This exact bet replayed over each stretch of recent games, against the 44% the best price needs to break even. A short run proves less than a long one: “likely win rate” is the range its true rate probably sits in.
| Games | Record | Likely win rate | Compared with the price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 games | 3 of 560%needs 44% to break even | 27%–86% | 16 points betterwon 60%, needs 44% |
| Last 10 games | 6 of 1060%needs 44% to break even | 35%–81% | 16 points betterwon 60%, needs 44% |
| Last 15 games | 9 of 1560%needs 44% to break even | 39%–78% | 16 points betterwon 60%, needs 44% |
| This season | 3 of 650%needs 44% to break even | 22%–78% | 6 points betterwon 50%, needs 44% |
| Last season | 9 of 1753%needs 44% to break even | 34%–71% | 9 points betterwon 53%, needs 44% |
| Every game | 12 of 2352%needs 44% to break even | 36%–68% | 9 points betterwon 52%, needs 44% |
Tonight ATL plays at home, as the underdog, after a loss, against SF. Tap any of these to count only past games that looked the same; the record and every number below follow.
Click a price to open the bet at that book, or a book's name below for everywhere it has the best price.
Best price at the top. Each row shows what a winning $100 bet pays compared with it.
1H margin in each game against atl 1h -0.5, newest first. Ties (pushes) don't count toward the record.
| Date | Opponent | 1H margin | Beat 0.5 by | Bet |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| This season | ||||
| Oct 18 | -14 | -14.5 | Lost | |
The same bet at other numbers, surest at the top, replayed over the same games. Where a book offers the number, its best price is beside it.
This team's other lines in the game.
| Bet | Best price | How often it won | Last 10 games | Trend score | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under 14.5 2nd quarter totalAtlanta Falcons · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ET |
| Oct 11 | 5 | +4.5 | Won |
| Oct 5 | 17 | +16.5 | Won |
| Sep 24 | 10 | +9.5 | Won |
| Sep 20 | -17 | -17.5 | Lost |
| Sep 13 | -6 | -6.5 | Lost |
| Last season | ||||
| Jan 4 | 3 | +2.5 | Won | |
| Dec 29 | 21 | +20.5 | Won |
| Dec 21 | 0 | -0.5 | Lost |
| Dec 11 | 1 | +0.5 | Won |
| Dec 7 | 0 | -0.5 | Lost |
| Nov 30 | 0 | -0.5 | Lost |
| Nov 23 | 9 | +8.5 | Won |
| Nov 16 | 11 | +10.5 | Won |
| Nov 9 | 1 | +0.5 | Won |
| Nov 2 | -7 | -7.5 | Lost |
| Oct 26 | -14 | -14.5 | Lost |
| Oct 19 | -7 | -7.5 | Lost |
| Oct 13 | 14 | +13.5 | Won |
| Sep 28 | 7 | +6.5 | Won |
| Sep 21 | -10 | -10.5 | Lost |
| Sep 14 | 3 | +2.5 | Won |
| Sep 7 | 0 | -0.5 | Lost |
| 5 of 6· this season83%needs 55% to break even |
| Record is this season's |
| -7.5Not beating its price |
| Over 13.5 1st half team totalAtlanta Falcons · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ET | +129at Kalshi | 9 of 15· last 15 games60%needs 44% to break even | -9.7Not beating its price |
| Over 7.5 1st quarter totalAtlanta Falcons · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ET | -137at Kalshi | 6 of 6· this season100%needs 58% to break even | Record is this season's | -10.5Not beating its price |
| ATL +0.5 2nd quarter spreadAtlanta Falcons · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ET | -126at Kalshi | 12 of 15· last 15 games80%needs 56% to break even | -10.8Not beating its price |
| ATL -0.5 2nd quarter spreadAtlanta Falcons · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ET | +134at Kalshi | 9 of 15· last 15 games60%needs 43% to break even | -10.9Not beating its price |
| Over 22.5 team totalAtlanta Falcons · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ET | -137at Kalshi | 11 of 15· last 15 games73%needs 58% to break even | -12.5Not beating its price |
| ATL +1.5 2nd quarter spreadAtlanta Falcons · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ET | -142at Kalshi | 12 of 15· last 15 games80%needs 59% to break even | -13.2Not beating its price |
| ATL -0.5 1st quarter spreadAtlanta Falcons · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ET | +159at Kalshi | 5 of 10· last 10 games50%needs 39% to break even | -13.3Not beating its price |
| Over 13.5 1st quarter totalAtlanta Falcons · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ET | +198at Kalshi | 3 of 5· last 5 games60%needs 34% to break even | -13.4Not beating its price |
| ATL -2.5 1st quarter spreadAtlanta Falcons · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ET | +152at Kalshi | 5 of 10· last 10 games50%needs 40% to break even | -14.2Not beating its price |
| Over 22.5 1st half totalAtlanta Falcons · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ET | -164at Polymarket | 5 of 5· last 5 games100%needs 62% to break even | -14.2Not beating its price |
| ATL to win moneylineAtlanta Falcons · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ET | PX+140at ProphetX | 6 of 10· last 10 games60%needs 42% to break even | -14.3Not beating its price |
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price.
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