This exact bet replayed over each stretch of recent games, against the 51% the best price needs to break even. A short run proves less than a long one: “likely win rate” is the range its true rate probably sits in.
| Games | Record | Likely win rate | Compared with the price | Average |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 games | 2 of 540%needs 51% to break even | 14%–73% | 11 points shortwon 40%, needs 51% | 1.4receptions |
| Last 10 games | 4 of 1040%needs 51% to break even | 19%–65% | 11 points shortwon 40%, needs 51% | 1.4receptions |
| Last 15 games | 6 of 1540%needs 51% to break even | 22%–61% | 11 points shortwon 40%, needs 51% | 1.5receptions |
| This season | 2 of 633%needs 51% to break even | 12%–65% | 18 points shortwon 33%, needs 51% | 1.3receptions |
| Last season | 9 of 1753% |
Tonight TEN plays at home, as the underdog, after a win, against CLE. Tap any of these to count only past games that looked the same; the record and every number below follow.
This season and last: 5 of 12 at home. Tonight: CLE allows 3.8 receptions a game to running backs, the 12th fewest of 32 defenses (the average defense allows 4.4). How CLE defends running backs
Click a price to open the bet at that book, or a book's name below for everywhere it has the best price.
Best price at the top. Each row shows what a winning $100 bet pays compared with it.
Receptions in each game against over 1.5, newest first. Ties (pushes) don't count toward the record.
| Date | Opponent | Receptions | Beat 1.5 by |
|---|
The same bet at other numbers, surest at the top, replayed over the same games. Where a book offers the number, its best price is beside it.
The numbers the books are posting on the other side.
This player's other props in the game.
| Bet | Best price | How often it won | Last 10 games | Trend score | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Doesn't score a TD |
| 34%–71% |
| 2 points betterwon 53%, needs 51% |
| 1.9receptions |
| Every game | 11 of 2348%needs 51% to break even | 32%–64% | 3 points shortwon 48%, needs 51% | 1.8receptions |
| Bet |
|---|
| This season | ||||
| Wk 6 | 0 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 5 | 0 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 4 | 2 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Wk 3 | 4 | +2.5 | Won | |
| Wk 2 | 1 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 1 | 1 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Last season | ||||
| Wk 18 | 3 | +1.5 | Won | |
| Wk 17 | 2 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Wk 16 | 0 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 15 | 1 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 14 | 0 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 13 | 1 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 12 | 4 | +2.5 | Won | |
| Wk 11 | 3 | +1.5 | Won | |
| Wk 9 | 1 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 8 | 1 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 7 | 6 | +4.5 | Won | |
| Wk 6 | 2 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Wk 5 | 3 | +1.5 | Won | |
| Wk 4 | 3 | +1.5 | Won | |
| Wk 3 | 2 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Wk 2 | 0 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 1 | 1 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| -108at FanDuel |
| 9 of 15· last 15 games60%needs 52% to break even7 of 12 at home |
| -15.4Not beating its price |
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. A thin upright line marks where this season starts. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price.
| -168at Kalshi |
| 12 of 15· last 15 games80%needs 63% to break even11 of 12 at home |
| -7.7Not beating its price |
| Under 80.5 rush + rec yardsTony Pollard · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ET | -114at DraftKings | 5 of 6· this season83%needs 53% to break even9 of 12 at home | Record is this season's | -7.8Not beating its price |
| Under 16.5 rush attemptsTony Pollard · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ET | +100at Fanatics | 12 of 17· last season71%needs 50% to break even9 of 12 at home | Record is last season's | -8.4Not beating its price |
| Under 76.5 rush + rec yardsTony Pollard · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ET | -113at FanDuel | 5 of 6· this season83%needs 53% to break even9 of 12 at home | Record is this season's | -8.7Not beating its price |
| Under 79.5 rush + rec yardsTony Pollard · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ET | -131at Kalshi | 5 of 6· this season83%needs 57% to break even9 of 12 at home | Record is this season's | -10.6Not beating its price |
| Under 6.5 receiving yardsTony Pollard · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ET | -104at DraftKings | 5 of 6· this season83%needs 51% to break even7 of 12 at home | Record is this season's | -13.0Not beating its price |
| Under 5.5 receiving yardsTony Pollard · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ET | -105at BetMGM | 5 of 6· this season83%needs 51% to break even7 of 12 at home | Record is this season's | -13.2Not beating its price |
| Under 68.5 rushing yardsTony Pollard · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ET | -115at DraftKings | 12 of 17· last season71%needs 53% to break even9 of 12 at home | Record is last season's | -13.6Not beating its price |
| Under 65.5 rushing yardsTony Pollard · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ET | -110at Fanatics | 11 of 17· last season65%needs 52% to break even9 of 12 at home | Record is last season's | -13.9Not beating its price |
| Under 66.5 rushing yardsTony Pollard · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ET | -114at FanDuel | 11 of 17· last season65%needs 53% to break even9 of 12 at home | Record is last season's | -14.6Not beating its price |
| Under 69.5 rushing yardsTony Pollard · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ET | -126at Kalshi | 12 of 17· last season71%needs 56% to break even9 of 12 at home | Record is last season's | -15.5Not beating its price |
| Under 75.5 rush + rec yardsTony Pollard · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ET | -115at BetMGM | 9 of 15· last 15 games60%needs 53% to break even9 of 12 at home | -17.0Not beating its price |
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. A thin upright line marks where this season starts. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price. A yes-or-no bet (a draw, both teams to score, a TD) shows one same-size bar per game, green when it won.
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