This exact bet replayed over each stretch of recent games, against the 68% the best price needs to break even. A short run proves less than a long one: “likely win rate” is the range its true rate probably sits in.
| Games | Record | Likely win rate | Compared with the price | Average |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 games | 5 of 5100%needs 68% to break even | 65%–100% | 32 points betterwon 100%, needs 68% | 3.2receptions |
| Last 10 games | 10 of 10100%needs 68% to break even | 79%–100% | 32 points betterwon 100%, needs 68% | 3.1receptions |
| Last 15 games | 12 of 1392%needs 68% to break even | 72%–98% | 24 points betterwon 92%, needs 68% | 3receptions |
| This season | 4 of 4100%needs 68% to break even | 60%–100% | 32 points betterwon 100%, needs 68% | 3.3receptions |
| Last season |
Tonight MIA plays on the road, as the underdog, after a loss, against NYJ. Tap any of these to count only past games that looked the same; the record and every number below follow.
This season and last: 5 of 5 on the road. Tonight: NYJ allows 4.7 receptions a game to tight ends, the 9th fewest of 32 defenses (the average defense allows 5.5): a tough matchup for this bet. How NYJ defends tight ends
Click a price to open the bet at that book, or a book's name below for everywhere it has the best price.
Best price at the top. Each row shows what a winning $100 bet pays compared with it.
Receptions in each game against over 1.5, newest first. Ties (pushes) don't count toward the record.
The same bet at other numbers, surest at the top, replayed over the same games. Where a book offers the number, its best price is beside it.
The numbers the books are posting on the other side.
This player's other props in the game.
| 8 of 989%needs 68% to break even |
| 62%–97% |
| 21 points betterwon 89%, needs 68% |
| 2.9receptions |
| Every game | 12 of 1392%needs 68% to break even | 72%–98% | 24 points betterwon 92%, needs 68% | 3receptions |
| Wk 2 | 2 | +0.5 | Won |
| Wk 1 | 2 | +0.5 | Won |
| Last season | ||||
| Wk 18 | 3 | +1.5 | Won | |
| Wk 17 | 5 | +3.5 | Won |
| Wk 16 | 3 | +1.5 | Won |
| Wk 15 | 2 | +0.5 | Won |
| Wk 14 | 3 | +1.5 | Won |
| Wk 13 | 2 | +0.5 | Won |
| Wk 11 | 2 | +0.5 | Won |
| Wk 10 | 1 | -0.5 | Lost |
| Wk 9 | 5 | +3.5 | Won |
| +166at Kalshi |
| 1 of 9· last season11%needs 38% to break even0 of 5 on the road |
| Record is last season's |
| -26.4Not beating its price |
| Under 2.5 receptionsGreg Dulcich · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ET | -150at BetMGM | 6 of 13· last 15 games, 2 skipped46%needs 60% to break even3 of 5 on the road | -28.6Not beating its price |
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. A thin upright line marks where this season starts. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price.
| -189at DraftKings |
| 13 of 13· last 15 games, 2 skipped100%needs 65% to break even5 of 5 on the road |
| Won last 13 in a row |
| 5.6Good |
| Over 29.5 receiving yardsGreg Dulcich · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ET | +166at DraftKings | 7 of 10· last 10 games70%needs 38% to break even3 of 5 on the road | -2.3Not beating its price |
| Over 20.5 receiving yardsGreg Dulcich · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ET | -114at DraftKings | 8 of 9· last season89%needs 53% to break even3 of 5 on the road | Record is last season's | -6.0Not beating its price |
| Over 21.5 receiving yardsGreg Dulcich · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ET | -114at FanDuel | 8 of 9· last season89%needs 53% to break even3 of 5 on the road | Record is last season's | -6.0Not beating its price |
| Over 19.5 receiving yardsGreg Dulcich · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ET | -123at DraftKings | 8 of 9· last season89%needs 55% to break even3 of 5 on the road | Record is last season's | -7.4Not beating its price |
| Over 24.5 receiving yardsGreg Dulcich · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ET | +117at DraftKings | 7 of 10· last 10 games70%needs 46% to break even3 of 5 on the road | -8.5Not beating its price |
| Over 31.5 receiving yardsGreg Dulcich · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ET | +140at BetOnline | 6 of 10· last 10 games60%needs 42% to break even2 of 5 on the road | -10.7Not beating its price |
| Scores a TDGreg Dulcich · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ET | +475at BetMGM | 1 of 9· last season11%needs 17% to break even0 of 5 on the road | Record is last season's | -11.5Not beating its price |
| Under 14.5 receiving yardsGreg Dulcich · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ET | +152at Kalshi | 0 of 5· last 5 games0%needs 40% to break even0 of 5 on the road | -28.7Not beating its price |
| Under 19.5 receiving yardsGreg Dulcich · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ET | +101at Kalshi | 2 of 4· this season50%needs 50% to break even2 of 5 on the road | Record is this season's | -28.9Not beating its price |
| Under 20.5 receiving yardsGreg Dulcich · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ET | -110at DraftKings | 2 of 4· this season50%needs 52% to break even2 of 5 on the road | Record is this season's | -30.8Not beating its price |
| Under 24.5 receiving yardsGreg Dulcich · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ET | -142at Kalshi | 5 of 13· last 15 games, 2 skipped38%needs 59% to break even2 of 5 on the road | -30.9Not beating its price |
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. A thin upright line marks where this season starts. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price. A yes-or-no bet (a draw, both teams to score, a TD) shows one same-size bar per game, green when it won.
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