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NFLPlayer propReceptions
Adonai Mitchell over 2.5 receptions
Won4 of 5last 5 games · 80%
Best price+146Kalshi
Price needs40.7%wins to break even
Every game7 of 18this season and last
Trend score-9.2Not beating its price
How often it won
This exact bet replayed over each stretch of recent games, against the 41% the best price needs to break even. A short run proves less than a long one: “likely win rate” is the range its true rate probably sits in.
| Games | Record | Likely win rate | Compared with the price | Average |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 games | 4 of 580%needs 41% to break even | 44%–95% | 39 points betterwon 80%, needs 41% | 3receptions |
| Last 10 games | 6 of 1060%needs 41% to break even | 35%–81% | 19 points betterwon 60%, needs 41% | 3.3receptions |
| Last 15 games | 7 of 1547%needs 41% to break even | 28%–67% | 6 points betterwon 47%, needs 41% | 2.5receptions |
| This season | 2 of 2100%needs 41% to break even | 42%–100% | 59 points betterwon 100%, needs 41% | 4.5receptions |
| Last season | 5 of 1631%needs 41% to break even | 16%–52% | 9 points shortwon 31%, needs 41% | 2.1receptions |
| Every game | 7 of 1839%needs 41% to break even | 23%–58% | 2 points shortwon 39%, needs 41% | 2.3receptions |
Games like tonight
Tonight NYJ plays at home, as the favorite, after a loss, against MIA. Tap any of these to count only past games that looked the same; the record and every number below follow.
This season and last: 3 of 8 at home. Tonight: MIA allows 9.8 receptions a game to wide receivers, the 7th fewest of 32 defenses (the average defense allows 11.5): a tough matchup for this bet. How MIA defends wide receivers
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Every book's price
Click a price to open the bet at that book, or a book's name below for everywhere it has the best price.
Adonai Mitchell over 2.5 receptions7 books
Best price at the top. Each row shows what a winning $100 bet pays compared with it.
Every game behind it
Receptions in each game against over 2.5, newest first. Ties (pushes) don't count toward the record.
| Date | Opponent | Receptions | Beat 2.5 by | Bet |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| This season | ||||
| Wk 2 |  GB | 6 | +3.5 | Won |
| Wk 1 |  TEN | 3 | +0.5 | Won |
| Last season | ||||
| Wk 18 |  BUF | 0 | -2.5 | Lost |
| Wk 17 |  NE | 3 | +0.5 | Won |
| Wk 16 |  NO | 3 | +0.5 | Won |
| Wk 15 |  JAX | 6 | +3.5 | Won |
| Wk 14 |  MIA | 1 | -1.5 | Lost |
| Wk 13 |  ATL | 8 | +5.5 | Won |
| Wk 12 |  BAL | 2 | -0.5 | Lost |
| Wk 11 | NE | 1 | -1.5 | Lost |
| Wk 9 |  PIT | 1 | -1.5 | Lost |
| Wk 8 | TEN | 0 | -2.5 | Lost |
| Wk 7 |  LAC | 1 | -1.5 | Lost |
| Wk 5 |  LV | 0 | -2.5 | Lost |
| Wk 4 |  LAR | 3 | +0.5 | Won |
| Wk 3 | TEN | 0 | -2.5 | Lost |
| Wk 2 |  DEN | 2 | -0.5 | Lost |
| Wk 1 | MIA | 2 | -0.5 | Lost |
Every number on this bet
The same bet at other numbers, surest at the top, replayed over the same games. Where a book offers the number, its best price is beside it.
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The opposite bet
The numbers the books are posting on the other side.
| Bet | Best price | How often it won | Last 10 games | Trend score | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under 1.5 receptionsAdonai Mitchell · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ET |  +148at FanDuel | 8 of 16· last season50%needs 40% to break even3 of 8 at home | Record is last season's | -15.4Not beating its price | |
| Under 2.5 receptionsAdonai Mitchell · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ET |  -172at BetOnline | 11 of 16· last season69%needs 63% to break even5 of 8 at home | Record is last season's | -26.7Not beating its price |
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. A thin upright line marks where this season starts. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price.
More on Adonai Mitchell in this game
This player's other props in the game.
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. A thin upright line marks where this season starts. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price. A yes-or-no bet (a draw, both teams to score, a TD) shows one same-size bar per game, green when it won.