This exact bet replayed over each stretch of recent games, against the 59% the best price needs to break even. A short run proves less than a long one: “likely win rate” is the range its true rate probably sits in.
| Games | Record | Likely win rate | Compared with the price | Average |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 games | 3 of 560%needs 59% to break even | 27%–86% | 1 points betterwon 60%, needs 59% | 231.2passing and rushing yards |
| Last 10 games | 4 of 1040%needs 59% to break even | 19%–65% | 19 points shortwon 40%, needs 59% | 203.5passing and rushing yards |
| Last 15 games | 7 of 1547%needs 59% to break even | 28%–67% | 12 points shortwon 47%, needs 59% | 206.1passing and rushing yards |
| This season | 4 of 667%needs 59% to break even | 35%–88% | 8 points betterwon 67%, needs 59% | 229.7passing and rushing yards |
| Last season |
Tonight NYJ plays at home, as the favorite, after a loss, against MIA. Tap any of these to count only past games that looked the same; the record and every number below follow.
This season and last: 4 of 10 at home. Tonight: MIA allows 235.8 passing and rushing yards a game to quarterbacks, the 9th fewest of 32 defenses (the average defense allows 253.4): a tough matchup for this bet. How MIA defends quarterbacks
Click a price to open the bet at that book, or a book's name below for everywhere it has the best price.
Best price at the top. Each row shows what a winning $100 bet pays compared with it.
Pass + rush yards in each game against over 219.5, newest first. Ties (pushes) don't count toward the record.
| Date | Opponent | Pass + rush yards | Beat 219.5 by |
|---|
The same bet at other numbers, surest at the top, replayed over the same games. Where a book offers the number, its best price is beside it.
The numbers the books are posting on the other side.
This player's other props in the game.
| 22%–61% |
| 19 points shortwon 40%, needs 59% |
| 208.9passing and rushing yards |
| Every game | 10 of 2148%needs 59% to break even | 31%–65% | 11 points shortwon 48%, needs 59% | 214.9passing and rushing yards |
| Bet |
|---|
| This season | ||||
| Wk 6 | 251 | +31.5 | Won | |
| Wk 5 | 189 | -30.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 4 | 119 | -100.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 3 | 333 | +113.5 | Won | |
| Wk 2 | 264 | +44.5 | Won | |
| Wk 1 | 222 | +2.5 | Won | |
| Last season | ||||
| Wk 17 | 177 | -42.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 16 | 201 | -18.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 14 | 120 | -99.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 13 | 159 | -60.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 12 | 293 | +73.5 | Won | |
| Wk 11 | 252 | +32.5 | Won | |
| Wk 10 | 150 | -69.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 9 | 293 | +73.5 | Won | |
| Wk 7 | 68 | -151.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 6 | 171 | -48.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 5 | 236 | +16.5 | Won | |
| Wk 4 | 148 | -71.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 3 | 294 | +74.5 | Won | |
| Wk 2 | 200 | -19.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 1 | 372 | +152.5 | Won | |
| -112at DraftKings |
| 7 of 10· last 10 games70%needs 53% to break even6 of 10 at home |
| -16.0Not beating its price |
| Under 231.5 pass + rush yardsGeno Smith · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ET | -115at BetMGM | 7 of 10· last 10 games70%needs 53% to break even6 of 10 at home | -16.5Not beating its price |
| Under 232.5 pass + rush yardsGeno Smith · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ET | -114at FanDuel | 7 of 10· last 10 games70%needs 53% to break even6 of 10 at home | -16.3Not beating its price |
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. A thin upright line marks where this season starts. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price.
| +102at DraftKings |
| 8 of 10· last 10 games80%needs 50% to break even5 of 10 at home |
| -7.1Not beating its price |
| Under 1.5 passing TDsGeno Smith · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ET | -131at Kalshi | 11 of 15· last 15 games73%needs 57% to break even8 of 10 at home | -7.7Not beating its price |
| Scores a TDGeno Smith · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ET | +900at Fanatics | 0 of 5· last 5 games0%needs 10% to break even0 of 10 at home | -8.1Not beating its price |
| Over 24.5 completionsGeno Smith · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ET | +260at BetMGM | 5 of 15· last 15 games33%needs 28% to break even4 of 10 at home | -12.4Not beating its price |
| Under 199.5 passing yardsGeno Smith · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ET | +152at Kalshi | 8 of 15· last season53%needs 40% to break even6 of 10 at home | Record is last season's | -12.9Not beating its price |
| Over 33.5 pass attemptsGeno Smith · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ET | +215at DraftKings | 6 of 15· last season40%needs 32% to break even5 of 10 at home | Record is last season's | -13.6Not beating its price |
| Under 9.5 rushing yardsGeno Smith · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ET | -183at Kalshi | 12 of 15· last 15 games80%needs 65% to break even6 of 10 at home | -14.5Not beating its price |
| Under 218.5 passing yardsGeno Smith · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ET | -111at DraftKings | 7 of 10· last 10 games70%needs 53% to break even6 of 10 at home | -15.8Not beating its price |
| Under 223.5 passing yardsGeno Smith · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ET | -114at FanDuel | 7 of 10· last 10 games70%needs 53% to break even6 of 10 at home | -16.3Not beating its price |
| Under 221.5 passing yardsGeno Smith · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ET | -115at BetMGM | 7 of 10· last 10 games70%needs 53% to break even6 of 10 at home | -16.5Not beating its price |
| Under 0.5 interceptions thrownGeno Smith · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ET | -121at Kalshi | 5 of 6· this season83%needs 55% to break even4 of 10 at home | Record is this season's | -17.3Not beating its price |
| Under 215.5 passing yardsGeno Smith · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ET | -120at BetRivers | 7 of 10· last 10 games70%needs 55% to break even6 of 10 at home | -17.3Not beating its price |
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. A thin upright line marks where this season starts. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price. A yes-or-no bet (a draw, both teams to score, a TD) shows one same-size bar per game, green when it won.
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