This exact bet replayed over each stretch of recent games, against the 54% the best price needs to break even. A short run proves less than a long one: “likely win rate” is the range its true rate probably sits in.
| Games | Record | Likely win rate | Compared with the price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 games | 0 of 50%needs 54% to break even | 0%–35% | 54 points shortwon 0%, needs 54% |
| Last 10 games | 5 of 1050%needs 54% to break even | 27%–73% | 4 points shortwon 50%, needs 54% |
| Last 15 games | 8 of 1553%needs 54% to break even | 33%–72% | 1 points shortwon 53%, needs 54% |
| This season | 0 of 50%needs 54% to break even | 0%–35% | 54 points shortwon 0%, needs 54% |
| Last season | 15 of 1788%needs 54% to break even | 70%–96% | 34 points betterwon 88%, needs 54% |
| Every game | 15 of 2268%needs 54% to break even | 51%–82% | 14 points betterwon 68%, needs 54% |
Tonight MIA plays on the road, as the underdog, after a loss, against NYJ. Tap any of these to count only past games that looked the same; the record and every number below follow.
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Click a price to open the bet at that book, or a book's name below for everywhere it has the best price.
Best price at the top. Each row shows what a winning $100 bet pays compared with it.
Receiving yards in each game against under 40.5, newest first. Ties (pushes) don't count toward the record.
| Date | Opponent | Receiving yards | Beat 40.5 by | Bet |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| This season | ||||
| Wk 5 | 43 | -2.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 4 | 67 | -26.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 3 | 56 | -15.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 2 | 43 | -2.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 1 | 53 | -12.5 | Lost | |
| Last season | ||||
| Wk 18 | 6 | +34.5 | Won | |
| Wk 17 | 4 | +36.5 | Won | |
| Wk 16 | 23 | +17.5 | Won | |
| Wk 15 | 10 | +30.5 | Won | |
| Wk 14 | 10 | +30.5 | Won | |
| Wk 13 | 30 | +10.5 | Won | |
| Wk 11 | 42 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 10 | 9 | +31.5 | Won | |
| Wk 9 | 48 | -7.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 8 | 36 | +4.5 | Won | |
| Wk 7 | 30 | +10.5 | Won | |
| Wk 6 | 22 | +18.5 | Won | |
| Wk 5 | 0 | +40.5 | Won | |
| Wk 4 | 13 | +27.5 | Won | |
| Wk 3 | 12 | +28.5 | Won | |
| Wk 2 | 2 | +38.5 | Won | |
| Wk 1 | 20 | +20.5 | Won | |
The same bet at other numbers, surest at the top, replayed over the same games. Where a book offers the number, its best price is beside it.
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The numbers the books are posting on the other side.
| Bet | Best price | How often it won | Last 10 games | Trend score | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 39.5 receiving yardsMalik Washington · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ET | -116at Kalshi | 5 of 5· last 5 games100%needs 54% to break even | -21.7Not beating its price | ||
| Over 40.5 receiving yardsMalik Washington · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ET | -110at Fanatics | 5 of 5· last 5 games100%needs 52% to break even | -20.6Not beating its price | ||
| Over 41.5 receiving yardsMalik Washington · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ET | -111at DraftKings | 5 of 5· last 5 games100%needs 53% to break even | -20.8Not beating its price | ||
| Over 43.5 receiving yardsMalik Washington · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ET | -115at BetMGM | 3 of 5· last 5 games60%needs 53% to break even | -33.9Not beating its price |
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price.
This player's other props in the game.
| Bet | Best price | How often it won | Last 10 games | Trend score | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under 4.5 receptionsMalik Washington · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ET | -150at BetMGM | 16 of 17· last season94%needs 60% to break even | Record is last season's | -5.9Not beating its price | |
| Under 3.5 receptionsMalik Washington · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ET | +114at Kalshi | 12 of 17· last season71%needs 47% to break even | Record is last season's | -9.3Not beating its price | |
| Over 4.5 receptionsMalik Washington · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ET | +129at Kalshi | 3 of 5· last 5 games60%needs 44% to break even | -26.8Not beating its price | ||
| Over 3.5 receptionsMalik Washington · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ET | -161at Kalshi | 4 of 5· last 5 games80%needs 62% to break even | -31.3Not beating its price |
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price.