This exact bet replayed over each stretch of recent games, against the 53% the best price needs to break even. A short run proves less than a long one: “likely win rate” is the range its true rate probably sits in.
| Games | Record | Likely win rate | Compared with the price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 games | 2 of 540%needs 53% to break even | 14%–73% | 13 points shortwon 40%, needs 53% |
| Last 10 games | 7 of 1070%needs 53% to break even | 44%–87% | 17 points betterwon 70%, needs 53% |
| Last 15 games | 11 of 1573%needs 53% to break even | 52%–87% | 20 points betterwon 73%, needs 53% |
| This season | 2 of 540%needs 53% to break even | 14%–73% | 13 points shortwon 40%, needs 53% |
| Last season | 16 of 1794%needs 53% to break even | 77%–99% | 41 points betterwon 94%, needs 53% |
| Every game |
Tonight MIA plays on the road, as the underdog, after a loss, against NYJ. Tap any of these to count only past games that looked the same; the record and every number below follow.
Click a price to open the bet at that book, or a book's name below for everywhere it has the best price.
Best price at the top. Each row shows what a winning $100 bet pays compared with it.
Receiving yards in each game against under 43.5, newest first. Ties (pushes) don't count toward the record.
| Date | Opponent | Receiving yards | Beat 43.5 by | Bet |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| This season | ||||
| Wk 5 | 43 | |||
The same bet at other numbers, surest at the top, replayed over the same games. Where a book offers the number, its best price is beside it.
The numbers the books are posting on the other side.
| Bet | Best price | How often it won | Last 10 games | Trend score | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 39.5 receiving yardsMalik Washington |
This player's other props in the game.
| Bet | Best price | How often it won | Last 10 games | Trend score | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under 4.5 receptionsMalik Washington |
| 18 of 2282%needs 53% to break even |
| 65%–92% |
| 28 points betterwon 82%, needs 53% |
| +0.5 |
| Won |
| Wk 4 | 67 | -23.5 | Lost |
| Wk 3 | 56 | -12.5 | Lost |
| Wk 2 | 43 | +0.5 | Won |
| Wk 1 | 53 | -9.5 | Lost |
| Last season | ||||
| Wk 18 | 6 | +37.5 | Won | |
| Wk 17 | 4 | +39.5 | Won |
| Wk 16 | 23 | +20.5 | Won |
| Wk 15 | 10 | +33.5 | Won |
| Wk 14 | 10 | +33.5 | Won |
| Wk 13 | 30 | +13.5 | Won |
| Wk 11 | 42 | +1.5 | Won |
| Wk 10 | 9 | +34.5 | Won |
| Wk 9 | 48 | -4.5 | Lost |
| Wk 8 | 36 | +7.5 | Won |
| Wk 7 | 30 | +13.5 | Won |
| Wk 6 | 22 | +21.5 | Won |
| Wk 5 | 0 | +43.5 | Won |
| Wk 4 | 13 | +30.5 | Won |
| Wk 3 | 12 | +31.5 | Won |
| Wk 2 | 2 | +41.5 | Won |
| Wk 1 | 20 | +23.5 | Won |
| -112at Kalshi |
| 5 of 5· last 5 games100%needs 53% to break even |
| -21.0Not beating its price |
| Over 40.5 receiving yardsMalik Washington · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ET | -110at Fanatics | 5 of 5· last 5 games100%needs 52% to break even | -20.6Not beating its price |
| Over 41.5 receiving yardsMalik Washington · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ET | -111at DraftKings | 5 of 5· last 5 games100%needs 53% to break even | -20.8Not beating its price |
| Over 43.5 receiving yardsMalik Washington · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ET | -115at BetMGM | 3 of 5· last 5 games60%needs 53% to break even | -33.9Not beating its price |
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price.
| -150at BetMGM |
| 16 of 17· last season94%needs 60% to break even |
| Record is last season's |
| -5.9Not beating its price |
| Under 3.5 receptionsMalik Washington · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ET | +114at Kalshi | 12 of 17· last season71%needs 47% to break even | Record is last season's | -9.3Not beating its price |
| Over 4.5 receptionsMalik Washington · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ET | +129at Kalshi | 3 of 5· last 5 games60%needs 44% to break even | -26.8Not beating its price |
| Over 3.5 receptionsMalik Washington · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ET | -161at Kalshi | 4 of 5· last 5 games80%needs 62% to break even | -31.3Not beating its price |
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price.
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