This exact bet replayed over each stretch of recent games, against the 49% the best price needs to break even. A short run proves less than a long one: “likely win rate” is the range its true rate probably sits in.
| Games | Record | Likely win rate | Compared with the price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 games | 3 of 560%needs 49% to break even | 27%–86% | 11 points betterwon 60%, needs 49% |
| Last 10 games | 7 of 1070%needs 49% to break even | 44%–87% | 21 points betterwon 70%, needs 49% |
| Last 15 games | 9 of 1560%needs 49% to break even | 39%–78% | 11 points betterwon 60%, needs 49% |
| This season | 3 of 560%needs 49% to break even | 27%–86% | 11 points betterwon 60%, needs 49% |
| Last season | 12 of 1771%needs 49% to break even | 51%–85% | 22 points betterwon 71%, needs 49% |
| Every game | 15 of 2268%needs 49% to break even | 51%–82% | 19 points betterwon 68%, needs 49% |
Tonight MIA plays on the road, as the underdog, after a loss, against NYJ. Tap any of these to count only past games that looked the same; the record and every number below follow.
Click a price to open the bet at that book, or a book's name below for everywhere it has the best price.
Best price at the top. Each row shows what a winning $100 bet pays compared with it.
Total points in each game against over 39.5, newest first. Ties (pushes) don't count toward the record.
| Date | Opponent | Total points | Beat 39.5 by | Bet |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| This season | ||||
| Oct 11 | 55 | +15.5 | ||
The same bet at other numbers, surest at the top, replayed over the same games. Where a book offers the number, its best price is beside it.
The numbers the books are posting on the other side.
| Bet | Best price | How often it won | Last 10 games | Trend score | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under 35.5 game total, MIA gamesMiami Dolphins · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ET |
This team's other lines in the game.
| Bet | Best price | How often it won | Last 10 games | Trend score | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 20.5 team totalMiami Dolphins · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ET |
| Won |
| Oct 4 | 25 | -14.5 | Lost |
| Sep 27 | 34 | -5.5 | Lost |
| Sep 20 | 48 | +8.5 | Won |
| Sep 13 | 40 | +0.5 | Won |
| Last season | ||||
| Jan 4 | 48 | +8.5 | Won | |
| Dec 28 | 37 | -2.5 | Lost |
| Dec 21 | 66 | +26.5 | Won |
| Dec 15 | 43 | +3.5 | Won |
| Dec 7 | 44 | +4.5 | Won |
| Nov 30 | 38 | -1.5 | Lost |
| Nov 16 | 29 | -10.5 | Lost |
| Nov 9 | 43 | +3.5 | Won |
| Oct 30 | 34 | -5.5 | Lost |
| Oct 26 | 44 | +4.5 | Won |
| Oct 19 | 37 | -2.5 | Lost |
| Oct 12 | 56 | +16.5 | Won |
| Oct 5 | 51 | +11.5 | Won |
| Sep 29 | 48 | +8.5 | Won |
| Sep 18 | 52 | +12.5 | Won |
| Sep 14 | 60 | +20.5 | Won |
| Sep 7 | 41 | +1.5 | Won |
| 2 of 5· last 5 games40%needs 40% to break even |
| -25.2Not beating its price |
| Under 36.5 game total, MIA gamesMiami Dolphins · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ET | +134at Kalshi | 2 of 5· last 5 games40%needs 43% to break even | -27.7Not beating its price |
| Under 37.5 game total, MIA gamesMiami Dolphins · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ET | +114at Kalshi | 5 of 15· last 15 games33%needs 47% to break even | -27.0Not beating its price |
| Under 38.5 game total, MIA gamesMiami Dolphins · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ET | +101at Kalshi | 6 of 15· last 15 games40%needs 50% to break even | -27.4Not beating its price |
| Under 39.5 game total, MIA gamesMiami Dolphins · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ET | NV-106at Novig | 6 of 15· last 15 games40%needs 51% to break even | -28.8Not beating its price |
| Under 40.5 game total, MIA gamesMiami Dolphins · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ET | -131at Kalshi | 7 of 15· last 15 games47%needs 57% to break even | -28.6Not beating its price |
| Under 41.5 game total, MIA gamesMiami Dolphins · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ET | -148at Kalshi | 7 of 15· last 15 games47%needs 60% to break even | -29.9Not beating its price |
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price.
| 10 of 17· last season59%needs 35% to break even |
| Record is last season's |
| -10.3Not beating its price |
| MIA -0.5 2nd quarter spreadMiami Dolphins · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ET | +173at Kalshi | 10 of 17· last season59%needs 37% to break even | Record is last season's | -12.7Not beating its price |
| MIA -0.5 4th quarter spreadMiami Dolphins · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ET | +166at Kalshi | 7 of 15· last 15 games47%needs 38% to break even | -13.9Not beating its price |
| Under 14.5 team totalMiami Dolphins · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ET | +140at Kalshi | 4 of 5· last 5 games80%needs 42% to break even | -14.5Not beating its price |
| MIA +0.5 1st quarter spreadMiami Dolphins · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ET | -131at Kalshi | 12 of 17· last season71%needs 57% to break even | Record is last season's | -14.7Not beating its price |
| MIA to win moneylineMiami Dolphins · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ET | +195at BetUS | 7 of 17· last season41%needs 34% to break even | Record is last season's | -15.5Not beating its price |
| Over 9.5 1st half team totalMiami Dolphins · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ET | +114at Kalshi | 12 of 17· last season71%needs 47% to break even | Record is last season's | -15.6Not beating its price |
| MIA +0.5 4th quarter spreadMiami Dolphins · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ET | -116at Kalshi | 10 of 15· last 15 games67%needs 54% to break even | -15.8Not beating its price |
| MIA +2.5 1st quarter spreadMiami Dolphins · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ET | -142at Kalshi | 12 of 17· last season71%needs 59% to break even | Record is last season's | -16.3Not beating its price |
| Under 16.5 team totalMiami Dolphins · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ET | -107at Kalshi | 4 of 5· last 5 games80%needs 52% to break even | -16.6Not beating its price |
| MIA -0.5 1st half spreadMiami Dolphins · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ET | +181at Kalshi | 8 of 17· last season47%needs 36% to break even | Record is last season's | -16.7Not beating its price |
| Over 17.5 team totalMiami Dolphins · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ET | +109at Kalshi | 11 of 17· last season65%needs 48% to break even | Record is last season's | -17.3Not beating its price |
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price.
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