This exact bet replayed over each stretch of recent games, against the 56% the best price needs to break even. A short run proves less than a long one: “likely win rate” is the range its true rate probably sits in.
| Games | Record | Likely win rate | Compared with the price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 games | 3 of 560%needs 56% to break even | 27%–86% | 4 points betterwon 60%, needs 56% |
| Last 10 games | 6 of 1060%needs 56% to break even | 35%–81% | 4 points betterwon 60%, needs 56% |
| Last 15 games | 9 of 1560%needs 56% to break even | 39%–78% | 4 points betterwon 60%, needs 56% |
| This season | 4 of 667%needs 56% to break even | 35%–88% | 11 points betterwon 67%, needs 56% |
| Last season | 10 of 1759%needs 56% to break even | 39%–76% | 3 points betterwon 59%, needs 56% |
| Every game | 14 of 2361%needs 56% to break even | 44%–76% | 5 points betterwon 61%, needs 56% |
Tonight ATL plays at home, as the underdog, after a loss, against SF. Tap any of these to count only past games that looked the same; the record and every number below follow.
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Click a price to open the bet at that book, or a book's name below for everywhere it has the best price.
Best price at the top. Each row shows what a winning $100 bet pays compared with it.
1H total points in each game against under 24.5, newest first. Ties (pushes) don't count toward the record.
| Date | Opponent | 1H total points | Beat 24.5 by | Bet |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| This season | ||||
| Oct 18 | 28 | -3.5 | Lost | |
| Oct 11 | 23 | +1.5 | Won | |
| Oct 5 | 31 | -6.5 | Lost | |
| Sep 24 | 24 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Sep 20 | 23 | +1.5 | Won | |
| Sep 13 | 20 | +4.5 | Won | |
| Last season | ||||
| Jan 4 | 17 | +7.5 | Won | |
| Dec 29 | 21 | +3.5 | Won | |
| Dec 21 | 32 | -7.5 | Lost | |
| Dec 11 | 27 | -2.5 | Lost | |
| Dec 7 | 12 | +12.5 | Won | |
| Nov 30 | 14 | +10.5 | Won | |
| Nov 23 | 23 | +1.5 | Won | |
| Nov 16 | 31 | -6.5 | Lost | |
| Nov 9 | 27 | -2.5 | Lost | |
| Nov 2 | 35 | -10.5 | Lost | |
| Oct 26 | 20 | +4.5 | Won | |
| Oct 19 | 13 | +11.5 | Won | |
| Oct 13 | 28 | -3.5 | Lost | |
| Sep 28 | 27 | -2.5 | Lost | |
| Sep 21 | 10 | +14.5 | Won | |
| Sep 14 | 15 | +9.5 | Won | |
| Sep 7 | 20 | +4.5 | Won | |
The same bet at other numbers, surest at the top, replayed over the same games. Where a book offers the number, its best price is beside it.
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The numbers the books are posting on the other side.
| Bet | Best price | How often it won | Last 10 games | Trend score | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 21.5 1st half totalAtlanta Falcons · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ET | -183at Kalshi | 5 of 5· last 5 games100%needs 65% to break even | -16.3Not beating its price | ||
| Over 22.5 1st half totalAtlanta Falcons · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ET | -164at Polymarket | 5 of 5· last 5 games100%needs 62% to break even | -14.2Not beating its price | ||
| Over 24.5 1st half totalAtlanta Falcons · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ET | +101at Kalshi | 7 of 17· last season41%needs 50% to break even | Record is last season's | -25.4Not beating its price | |
| Over 25.5 1st half totalAtlanta Falcons · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ET | +103at Polymarket | 7 of 17· last season41%needs 49% to break even | Record is last season's | -25.0Not beating its price | |
| Over 28.5 1st half totalAtlanta Falcons · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ET | +173at Kalshi | 3 of 15· last 15 games20%needs 37% to break even | -24.9Not beating its price |
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price.
This team's other lines in the game.
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price.