This exact bet replayed over each stretch of recent games, against the 53% the best price needs to break even. A short run proves less than a long one: “likely win rate” is the range its true rate probably sits in.
| Games | Record | Likely win rate | Compared with the price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 games | 5 of 5100%needs 53% to break even | 65%–100% | 47 points betterwon 100%, needs 53% |
| Last 10 games | 5 of 1050%needs 53% to break even | 27%–73% | 3 points shortwon 50%, needs 53% |
| Last 15 games | 7 of 1547%needs 53% to break even | 28%–67% | 6 points shortwon 47%, needs 53% |
| This season | 5 of 5100%needs 53% to break even | 65%–100% | 47 points betterwon 100%, needs 53% |
| Last season | 2 of 1712%needs 53% to break even | 4%–30% | 41 points shortwon 12%, needs 53% |
| Every game | 7 of 2232%needs 53% to break even | 18%–49% | 21 points shortwon 32%, needs 53% |
Tonight MIA plays on the road, as the underdog, after a loss, against NYJ. Tap any of these to count only past games that looked the same; the record and every number below follow.
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Click a price to open the bet at that book, or a book's name below for everywhere it has the best price.
Best price at the top. Each row shows what a winning $100 bet pays compared with it.
Receiving yards in each game against over 39.5, newest first. Ties (pushes) don't count toward the record.
| Date | Opponent | Receiving yards | Beat 39.5 by | Bet |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| This season | ||||
| Wk 5 | 43 | +3.5 | Won | |
| Wk 4 | 67 | +27.5 | Won | |
| Wk 3 | 56 | +16.5 | Won | |
| Wk 2 | 43 | +3.5 | Won | |
| Wk 1 | 53 | +13.5 | Won | |
| Last season | ||||
| Wk 18 | 6 | -33.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 17 | 4 | -35.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 16 | 23 | -16.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 15 | 10 | -29.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 14 | 10 | -29.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 13 | 30 | -9.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 11 | 42 | +2.5 | Won | |
| Wk 10 | 9 | -30.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 9 | 48 | +8.5 | Won | |
| Wk 8 | 36 | -3.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 7 | 30 | -9.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 6 | 22 | -17.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 5 | 0 | -39.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 4 | 13 | -26.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 3 | 12 | -27.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 2 | 2 | -37.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 1 | 20 | -19.5 | Lost | |
The same bet at other numbers, surest at the top, replayed over the same games. Where a book offers the number, its best price is beside it.
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The numbers the books are posting on the other side.
| Bet | Best price | How often it won | Last 10 games | Trend score | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under 39.5 receiving yardsMalik Washington · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ET | -121at Kalshi | 15 of 17· last season88%needs 55% to break even | Record is last season's | -14.5Not beating its price | |
| Under 40.5 receiving yardsMalik Washington · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ET | -118at BetRivers | 15 of 17· last season88%needs 54% to break even | Record is last season's | -14.0Not beating its price | |
| Under 41.5 receiving yardsMalik Washington · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ET | -113at DraftKings | 15 of 17· last season88%needs 53% to break even | Record is last season's | -13.1Not beating its price | |
| Under 43.5 receiving yardsMalik Washington · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ET | -115at BetMGM | 16 of 17· last season94%needs 53% to break even | Record is last season's | -2.1Not beating its price |
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price.
This player's other props in the game.
| Bet | Best price | How often it won | Last 10 games | Trend score | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under 4.5 receptionsMalik Washington · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ET | -150at BetMGM | 16 of 17· last season94%needs 60% to break even | Record is last season's | -5.9Not beating its price | |
| Under 3.5 receptionsMalik Washington · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ET | +114at Kalshi | 12 of 17· last season71%needs 47% to break even | Record is last season's | -9.3Not beating its price | |
| Over 4.5 receptionsMalik Washington · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ET | +129at Kalshi | 3 of 5· last 5 games60%needs 44% to break even | -26.8Not beating its price | ||
| Over 3.5 receptionsMalik Washington · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ET | -161at Kalshi | 4 of 5· last 5 games80%needs 62% to break even | -31.3Not beating its price |
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price.