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NFLPlayer propRush + rec yards
Tony Pollard under 79.5 rush + rec yards
Won5 of 6this season · 83%
Best price-131Kalshi
Price needs56.7%wins to break even
Every game16 of 23this season and last
Trend score-10.6Not beating its price
How often it won
This exact bet replayed over each stretch of recent games, against the 57% the best price needs to break even. A short run proves less than a long one: “likely win rate” is the range its true rate probably sits in.
| Games | Record | Likely win rate | Compared with the price | Average |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 games | 4 of 580%needs 57% to break even | 44%–95% | 23 points betterwon 80%, needs 57% | 67.8rushing and receiving yards |
| Last 10 games | 6 of 1060%needs 57% to break even | 35%–81% | 3 points betterwon 60%, needs 57% | 74.7rushing and receiving yards |
| Last 15 games | 10 of 1567%needs 57% to break even | 46%–83% | 10 points betterwon 67%, needs 57% | 73.7rushing and receiving yards |
| This season | 5 of 683%needs 57% to break even | 50%–96% | 27 points betterwon 83%, needs 57% | 62.2rushing and receiving yards |
| Last season | 11 of 1765%needs 57% to break even | 45%–81% | 8 points betterwon 65%, needs 57% | 75.8rushing and receiving yards |
| Every game | 16 of 2370%needs 57% to break even | 52%–83% | 13 points betterwon 70%, needs 57% | 72.2rushing and receiving yards |
Games like tonight
Tonight TEN plays at home, as the underdog, after a win, against CLE. Tap any of these to count only past games that looked the same; the record and every number below follow.
This season and last: 9 of 12 at home. Tonight: CLE allows 116.5 rushing and receiving yards a game to running backs, the 13th fewest of 32 defenses (the average defense allows 120.9). How CLE defends running backs
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Every book's price
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Tony Pollard under 79.5 rush + rec yards1 book
Best price at the top. Each row shows what a winning $100 bet pays compared with it.
Every game behind it
Rush + rec yards in each game against under 79.5, newest first. Ties (pushes) don't count toward the record.
| Date | Opponent | Rush + rec yards | Beat 79.5 by | Bet |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| This season | ||||
| Wk 6 |  IND | 76 | +3.5 | Won |
| Wk 5 |  HOU | 52 | +27.5 | Won |
| Wk 4 |  BAL | 50 | +29.5 | Won |
| Wk 3 |  NYG | 96 | -16.5 | Lost |
| Wk 2 |  PHI | 65 | +14.5 | Won |
| Wk 1 |  NYJ | 34 | +45.5 | Won |
| Last season | ||||
| Wk 18 |  JAX | 65 | +14.5 | Won |
| Wk 17 |  NO | 95 | -15.5 | Lost |
| Wk 16 |  KC | 102 | -22.5 | Lost |
| Wk 15 |  SF | 112 | -32.5 | Lost |
| Wk 14 |  CLE | 161 | -81.5 | Lost |
| Wk 13 | JAX | 63 | +16.5 | Won |
| Wk 12 |  SEA | 41 | +38.5 | Won |
| Wk 11 | HOU | 26 | +53.5 | Won |
| Wk 9 |  LAC | 68 | +11.5 | Won |
| Wk 8 | IND | 53 | +26.5 | Won |
| Wk 7 |  NE | 61 | +18.5 | Won |
| Wk 6 |  LV | 47 | +32.5 | Won |
| Wk 5 |  ARI | 78 | +1.5 | Won |
| Wk 4 | HOU | 76 | +3.5 | Won |
| Wk 3 | IND | 59 | +20.5 | Won |
| Wk 2 |  LAR | 92 | -12.5 | Lost |
| Wk 1 |  DEN | 89 | -9.5 | Lost |
Every number on this bet
The same bet at other numbers, surest at the top, replayed over the same games. Where a book offers the number, its best price is beside it.
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The opposite bet
The numbers the books are posting on the other side.
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. A thin upright line marks where this season starts. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price.
More on Tony Pollard in this game
This player's other props in the game.
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. A thin upright line marks where this season starts. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price. A yes-or-no bet (a draw, both teams to score, a TD) shows one same-size bar per game, green when it won.