This exact bet replayed over each stretch of recent games, against the 20% the best price needs to break even. A short run proves less than a long one: “likely win rate” is the range its true rate probably sits in.
| Games | Record | Likely win rate | Compared with the price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 games | 0 of 50%needs 20% to break even | 0%–35% | 20 points shortwon 0%, needs 20% |
| Last 10 games | 2 of 1020%needs 20% to break even | 7%–46% | evenwon 20%, needs 20% |
| Last 15 games | 2 of 1513%needs 20% to break even | 5%–33% | 7 points shortwon 13%, needs 20% |
| This season | 0 of 20%needs 20% to break even | 0%–58% | 20 points shortwon 0%, needs 20% |
| Last season | 2 of 1613%needs 20% to break even | 4%–32% | 8 points shortwon 13%, needs 20% |
| Every game | 2 of 1811%needs 20% to break even | 4%–29% | 9 points shortwon 11%, needs 20% |
Tonight NYJ plays at home, as the favorite, after a loss, against MIA. Tap any of these to count only past games that looked the same; the record and every number below follow.
This season and last: 1 of 8 at home. Tonight: MIA allows 0.4 touchdowns a game to wide receivers, the 2nd fewest of 32 defenses (the average defense allows 0.9): a tough matchup for this bet. How MIA defends wide receivers
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Best price at the top. Each row shows what a winning $100 bet pays compared with it.
Every Adonai Mitchell game, newest first: whether Mitchell scored a touchdown.
| Date | Opponent | Result | Bet |
|---|---|---|---|
| This season | |||
| Wk 2 | No TD | Lost | |
| Wk 1 | No TD | Lost | |
| Last season | |||
| Wk 18 | No TD | Lost | |
| Wk 17 | No TD | Lost | |
| Wk 16 | No TD | Lost | |
| Wk 15 | 1 TD | Won | |
| Wk 14 | No TD | Lost | |
| Wk 13 | 1 TD | Won | |
| Wk 12 | No TD | Lost | |
| Wk 11 | No TD | Lost | |
| Wk 9 | No TD | Lost | |
| Wk 8 | No TD | Lost | |
| Wk 7 | No TD | Lost | |
| Wk 5 | No TD | Lost | |
| Wk 4 | No TD | Lost | |
| Wk 3 | No TD | Lost | |
| Wk 2 | No TD | Lost | |
| Wk 1 | No TD | Lost | |
This player's other props in the game.
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. A thin upright line marks where this season starts. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price.