This exact bet replayed over each stretch of recent games, against the 55% the best price needs to break even. A short run proves less than a long one: “likely win rate” is the range its true rate probably sits in.
| Games | Record | Likely win rate | Compared with the price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 games | 2 of 540%needs 55% to break even | 14%–73% | 15 points shortwon 40%, needs 55% |
| Last 10 games | 5 of 956%needs 55% to break even | 30%–78% | evenwon 56%, needs 55% |
| Last 15 games | 5 of 956%needs 55% to break even | 30%–78% | evenwon 56%, needs 55% |
| This season | 2 of 540%needs 55% to break even | 14%–73% | 15 points shortwon 40%, needs 55% |
| Last season | 3 of 475%needs 55% to break even | 36%–94% | 20 points betterwon 75%, needs 55% |
| Every game | 5 of 956%needs 55% to break even | 30%–78% | evenwon 56%, needs 55% |
Tonight MIA plays on the road, as the underdog, after a loss, against NYJ. Tap any of these to count only past games that looked the same; the record and every number below follow.
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Click a price to open the bet at that book, or a book's name below for everywhere it has the best price.
Best price at the top. Each row shows what a winning $100 bet pays compared with it.
Passing yards in each game against under 178.5, newest first. Ties (pushes) don't count toward the record.
The same bet at other numbers, surest at the top, replayed over the same games. Where a book offers the number, its best price is beside it.
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The numbers the books are posting on the other side.
| Bet | Best price | How often it won | Last 10 games | Trend score | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 174.5 passing yardsMalik Willis · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ET | -121at Kalshi | 3 of 5· last 5 games60%needs 55% to break even | -24.6Not beating its price | ||
| Over 176.5 passing yardsMalik Willis · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ET | -115at BetMGM | 3 of 5· last 5 games60%needs 53% to break even | -23.8Not beating its price | ||
| Over 178.5 passing yardsMalik Willis · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ET | -117at BetRivers | 3 of 5· last 5 games60%needs 54% to break even | -24.1Not beating its price | ||
| Over 182.5 passing yardsMalik Willis · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ET | -113at DraftKings | 3 of 5· last 5 games60%needs 53% to break even | -23.5Not beating its price | ||
| Over 183.5 passing yardsMalik Willis · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ET | -114at FanDuel | 3 of 5· last 5 games60%needs 53% to break even | -23.6Not beating its price | ||
| Over 199.5 passing yardsMalik Willis · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ET | +140at Kalshi | 2 of 5· last 5 games40%needs 42% to break even | -19.9Not beating its price |
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price.
This player's other props in the game.
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price.