gamesDetroit Lions · Sun, Oct 25, 4:25 PM ET | -161at Kalshi | 5 of 5· last 5 games100%needs 62% to break even | -7.3Not beating its price |
| Over 51.5 game total, DET gamesDetroit Lions · Sun, Oct 25, 4:25 PM ET | -142at Kalshi | 5 of 5· last 5 games100%needs 59% to break even | -7.6Not beating its price |
| Over 56.5 game total, DET gamesDetroit Lions · Sun, Oct 25, 4:25 PM ET | +131at Polymarket | 4 of 5· last 5 games80%needs 43% to break even | -8.5Not beating its price |
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price.
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