This exact bet replayed over each stretch of recent games, against the 55% the best price needs to break even. A short run proves less than a long one: “likely win rate” is the range its true rate probably sits in.
| Games | Record | Likely win rate | Compared with the price | Average |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 games | 3 of 560%needs 55% to break even | 27%–86% | 5 points betterwon 60%, needs 55% | 18.4receiving yards |
| Last 10 games | 3 of 560%needs 55% to break even | 27%–86% | 5 points betterwon 60%, needs 55% | 18.4receiving yards |
| Last 15 games | 3 of 560%needs 55% to break even | 27%–86% | 5 points betterwon 60%, needs 55% | 18.4receiving yards |
| This season | 3 of 560%needs 55% to break even | 27%–86% | 5 points betterwon 60%, needs 55% | 18.4receiving yards |
| Every game |
Tonight MIA plays on the road, as the underdog, after a loss, against NYJ. Tap any of these to count only past games that looked the same; the record and every number below follow.
Tonight: NYJ allows 135.2 receiving yards a game to wide receivers, the 9th fewest of 32 defenses (the average defense allows 150.3): an easy matchup for this bet. How NYJ defends wide receivers
Click a price to open the bet at that book, or a book's name below for everywhere it has the best price.
Best price at the top. Each row shows what a winning $100 bet pays compared with it.
Receiving yards in each game against under 22.5, newest first. Ties (pushes) don't count toward the record.
The same bet at other numbers, surest at the top, replayed over the same games. Where a book offers the number, its best price is beside it.
The numbers the books are posting on the other side.
This player's other props in the game.
| 3 of 560%needs 55% to break even |
| 27%–86% |
| 5 points betterwon 60%, needs 55% |
| 18.4receiving yards |
| Won |
| Wk 1 | 25 | -2.5 | Lost |
| -166at FanDuel |
| 2 of 5· last 5 games40%needs 62% to break even |
| -24.1Not beating its price |
| Over 18.5 receiving yardsChris Bell · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ET | -114at BetOnline | 2 of 5· last 5 games40%needs 53% to break even | -19.5Not beating its price |
| Over 19.5 receiving yardsChris Bell · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ET | -107at Kalshi | 2 of 5· last 5 games40%needs 52% to break even | -18.7Not beating its price |
| Over 20.5 receiving yardsChris Bell · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ET | -109at DraftKings | 2 of 5· last 5 games40%needs 52% to break even | -18.9Not beating its price |
| Over 22.5 receiving yardsChris Bell · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ET | -111at BetMGM | 2 of 5· last 5 games40%needs 53% to break even | -19.2Not beating its price |
| Over 24.5 receiving yardsChris Bell · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ET | +120at DraftKings | 2 of 5· last 5 games40%needs 45% to break even | -15.6Not beating its price |
| Over 28.5 receiving yardsChris Bell · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ET | +133at BetOnline | 1 of 5· last 5 games20%needs 43% to break even | -19.2Not beating its price |
| Over 29.5 receiving yardsChris Bell · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ET | +166at Kalshi | 1 of 5· last 5 games20%needs 38% to break even | -16.5Not beating its price |
| Over 38.5 receiving yardsChris Bell · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ET | +200at BetOnline | 1 of 5· last 5 games20%needs 33% to break even | -14.4Not beating its price |
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price.
| -110at BetMGM |
| 4 of 5· last 5 games80%needs 52% to break even |
| -4.4Not beating its price |
| Scores a TDChris Bell · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ET | +685at Kalshi | 0 of 5· last 5 games0%needs 13% to break even | -6.4Not beating its price |
| Over 2.5 receptionsChris Bell · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ET | +270at FanDuel | 1 of 5· last 5 games20%needs 27% to break even | -11.2Not beating its price |
| Over 1.5 receptionsChris Bell · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ET | -107at Kalshi | 1 of 5· last 5 games20%needs 52% to break even | -23.5Not beating its price |
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price. A yes-or-no bet (a draw, both teams to score, a TD) shows one same-size bar per game, green when it won.
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