This exact bet replayed over each stretch of recent games, against the 63% the best price needs to break even. A short run proves less than a long one: “likely win rate” is the range its true rate probably sits in.
| Games | Record | Likely win rate | Compared with the price | Average |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 games | 1 of 520%needs 63% to break even | 5%–56% | 43 points shortwon 20%, needs 63% | 3receptions |
| Last 10 games | 4 of 1040%needs 63% to break even | 19%–65% | 23 points shortwon 40%, needs 63% | 3.3receptions |
| Last 15 games | 8 of 1553%needs 63% to break even | 33%–72% | 10 points shortwon 53%, needs 63% | 2.5receptions |
| This season | 0 of 20%needs 63% to break even | 0%–58% | 63 points shortwon 0%, needs 63% | 4.5receptions |
| Last season | 11 of 1669% |
Tonight NYJ plays at home, as the favorite, after a loss, against MIA. Tap any of these to count only past games that looked the same; the record and every number below follow.
This season and last: 5 of 8 at home. Tonight: MIA allows 9.8 receptions a game to wide receivers, the 7th fewest of 32 defenses (the average defense allows 11.5): an easy matchup for this bet. How MIA defends wide receivers
Click a price to open the bet at that book, or a book's name below for everywhere it has the best price.
Best price at the top. Each row shows what a winning $100 bet pays compared with it.
Receptions in each game against under 2.5, newest first. Ties (pushes) don't count toward the record.
The same bet at other numbers, surest at the top, replayed over the same games. Where a book offers the number, its best price is beside it.
The numbers the books are posting on the other side.
This player's other props in the game.
| 48%–84% |
| 6 points betterwon 69%, needs 63% |
| 2.1receptions |
| Every game | 11 of 1861%needs 63% to break even | 42%–77% | 2 points shortwon 61%, needs 63% | 2.3receptions |
| 6 |
| -3.5 |
| Lost |
| Wk 1 | 3 | -0.5 | Lost |
| Last season | ||||
| Wk 18 | 0 | +2.5 | Won | |
| Wk 17 | 3 | -0.5 | Lost |
| Wk 16 | 3 | -0.5 | Lost |
| Wk 15 | 6 | -3.5 | Lost |
| Wk 14 | 1 | +1.5 | Won |
| Wk 13 | 8 | -5.5 | Lost |
| Wk 12 | 2 | +0.5 | Won |
| Wk 11 | 1 | +1.5 | Won |
| Wk 9 | 1 | +1.5 | Won |
| Wk 8 | 0 | +2.5 | Won |
| Wk 7 | 1 | +1.5 | Won |
| Wk 5 | 0 | +2.5 | Won |
| Wk 4 | 3 | -0.5 | Lost |
| Wk 3 | 0 | +2.5 | Won |
| Wk 2 | 2 | +0.5 | Won |
| Wk 1 | 2 | +0.5 | Won |
| -169at BetOnline |
| 7 of 10· last 10 games70%needs 63% to break even5 of 8 at home |
| -20.0Not beating its price |
| Over 2.5 receptionsAdonai Mitchell · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ET | +146at Kalshi | 4 of 5· last 5 games80%needs 41% to break even3 of 8 at home | -9.2Not beating its price |
| Over 3.5 receptionsAdonai Mitchell · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ET | +373at Kalshi | 3 of 10· last 10 games30%needs 21% to break even2 of 8 at home | -10.7Not beating its price |
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. A thin upright line marks where this season starts. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price.
| +192at DraftKings |
| 6 of 10· last 10 games60%needs 34% to break even2 of 8 at home |
| -6.6Not beating its price |
| Scores a TDAdonai Mitchell · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ET | +400at DraftKings | 2 of 10· last 10 games20%needs 20% to break even1 of 8 at home | -12.4Not beating its price |
| Over 35.5 receiving yardsAdonai Mitchell · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ET | +125at BetOnline | 6 of 10· last 10 games60%needs 44% to break even2 of 8 at home | -14.5Not beating its price |
| Under 14.5 receiving yardsAdonai Mitchell · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ET | +181at Kalshi | 7 of 16· last season44%needs 36% to break even2 of 8 at home | Record is last season's | -15.2Not beating its price |
| Over 19.5 receiving yardsAdonai Mitchell · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ET | -174at DraftKings | 8 of 10· last 10 games80%needs 64% to break even6 of 8 at home | -16.1Not beating its price |
| Under 24.5 receiving yardsAdonai Mitchell · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ET | -107at Kalshi | 11 of 16· last season69%needs 52% to break even6 of 8 at home | Record is last season's | -16.3Not beating its price |
| Over 29.5 receiving yardsAdonai Mitchell · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ET | +111at DraftKings | 6 of 10· last 10 games60%needs 47% to break even2 of 8 at home | -16.9Not beating its price |
| Over 45.5 receiving yardsAdonai Mitchell · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ET | +177at BetOnline | 4 of 10· last 10 games40%needs 36% to break even2 of 8 at home | -17.1Not beating its price |
| Under 25.5 receiving yardsAdonai Mitchell · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ET | -113at DraftKings | 11 of 16· last season69%needs 53% to break even6 of 8 at home | Record is last season's | -17.3Not beating its price |
| Under 26.5 receiving yardsAdonai Mitchell · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ET | -114at FanDuel | 11 of 16· last season69%needs 53% to break even6 of 8 at home | Record is last season's | -17.5Not beating its price |
| Over 25.5 receiving yardsAdonai Mitchell · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ET | -111at DraftKings | 6 of 10· last 10 games60%needs 53% to break even2 of 8 at home | -20.9Not beating its price |
| Over 26.5 receiving yardsAdonai Mitchell · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ET | -114at FanDuel | 6 of 10· last 10 games60%needs 53% to break even2 of 8 at home | -21.5Not beating its price |
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. A thin upright line marks where this season starts. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price. A yes-or-no bet (a draw, both teams to score, a TD) shows one same-size bar per game, green when it won.
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