This exact bet replayed over each stretch of recent games, against the 51% the best price needs to break even. A short run proves less than a long one: “likely win rate” is the range its true rate probably sits in.
| Games | Record | Likely win rate | Compared with the price | Average |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 games | 4 of 580%needs 51% to break even | 44%–95% | 29 points betterwon 80%, needs 51% | 5receiving yards |
| Last 10 games | 6 of 1060%needs 51% to break even | 35%–81% | 9 points betterwon 60%, needs 51% | 5.9receiving yards |
| Last 15 games | 9 of 1560%needs 51% to break even | 39%–78% | 9 points betterwon 60%, needs 51% | 6.6receiving yards |
| This season | 5 of 683%needs 51% to break even | 50%–96% | 32 points betterwon 83%, needs 51% | 4receiving yards |
| Last season |
Tonight TEN plays at home, as the underdog, after a win, against CLE. Tap any of these to count only past games that looked the same; the record and every number below follow.
This season and last: 7 of 12 at home. Tonight: CLE allows 17.8 receiving yards a game to running backs, the 3rd fewest of 32 defenses (the average defense allows 31.3): an easy matchup for this bet. How CLE defends running backs
Click a price to open the bet at that book, or a book's name below for everywhere it has the best price.
Best price at the top. Each row shows what a winning $100 bet pays compared with it.
Receiving yards in each game against under 5.5, newest first. Ties (pushes) don't count toward the record.
| Date | Opponent | Receiving yards | Beat 5.5 by |
|---|
The same bet at other numbers, surest at the top, replayed over the same games. Where a book offers the number, its best price is beside it.
The numbers the books are posting on the other side.
This player's other props in the game.
| Bet | Best price | How often it won | Last 10 games | Trend score | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Doesn't score a TD |
| 5 of 1729%needs 51% to break even |
| 15%–49% |
| 22 points shortwon 29%, needs 51% |
| 12.1receiving yards |
| Every game | 10 of 2343%needs 51% to break even | 28%–60% | 8 points shortwon 43%, needs 51% | 10receiving yards |
| Bet |
|---|
| This season | ||||
| Wk 6 | 0 | +5.5 | Won | |
| Wk 5 | 0 | +5.5 | Won | |
| Wk 4 | 2 | +3.5 | Won | |
| Wk 3 | 22 | -16.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 2 | 1 | +4.5 | Won | |
| Wk 1 | -1 | +6.5 | Won | |
| Last season | ||||
| Wk 18 | 17 | -11.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 17 | 10 | -4.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 16 | 0 | +5.5 | Won | |
| Wk 15 | 8 | -2.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 14 | 0 | +5.5 | Won | |
| Wk 13 | 3 | +2.5 | Won | |
| Wk 12 | 21 | -15.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 11 | 4 | +1.5 | Won | |
| Wk 9 | 12 | -6.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 8 | 9 | -3.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 7 | 43 | -37.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 6 | 13 | -7.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 5 | 11 | -5.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 4 | 12 | -6.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 3 | 14 | -8.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 2 | 0 | +5.5 | Won | |
| Wk 1 | 29 | -23.5 | Lost | |
| -125at BetMGM |
| 12 of 17· last season71%needs 56% to break even5 of 12 at home |
| Record is last season's |
| -27.2Not beating its price |
| Over 6.5 receiving yardsTony Pollard · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ET | -114at FanDuel | 12 of 17· last season71%needs 53% to break even5 of 12 at home | Record is last season's | -25.3Not beating its price |
| Over 9.5 receiving yardsTony Pollard · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ET | +129at Kalshi | 10 of 17· last season59%needs 44% to break even5 of 12 at home | Record is last season's | -21.7Not beating its price |
| Over 16.5 receiving yardsTony Pollard · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ET | +131at BetOnline | 4 of 17· last season24%needs 43% to break even2 of 12 at home | Record is last season's | -29.6Not beating its price |
| Over 26.5 receiving yardsTony Pollard · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ET | +200at BetOnline | 2 of 17· last season12%needs 33% to break even1 of 12 at home | Record is last season's | -26.6Not beating its price |
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. A thin upright line marks where this season starts. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price.
| -168at Kalshi |
| 12 of 15· last 15 games80%needs 63% to break even11 of 12 at home |
| -7.7Not beating its price |
| Under 80.5 rush + rec yardsTony Pollard · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ET | -114at DraftKings | 5 of 6· this season83%needs 53% to break even9 of 12 at home | Record is this season's | -7.8Not beating its price |
| Under 16.5 rush attemptsTony Pollard · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ET | +100at Fanatics | 12 of 17· last season71%needs 50% to break even9 of 12 at home | Record is last season's | -8.4Not beating its price |
| Under 76.5 rush + rec yardsTony Pollard · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ET | -113at FanDuel | 5 of 6· this season83%needs 53% to break even9 of 12 at home | Record is this season's | -8.7Not beating its price |
| Under 79.5 rushing yardsTony Pollard · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ET | -199at Kalshi | 6 of 6· this season100%needs 67% to break even9 of 12 at home | Record is this season's | -9.1Not beating its price |
| Under 79.5 rush + rec yardsTony Pollard · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ET | -131at Kalshi | 5 of 6· this season83%needs 57% to break even9 of 12 at home | Record is this season's | -10.6Not beating its price |
| Under 68.5 rushing yardsTony Pollard · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ET | -115at DraftKings | 12 of 17· last season71%needs 53% to break even9 of 12 at home | Record is last season's | -13.6Not beating its price |
| Under 65.5 rushing yardsTony Pollard · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ET | -110at Fanatics | 11 of 17· last season65%needs 52% to break even9 of 12 at home | Record is last season's | -13.9Not beating its price |
| Over 2.5 receptionsTony Pollard · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ET | +260at Caesars | 6 of 17· last season35%needs 28% to break even3 of 12 at home | Record is last season's | -14.4Not beating its price |
| Under 66.5 rushing yardsTony Pollard · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ET | -114at FanDuel | 11 of 17· last season65%needs 53% to break even9 of 12 at home | Record is last season's | -14.6Not beating its price |
| Under 49.5 rushing yardsTony Pollard · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ET | +198at Kalshi | 7 of 17· last season41%needs 34% to break even5 of 12 at home | Record is last season's | -15.2Not beating its price |
| Under 1.5 receptionsTony Pollard · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ET | -108at FanDuel | 9 of 15· last 15 games60%needs 52% to break even7 of 12 at home | -15.4Not beating its price |
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. A thin upright line marks where this season starts. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price. A yes-or-no bet (a draw, both teams to score, a TD) shows one same-size bar per game, green when it won.
Create a free account to see games like tonight
Free, takes a few seconds. No card needed.
Create a free account to see every number on a bet
Free, takes a few seconds. No card needed.