This exact bet replayed over each stretch of recent games, against the 52% the best price needs to break even. A short run proves less than a long one: “likely win rate” is the range its true rate probably sits in.
| Games | Record | Likely win rate | Compared with the price | Average |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 games | 2 of 540%needs 52% to break even | 14%–73% | 12 points shortwon 40%, needs 52% | 18.4receiving yards |
| Last 10 games | 2 of 540%needs 52% to break even | 14%–73% | 12 points shortwon 40%, needs 52% | 18.4receiving yards |
| Last 15 games | 2 of 540%needs 52% to break even | 14%–73% | 12 points shortwon 40%, needs 52% | 18.4receiving yards |
| This season | 2 of 540%needs 52% to break even | 14%–73% | 12 points shortwon 40%, needs 52% | 18.4receiving yards |
| Every game | 2 of 540%needs 52% to break even | 14%–73% | 12 points shortwon 40%, needs 52% | 18.4receiving yards |
Tonight MIA plays on the road, as the underdog, after a loss, against NYJ. Tap any of these to count only past games that looked the same; the record and every number below follow.
Tonight: NYJ allows 135.2 receiving yards a game to wide receivers, the 9th fewest of 32 defenses (the average defense allows 150.3): a tough matchup for this bet. How NYJ defends wide receivers
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Best price at the top. Each row shows what a winning $100 bet pays compared with it.
Receiving yards in each game against over 20.5, newest first. Ties (pushes) don't count toward the record.
The same bet at other numbers, surest at the top, replayed over the same games. Where a book offers the number, its best price is beside it.
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The numbers the books are posting on the other side.
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price.
This player's other props in the game.
| Bet | Best price | How often it won | Last 10 games | Trend score | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under 1.5 receptionsChris Bell · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ET | -110at BetMGM | 4 of 5· last 5 games80%needs 52% to break even | -4.4Not beating its price | ||
| Scores a TDChris Bell · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ET | +685at Kalshi | 0 of 5· last 5 games0%needs 13% to break even | -6.4Not beating its price | ||
| Over 2.5 receptionsChris Bell · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ET | +270at FanDuel | 1 of 5· last 5 games20%needs 27% to break even | -11.2Not beating its price | ||
| Over 1.5 receptionsChris Bell · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ET | -107at Kalshi | 1 of 5· last 5 games20%needs 52% to break even | -23.5Not beating its price |
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price. A yes-or-no bet (a draw, both teams to score, a TD) shows one same-size bar per game, green when it won.