This exact bet replayed over each stretch of recent games, against the 56% the best price needs to break even. A short run proves less than a long one: “likely win rate” is the range its true rate probably sits in.
| Games | Record | Likely win rate | Compared with the price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 games | 3 of 560%needs 56% to break even | 27%–86% | 4 points betterwon 60%, needs 56% |
| Last 10 games | 4 of 944%needs 56% to break even | 22%–70% | 11 points shortwon 44%, needs 56% |
| Last 15 games | 4 of 944%needs 56% to break even | 22%–70% | 11 points shortwon 44%, needs 56% |
| This season | 3 of 560%needs 56% to break even | 27%–86% | 4 points betterwon 60%, needs 56% |
| Last season | 1 of 425%needs 56% to break even | 6%–64% | 31 points shortwon 25%, needs 56% |
| Every game |
Tonight MIA plays on the road, as the underdog, after a loss, against NYJ. Tap any of these to count only past games that looked the same; the record and every number below follow.
Click a price to open the bet at that book, or a book's name below for everywhere it has the best price.
Best price at the top. Each row shows what a winning $100 bet pays compared with it.
Passing yards in each game against over 174.5, newest first. Ties (pushes) don't count toward the record.
The same bet at other numbers, surest at the top, replayed over the same games. Where a book offers the number, its best price is beside it.
The numbers the books are posting on the other side.
| Bet | Best price | How often it won | Last 10 games | Trend score | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under 149.5 passing yardsMalik Willis |
This player's other props in the game.
| Bet | Best price | How often it won | Last 10 games | Trend score | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under 16.5 completionsMalik Willis |
| 22%–70% |
| 11 points shortwon 44%, needs 56% |
| +22.5 |
| Won |
| Wk 1 | 220 | +45.5 | Won |
| Last season | ||||
| Wk 17 | 288 | +113.5 | Won | |
| Wk 16 | 121 | -53.5 | Lost |
| Wk 12 | 7 | -167.5 | Lost |
| Wk 11 | 6 | -168.5 | Lost |
| +189at Kalshi |
| 3 of 4· last season75%needs 35% to break even |
| Record is last season's |
| -3.9Not beating its price |
| Under 174.5 passing yardsMalik Willis · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ET | -103at Kalshi | 3 of 4· last season75%needs 51% to break even | Record is last season's | -14.3Not beating its price |
| Under 176.5 passing yardsMalik Willis · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ET | -115at BetMGM | 3 of 4· last season75%needs 53% to break even | Record is last season's | -16.0Not beating its price |
| Under 178.5 passing yardsMalik Willis · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ET | -124at BetRivers | 3 of 4· last season75%needs 55% to break even | Record is last season's | -17.3Not beating its price |
| Under 182.5 passing yardsMalik Willis · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ET | -111at DraftKings | 3 of 4· last season75%needs 53% to break even | Record is last season's | -15.5Not beating its price |
| Under 183.5 passing yardsMalik Willis · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ET | -114at FanDuel | 3 of 4· last season75%needs 53% to break even | Record is last season's | -15.9Not beating its price |
| Under 199.5 passing yardsMalik Willis · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ET | -175at Kalshi | 6 of 9· last 10 games, 1 skipped67%needs 64% to break even | -18.5Not beating its price |
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price.
| -121at Kalshi |
| 7 of 9· last 10 games, 1 skipped78%needs 55% to break even |
| -7.9Not beating its price |
| Under 0.5 interceptions thrownMalik Willis · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ET | -121at Kalshi | 4 of 4· last season100%needs 55% to break even | Record is last season's | -8.4Not beating its price |
| Under 19.5 rushing yardsMalik Willis · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ET | +198at Kalshi | 4 of 9· last 10 games, 1 skipped44%needs 34% to break even | -9.7Not beating its price |
| Over 39.5 rushing yardsMalik Willis · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ET | +166at Kalshi | 4 of 9· last 10 games, 1 skipped44%needs 38% to break even | -12.3Not beating its price |
| Under 0.5 passing TDsMalik Willis · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ET | +146at Kalshi | 3 of 5· last 5 games60%needs 41% to break even | -15.5Not beating its price |
| Under 24.5 rushing yardsMalik Willis · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ET | +134at Kalshi | 4 of 9· last 10 games, 1 skipped44%needs 43% to break even | -15.6Not beating its price |
| Over 29.5 rushing yardsMalik Willis · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ET | -110at DraftKings | 5 of 9· last 10 games, 1 skipped56%needs 52% to break even | -17.9Not beating its price |
| Over 30.5 rushing yardsMalik Willis · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ET | -114at FanDuel | 5 of 9· last 10 games, 1 skipped56%needs 53% to break even | -18.5Not beating its price |
| Under 6.5 rush attemptsMalik Willis · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ET | -126at Kalshi | 5 of 9· last 10 games, 1 skipped56%needs 56% to break even | -20.1Not beating its price |
| Under 30.5 rushing yardsMalik Willis · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ET | -111at BetMGM | 4 of 9· last 10 games, 1 skipped44%needs 53% to break even | -22.0Not beating its price |
| Under 29.5 rushing yardsMalik Willis · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ET | -112at Kalshi | 4 of 9· last 10 games, 1 skipped44%needs 53% to break even | -22.1Not beating its price |
| Over 6.5 rush attemptsMalik Willis · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ET | -112at Kalshi | 4 of 9· last 10 games, 1 skipped44%needs 53% to break even | -22.1Not beating its price |
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price.
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