This exact bet replayed over each stretch of recent games, against the 48% the best price needs to break even. A short run proves less than a long one: “likely win rate” is the range its true rate probably sits in.
| Games | Record | Likely win rate | Compared with the price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 games | 4 of 580%needs 48% to break even | 44%–95% | 32 points betterwon 80%, needs 48% |
| Last 10 games | 4 of 580%needs 48% to break even | 44%–95% | 32 points betterwon 80%, needs 48% |
| Last 15 games | 4 of 580%needs 48% to break even | 44%–95% | 32 points betterwon 80%, needs 48% |
| This season | 4 of 580%needs 48% to break even | 44%–95% | 32 points betterwon 80%, needs 48% |
| Every game | 4 of 580%needs 48% to break even | 44%–95% | 32 points better |
Tonight MIA plays on the road, as the underdog, after a loss, against NYJ. Tap any of these to count only past games that looked the same; the record and every number below follow.
Click a price to open the bet at that book, or a book's name below for everywhere it has the best price.
Best price at the top. Each row shows what a winning $100 bet pays compared with it.
Receptions in each game against under 1.5, newest first. Ties (pushes) don't count toward the record.
The same bet at other numbers, surest at the top, replayed over the same games. Where a book offers the number, its best price is beside it.
The numbers the books are posting on the other side.
| Bet | Best price | How often it won | Last 10 games | Trend score | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 receptionsChris Bell · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ET |
This player's other props in the game.
| Bet | Best price | How often it won | Last 10 games | Trend score | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under 19.5 receiving yardsChris Bell |
| Won |
| -107at Kalshi |
| 1 of 5· last 5 games20%needs 52% to break even |
| -23.5Not beating its price |
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price.
| -107at BetRivers |
| 3 of 5· last 5 games60%needs 52% to break even |
| -12.2Not beating its price |
| Under 21.5 receiving yardsChris Bell · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ET | -111at DraftKings | 3 of 5· last 5 games60%needs 53% to break even | -12.7Not beating its price |
| Over 19.5 receiving yardsChris Bell · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ET | -112at Kalshi | 2 of 5· last 5 games40%needs 53% to break even | -19.3Not beating its price |
| Over 21.5 receiving yardsChris Bell · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ET | -113at DraftKings | 2 of 5· last 5 games40%needs 53% to break even | -19.4Not beating its price |
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price.
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