This exact bet replayed over each stretch of recent games, against the 34% the best price needs to break even. A short run proves less than a long one: “likely win rate” is the range its true rate probably sits in.
| Games | Record | Likely win rate | Compared with the price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 games | 2 of 540%needs 34% to break even | 14%–73% | 6 points betterwon 40%, needs 34% |
| Last 10 games | 5 of 1050%needs 34% to break even | 27%–73% | 16 points betterwon 50%, needs 34% |
| Last 15 games | 9 of 1560%needs 34% to break even | 39%–78% | 26 points betterwon 60%, needs 34% |
| This season | 2 of 633%needs 34% to break even | 12%–65% | evenwon 33%, needs 34% |
| Last season | 10 of 1663%needs 34% to break even | 42%–79% | 29 points betterwon 63%, needs 34% |
Tonight ATL plays at home, as the underdog, after a loss, against SF. Tap any of these to count only past games that looked the same; the record and every number below follow.
Click a price to open the bet at that book, or a book's name below for everywhere it has the best price.
Best price at the top. Each row shows what a winning $100 bet pays compared with it.
Receiving yards in each game against under 14.5, newest first. Ties (pushes) don't count toward the record.
| Date | Opponent | Receiving yards | Beat 14.5 by | Bet |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| This season | ||||
| Wk 6 | 87 | |||
The same bet at other numbers, surest at the top, replayed over the same games. Where a book offers the number, its best price is beside it.
The numbers the books are posting on the other side.
| Bet | Best price | How often it won | Last 10 games | Trend score | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 24.5 receiving yardsJahan Dotson |
This player's other props in the game.
| Bet | Best price | How often it won | Last 10 games | Trend score | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under 2.5 receptionsJahan Dotson |
| Every game | 12 of 2255%needs 34% to break even | 38%–71% | 21 points betterwon 55%, needs 34% |
| -72.5 |
| Lost |
| Wk 5 | 54 | -39.5 | Lost |
| Wk 4 | 54 | -39.5 | Lost |
| Wk 3 | 11 | +3.5 | Won |
| Wk 2 | 11 | +3.5 | Won |
| Wk 1 | 19 | -4.5 | Lost |
| Last season | ||||
| Wk 19 | 0 | +14.5 | Won | |
| Wk 18 | 40 | -25.5 | Lost |
| Wk 17 | 0 | +14.5 | Won |
| Wk 16 | 13 | +1.5 | Won |
| Wk 14 | 3 | +11.5 | Won |
| Wk 13 | 12 | +2.5 | Won |
| Wk 12 | 0 | +14.5 | Won |
| Wk 11 | 43 | -28.5 | Lost |
| Wk 10 | 0 | +14.5 | Won |
| Wk 8 | 40 | -25.5 | Lost |
| Wk 6 | 17 | -2.5 | Lost |
| Wk 5 | 24 | -9.5 | Lost |
| Wk 4 | 0 | +14.5 | Won |
| Wk 3 | 7 | +7.5 | Won |
| Wk 2 | 4 | +10.5 | Won |
| Wk 1 | 59 | -44.5 | Lost |
| -142at Kalshi |
| 3 of 5· last 5 games60%needs 59% to break even |
| -32.5Not beating its price |
| Over 28.5 receiving yardsJahan Dotson · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ET | -111at DraftKings | 3 of 5· last 5 games60%needs 53% to break even | -27.6Not beating its price |
| Over 29.5 receiving yardsJahan Dotson · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ET | -114at FanDuel | 3 of 5· last 5 games60%needs 53% to break even | -28.1Not beating its price |
| Over 39.5 receiving yardsJahan Dotson · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ET | +166at Kalshi | 3 of 5· last 5 games60%needs 38% to break even | -15.3Not beating its price |
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price.
| -160at BetMGM |
| 13 of 16· last season81%needs 62% to break even |
| Record is last season's |
| -7.4Not beating its price |
| Under 1.5 receptionsJahan Dotson · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ET | +152at FanDuel | 12 of 16· last season75%needs 40% to break even | Record is last season's | -10.2Not beating its price |
| Over 2.5 receptionsJahan Dotson · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ET | +146at Kalshi | 3 of 10· last 10 games30%needs 41% to break even | -26.9Not beating its price |
| Over 1.5 receptionsJahan Dotson · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ET | -199at Kalshi | 4 of 5· last 5 games80%needs 67% to break even | -30.6Not beating its price |
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price.
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