This exact bet replayed over each stretch of recent games, against the 44% the best price needs to break even. A short run proves less than a long one: “likely win rate” is the range its true rate probably sits in.
| Games | Record | Likely win rate | Compared with the price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 games | 3 of 560%needs 44% to break even | 27%–86% | 16 points betterwon 60%, needs 44% |
| Last 10 games | 6 of 1060%needs 44% to break even | 35%–81% | 16 points betterwon 60%, needs 44% |
| Last 15 games | 7 of 1354%needs 44% to break even | 32%–74% | 10 points betterwon 54%, needs 44% |
| This season | 2 of 450%needs 44% to break even | 18%–82% | 6 points betterwon 50%, needs 44% |
| Last season | 5 of 956%needs 44% to break even | 30%–78% |
Tonight MIA plays on the road, as the underdog, after a loss, against NYJ. Tap any of these to count only past games that looked the same; the record and every number below follow.
Click a price to open the bet at that book, or a book's name below for everywhere it has the best price.
Best price at the top. Each row shows what a winning $100 bet pays compared with it.
Receptions in each game against over 2.5, newest first. Ties (pushes) don't count toward the record.
The same bet at other numbers, surest at the top, replayed over the same games. Where a book offers the number, its best price is beside it.
The numbers the books are posting on the other side.
| Bet | Best price | How often it won | Last 10 games | Trend score | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under 2.5 receptionsGreg Dulcich · |
This player's other props in the game.
| Bet | Best price | How often it won | Last 10 games | Trend score | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 20.5 receiving yardsGreg Dulcich |
| Every game | 7 of 1354%needs 44% to break even | 32%–74% | 10 points betterwon 54%, needs 44% |
| Wk 1 | 2 | -0.5 | Lost |
| Last season | ||||
| Wk 18 | 3 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Wk 17 | 5 | +2.5 | Won |
| Wk 16 | 3 | +0.5 | Won |
| Wk 15 | 2 | -0.5 | Lost |
| Wk 14 | 3 | +0.5 | Won |
| Wk 13 | 2 | -0.5 | Lost |
| Wk 11 | 2 | -0.5 | Lost |
| Wk 10 | 1 | -1.5 | Lost |
| Wk 9 | 5 | +2.5 | Won |
| -150at BetMGM |
| 6 of 13· last 15 games, 2 skipped46%needs 60% to break even |
| -28.6Not beating its price |
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price.
| -114at DraftKings |
| 8 of 9· last season89%needs 53% to break even |
| Record is last season's |
| -6.0Not beating its price |
| Over 21.5 receiving yardsGreg Dulcich · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ET | -114at FanDuel | 8 of 9· last season89%needs 53% to break even | Record is last season's | -6.0Not beating its price |
| Over 19.5 receiving yardsGreg Dulcich · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ET | -131at Kalshi | 8 of 9· last season89%needs 57% to break even | Record is last season's | -8.5Not beating its price |
| Under 19.5 receiving yardsGreg Dulcich · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ET | -107at Kalshi | 2 of 4· this season50%needs 52% to break even | Record is this season's | -30.3Not beating its price |
| Under 20.5 receiving yardsGreg Dulcich · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ET | -110at DraftKings | 2 of 4· this season50%needs 52% to break even | Record is this season's | -30.8Not beating its price |
| Under 21.5 receiving yardsGreg Dulcich · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ET | -114at FanDuel | 2 of 4· this season50%needs 53% to break even | Record is this season's | -31.5Not beating its price |
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price.
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