This exact bet replayed over each stretch of recent games, against the 41% the best price needs to break even. A short run proves less than a long one: “likely win rate” is the range its true rate probably sits in.
| Games | Record | Likely win rate | Compared with the price | Average |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 games | 0 of 50%needs 41% to break even | 0%–35% | 41 points shortwon 0%, needs 41% | 31.6receiving yards |
| Last 10 games | 0 of 100%needs 41% to break even | 0%–21% | 41 points shortwon 0%, needs 41% | 37.3receiving yards |
| Last 15 games | 0 of 130%needs 41% to break even | 0%–17% | 41 points shortwon 0%, needs 41% | 35.5receiving yards |
| This season | 0 of 40%needs 41% to break even | 0%–40% | 41 points shortwon 0%, needs 41% | 31.8receiving yards |
| Last season | 0 of 90% |
Tonight MIA plays on the road, as the underdog, after a loss, against NYJ. Tap any of these to count only past games that looked the same; the record and every number below follow.
This season and last: 0 of 5 on the road. Tonight: NYJ allows 41.7 receiving yards a game to tight ends, the 7th fewest of 32 defenses (the average defense allows 54.2): an easy matchup for this bet. How NYJ defends tight ends
Click a price to open the bet at that book, or a book's name below for everywhere it has the best price.
Best price at the top. Each row shows what a winning $100 bet pays compared with it.
Receiving yards in each game against under 14.5, newest first. Ties (pushes) don't count toward the record.
| Date | Opponent | Receiving yards | Beat 14.5 by | Bet |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| This season | ||||
| Wk 5 | 37 | -22.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 3 | ||||
The same bet at other numbers, surest at the top, replayed over the same games. Where a book offers the number, its best price is beside it.
The numbers the books are posting on the other side.
This player's other props in the game.
| 0%–23% |
| 41 points shortwon 0%, needs 41% |
| 37.2receiving yards |
| Every game | 0 of 130%needs 41% to break even | 0%–17% | 41 points shortwon 0%, needs 41% | 35.5receiving yards |
| 55 |
| -40.5 |
| Lost |
| Wk 2 | 17 | -2.5 | Lost |
| Wk 1 | 18 | -3.5 | Lost |
| Last season | ||||
| Wk 18 | 31 | -16.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 17 | 58 | -43.5 | Lost |
| Wk 16 | 46 | -31.5 | Lost |
| Wk 15 | 46 | -31.5 | Lost |
| Wk 14 | 41 | -26.5 | Lost |
| Wk 13 | 24 | -9.5 | Lost |
| Wk 11 | 18 | -3.5 | Lost |
| Wk 10 | 22 | -7.5 | Lost |
| Wk 9 | 49 | -34.5 | Lost |
| -199at Kalshi |
| 13 of 13· last 15 games, 2 skipped100%needs 67% to break even5 of 5 on the road |
| Won last 13 in a row |
| 4.8Good |
| Over 19.5 receiving yardsGreg Dulcich · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ET | -126at Kalshi | 8 of 9· last season89%needs 56% to break even3 of 5 on the road | Record is last season's | -7.8Not beating its price |
| Over 20.5 receiving yardsGreg Dulcich · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ET | -115at DraftKings | 8 of 9· last season89%needs 53% to break even3 of 5 on the road | Record is last season's | -6.2Not beating its price |
| Over 21.5 receiving yardsGreg Dulcich · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ET | -114at FanDuel | 8 of 9· last season89%needs 53% to break even3 of 5 on the road | Record is last season's | -6.0Not beating its price |
| Over 24.5 receiving yardsGreg Dulcich · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ET | +114at Kalshi | 7 of 10· last 10 games70%needs 47% to break even3 of 5 on the road | -8.9Not beating its price |
| Over 29.5 receiving yardsGreg Dulcich · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ET | +159at Kalshi | 7 of 10· last 10 games70%needs 39% to break even3 of 5 on the road | -3.1Not beating its price |
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. A thin upright line marks where this season starts. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price.
| +128at BetRivers |
| 6 of 10· last 10 games60%needs 44% to break even2 of 5 on the road |
| -10.8Not beating its price |
| Under 1.5 receptionsGreg Dulcich · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ET | +166at Kalshi | 1 of 9· last season11%needs 38% to break even0 of 5 on the road | Record is last season's | -26.4Not beating its price |
| Under 2.5 receptionsGreg Dulcich · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ET | -147at DraftKings | 6 of 13· last 15 games, 2 skipped46%needs 60% to break even3 of 5 on the road | -28.3Not beating its price |
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. A thin upright line marks where this season starts. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price.
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