This exact bet replayed over each stretch of recent games, against the 50% the best price needs to break even. A short run proves less than a long one: “likely win rate” is the range its true rate probably sits in.
| Games | Record | Likely win rate | Compared with the price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 games | 2 of 540%needs 50% to break even | 14%–73% | 10 points shortwon 40%, needs 50% |
| Last 10 games | 6 of 967%needs 50% to break even | 40%–86% | 17 points betterwon 67%, needs 50% |
| Last 15 games | 6 of 967%needs 50% to break even | 40%–86% | 17 points betterwon 67%, needs 50% |
| This season | 2 of 540%needs 50% to break even | 14%–73% | 10 points shortwon 40%, needs 50% |
| Last season | 4 of 4100%needs 50% to break even | 60%–100% | 50 points betterwon 100%, needs 50% |
| Every game | 6 of 967%needs 50% to break even | 40%–86% | 17 points betterwon 67%, needs 50% |
Tonight MIA plays on the road, as the underdog, after a loss, against NYJ. Tap any of these to count only past games that looked the same; the record and every number below follow.
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Best price at the top. Each row shows what a winning $100 bet pays compared with it.
Pass attempts in each game against under 26.5, newest first. Ties (pushes) don't count toward the record.
The same bet at other numbers, surest at the top, replayed over the same games. Where a book offers the number, its best price is beside it.
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The numbers the books are posting on the other side.
| Bet | Best price | How often it won | Last 10 games | Trend score | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 26.5 pass attemptsMalik Willis · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ET | -142at Kalshi | 3 of 5· last 5 games60%needs 59% to break even | -30.3Not beating its price |
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price.
This player's other props in the game.
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price.