This exact bet replayed over each stretch of recent games, against the 39% the best price needs to break even. A short run proves less than a long one: “likely win rate” is the range its true rate probably sits in.
| Games | Record | Likely win rate | Compared with the price | Average |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 games | 3 of 560%needs 39% to break even | 27%–86% | 21 points betterwon 60%, needs 39% | 31.6receiving yards |
| Last 10 games | 7 of 1070%needs 39% to break even | 44%–87% | 31 points betterwon 70%, needs 39% | 37.3receiving yards |
| Last 15 games | 8 of 1362%needs 39% to break even | 39%–80% | 23 points betterwon 62%, needs 39% | 35.5receiving yards |
| This season | 2 of 450%needs 39% to break even | 18%–82% | 11 points betterwon 50%, needs 39% | 31.8receiving yards |
| Last season | 6 of 967%needs 39% to break even | 40%–86% | 28 points betterwon 67%, needs 39% | 37.2receiving yards |
| Every game | 8 of 1362%needs 39% to break even | 39%–80% | 23 points betterwon 62%, needs 39% | 35.5receiving yards |
Tonight MIA plays on the road, as the underdog, after a loss, against NYJ. Tap any of these to count only past games that looked the same; the record and every number below follow.
This season and last: 3 of 5 on the road. Tonight: NYJ allows 41.7 receiving yards a game to tight ends, the 7th fewest of 32 defenses (the average defense allows 54.2): a tough matchup for this bet. How NYJ defends tight ends
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Best price at the top. Each row shows what a winning $100 bet pays compared with it.
Receiving yards in each game against over 29.5, newest first. Ties (pushes) don't count toward the record.
The same bet at other numbers, surest at the top, replayed over the same games. Where a book offers the number, its best price is beside it.
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The numbers the books are posting on the other side.
| Bet | Best price | How often it won | Last 10 games | Trend score | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under 14.5 receiving yardsGreg Dulcich · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ET | +146at Kalshi | 0 of 5· last 5 games0%needs 41% to break even0 of 5 on the road | -29.4Not beating its price | ||
| Under 19.5 receiving yardsGreg Dulcich · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ET | +101at Kalshi | 2 of 4· this season50%needs 50% to break even2 of 5 on the road | Record is this season's | -28.9Not beating its price | |
| Under 20.5 receiving yardsGreg Dulcich · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ET | -109at DraftKings | 2 of 4· this season50%needs 52% to break even2 of 5 on the road | Record is this season's | -30.7Not beating its price | |
| Under 21.5 receiving yardsGreg Dulcich · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ET | -110at BetMGM | 2 of 4· this season50%needs 52% to break even2 of 5 on the road | Record is this season's | -30.8Not beating its price | |
| Under 24.5 receiving yardsGreg Dulcich · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ET | -148at Kalshi | 5 of 13· last 15 games, 2 skipped38%needs 60% to break even2 of 5 on the road | -31.6Not beating its price |
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. A thin upright line marks where this season starts. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price.
This player's other props in the game.
| Bet | Best price | How often it won | Last 10 games | Trend score | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 receptionsGreg Dulcich · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ET | +128at BetRivers | 6 of 10· last 10 games60%needs 44% to break even2 of 5 on the road | -10.8Not beating its price | ||
| Under 1.5 receptionsGreg Dulcich · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ET | +166at Kalshi | 1 of 9· last season11%needs 38% to break even0 of 5 on the road | Record is last season's | -26.4Not beating its price | |
| Under 2.5 receptionsGreg Dulcich · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ET | -147at DraftKings | 6 of 13· last 15 games, 2 skipped46%needs 60% to break even3 of 5 on the road | -28.3Not beating its price |
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. A thin upright line marks where this season starts. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price.