This exact bet replayed over each stretch of recent games, against the 58% the best price needs to break even. A short run proves less than a long one: “likely win rate” is the range its true rate probably sits in.
| Games | Record | Likely win rate | Compared with the price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 games | 4 of 580%needs 58% to break even | 44%–95% | 22 points betterwon 80%, needs 58% |
| Last 10 games | 6 of 1060%needs 58% to break even | 35%–81% | 2 points betterwon 60%, needs 58% |
| Last 15 games | 8 of 1553%needs 58% to break even | 33%–72% | 4 points shortwon 53%, needs 58% |
| This season | 4 of 580%needs 58% to break even | 44%–95% | 22 points betterwon 80%, needs 58% |
| Last season | 6 of 1735%needs 58% to break even | 19%–55% | 23 points shortwon 35%, needs 58% |
| Every game | 10 of 2245%needs 58% to break even | 29%–62% | 12 points shortwon 45%, needs 58% |
Tonight MIA plays on the road, as the underdog, after a loss, against NYJ. Tap any of these to count only past games that looked the same; the record and every number below follow.
Click a price to open the bet at that book, or a book's name below for everywhere it has the best price.
Best price at the top. Each row shows what a winning $100 bet pays compared with it.
MIA points in each game against under 17.5, newest first. Ties (pushes) don't count toward the record.
| Date | Opponent | MIA points | Beat 17.5 by | Bet |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| This season | ||||
| Oct 11 | 24 | -6.5 | ||
The same bet at other numbers, surest at the top, replayed over the same games. Where a book offers the number, its best price is beside it.
The numbers the books are posting on the other side.
| Bet | Best price | How often it won | Last 10 games | Trend score | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 14.5 team totalMiami Dolphins · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ET |
This team's other lines in the game.
| Bet | Best price | How often it won | Last 10 games | Trend score | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 39.5 game total, MIA gamesMiami Dolphins · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ET |
| Lost |
| Oct 4 | 10 | +7.5 | Won |
| Sep 27 | 10 | +7.5 | Won |
| Sep 20 | 13 | +4.5 | Won |
| Sep 13 | 13 | +4.5 | Won |
| Last season | ||||
| Jan 4 | 10 | +7.5 | Won | |
| Dec 28 | 20 | -2.5 | Lost |
| Dec 21 | 21 | -3.5 | Lost |
| Dec 15 | 15 | +2.5 | Won |
| Dec 7 | 34 | -16.5 | Lost |
| Nov 30 | 21 | -3.5 | Lost |
| Nov 16 | 16 | +1.5 | Won |
| Nov 9 | 30 | -12.5 | Lost |
| Oct 30 | 6 | +11.5 | Won |
| Oct 26 | 34 | -16.5 | Lost |
| Oct 19 | 6 | +11.5 | Won |
| Oct 12 | 27 | -9.5 | Lost |
| Oct 5 | 24 | -6.5 | Lost |
| Sep 29 | 27 | -9.5 | Lost |
| Sep 18 | 21 | -3.5 | Lost |
| Sep 14 | 27 | -9.5 | Lost |
| Sep 7 | 8 | +9.5 | Won |
| 13 of 17· last season76%needs 64% to break even |
| Record is last season's |
| -23.2Not beating its price |
| Over 16.5 team totalMiami Dolphins · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ET | -121at Kalshi | 11 of 17· last season65%needs 55% to break even | Record is last season's | -22.9Not beating its price |
| Over 17.5 team totalMiami Dolphins · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ET | +105at Kalshi | 11 of 17· last season65%needs 49% to break even | Record is last season's | -18.0Not beating its price |
| Over 20.5 team totalMiami Dolphins · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ET | +181at Kalshi | 10 of 17· last season59%needs 36% to break even | Record is last season's | -11.1Not beating its price |
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price.
| 12 of 17· last season71%needs 49% to break even |
| Record is last season's |
| -5.9Not beating its price |
| Over 36.5 game total, MIA gamesMiami Dolphins · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ET | -161at Kalshi | 15 of 17· last season88%needs 62% to break even | Record is last season's | -6.7Not beating its price |
| Over 41.5 game total, MIA gamesMiami Dolphins · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ET | +124at Kalshi | 11 of 17· last season65%needs 45% to break even | Record is last season's | -8.8Not beating its price |
| Over 35.5 game total, MIA gamesMiami Dolphins · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ET | -183at Kalshi | 15 of 17· last season88%needs 65% to break even | Record is last season's | -9.1Not beating its price |
| Over 40.5 game total, MIA gamesMiami Dolphins · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ET | +109at Kalshi | 12 of 17· last season71%needs 48% to break even | Record is last season's | -10.0Not beating its price |
| Over 37.5 game total, MIA gamesMiami Dolphins · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ET | -137at Kalshi | 13 of 17· last season76%needs 58% to break even | Record is last season's | -10.2Not beating its price |
| Over 38.5 game total, MIA gamesMiami Dolphins · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ET | -121at Kalshi | 12 of 17· last season71%needs 55% to break even | Record is last season's | -10.6Not beating its price |
| MIA -0.5 2nd quarter spreadMiami Dolphins · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ET | +181at Kalshi | 10 of 17· last season59%needs 36% to break even | Record is last season's | -11.9Not beating its price |
| MIA -2.5 2nd quarter spreadMiami Dolphins · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ET | +181at Kalshi | 10 of 17· last season59%needs 36% to break even | Record is last season's | -11.9Not beating its price |
| Over 44.5 game total, MIA gamesMiami Dolphins · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ET | +189at Kalshi | 7 of 17· last season41%needs 35% to break even | Record is last season's | -13.4Not beating its price |
| MIA -0.5 4th quarter spreadMiami Dolphins · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ET | +166at Kalshi | 7 of 15· last 15 games47%needs 38% to break even | -13.9Not beating its price |
| MIA -2.5 4th quarter spreadMiami Dolphins · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ET | +181at Kalshi | 6 of 15· last 15 games40%needs 36% to break even | -14.5Not beating its price |
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price.
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