This exact bet replayed over each stretch of recent games, against the 40% the best price needs to break even. A short run proves less than a long one: “likely win rate” is the range its true rate probably sits in.
| Games | Record | Likely win rate | Compared with the price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 games | 1 of 520%needs 40% to break even | 5%–56% | 20 points shortwon 20%, needs 40% |
| Last 10 games | 4 of 1040%needs 40% to break even | 19%–65% | evenwon 40%, needs 40% |
| Last 15 games | 8 of 1553%needs 40% to break even | 33%–72% | 14 points betterwon 53%, needs 40% |
| This season | 2 of 633%needs 40% to break even | 12%–65% | 6 points shortwon 33%, needs 40% |
| Last season | 12 of 1675%needs 40% to break even | 55%–88% | 35 points betterwon 75%, needs 40% |
| Every game |
Tonight ATL plays at home, as the underdog, after a loss, against SF. Tap any of these to count only past games that looked the same; the record and every number below follow.
Click a price to open the bet at that book, or a book's name below for everywhere it has the best price.
Best price at the top. Each row shows what a winning $100 bet pays compared with it.
Receptions in each game against under 1.5, newest first. Ties (pushes) don't count toward the record.
| Date | Opponent | Receptions | Beat 1.5 by | Bet |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| This season | ||||
| Wk 6 | 3 | -1.5 | Lost | |
The same bet at other numbers, surest at the top, replayed over the same games. Where a book offers the number, its best price is beside it.
The numbers the books are posting on the other side.
| Bet | Best price | How often it won | Last 10 games | Trend score | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 receptionsJahan Dotson · |
This player's other props in the game.
| Bet | Best price | How often it won | Last 10 games | Trend score | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under 14.5 receiving yardsJahan Dotson |
| 14 of 2264%needs 40% to break even |
| 46%–78% |
| 24 points betterwon 64%, needs 40% |
| Wk 5 | 2 | -0.5 | Lost |
| Wk 4 | 2 | -0.5 | Lost |
| Wk 3 | 1 | +0.5 | Won |
| Wk 2 | 2 | -0.5 | Lost |
| Wk 1 | 1 | +0.5 | Won |
| Last season | ||||
| Wk 19 | 0 | +1.5 | Won | |
| Wk 18 | 3 | -1.5 | Lost |
| Wk 17 | 0 | +1.5 | Won |
| Wk 16 | 3 | -1.5 | Lost |
| Wk 14 | 1 | +0.5 | Won |
| Wk 13 | 1 | +0.5 | Won |
| Wk 12 | 0 | +1.5 | Won |
| Wk 11 | 2 | -0.5 | Lost |
| Wk 10 | 0 | +1.5 | Won |
| Wk 8 | 1 | +0.5 | Won |
| Wk 6 | 1 | +0.5 | Won |
| Wk 5 | 1 | +0.5 | Won |
| Wk 4 | 0 | +1.5 | Won |
| Wk 3 | 1 | +0.5 | Won |
| Wk 2 | 1 | +0.5 | Won |
| Wk 1 | 3 | -1.5 | Lost |
| -199at Kalshi |
| 4 of 5· last 5 games80%needs 67% to break even |
| -30.6Not beating its price |
| Over 2.5 receptionsJahan Dotson · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ET | +146at Kalshi | 3 of 10· last 10 games30%needs 41% to break even | -26.9Not beating its price |
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price.
| +198at Kalshi |
| 10 of 16· last season63%needs 34% to break even |
| Record is last season's |
| -4.3Not beating its price |
| Under 24.5 receiving yardsJahan Dotson · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ET | +105at Kalshi | 12 of 16· last season75%needs 49% to break even | Record is last season's | -10.1Not beating its price |
| Under 28.5 receiving yardsJahan Dotson · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ET | -113at DraftKings | 12 of 16· last season75%needs 53% to break even | Record is last season's | -13.6Not beating its price |
| Under 29.5 receiving yardsJahan Dotson · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ET | -114at FanDuel | 12 of 16· last season75%needs 53% to break even | Record is last season's | -13.8Not beating its price |
| Over 39.5 receiving yardsJahan Dotson · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ET | +166at Kalshi | 3 of 5· last 5 games60%needs 38% to break even | -15.3Not beating its price |
| Over 28.5 receiving yardsJahan Dotson · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ET | -111at DraftKings | 3 of 5· last 5 games60%needs 53% to break even | -27.6Not beating its price |
| Over 29.5 receiving yardsJahan Dotson · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ET | -114at FanDuel | 3 of 5· last 5 games60%needs 53% to break even | -28.1Not beating its price |
| Over 24.5 receiving yardsJahan Dotson · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ET | -142at Kalshi | 3 of 5· last 5 games60%needs 59% to break even | -32.5Not beating its price |
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price.
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