This exact bet replayed over each stretch of recent games, against the 54% the best price needs to break even. A short run proves less than a long one: “likely win rate” is the range its true rate probably sits in.
| Games | Record | Likely win rate | Compared with the price | Average |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 games | 4 of 580%needs 54% to break even | 44%–95% | 26 points betterwon 80%, needs 54% | 28.6receiving yards |
| Last 10 games | 4 of 667%needs 54% to break even | 35%–88% | 13 points betterwon 67%, needs 54% | 31receiving yards |
| Last 15 games | 4 of 667%needs 54% to break even | 35%–88% | 13 points betterwon 67%, needs 54% | 31receiving yards |
| This season | 4 of 667%needs 54% to break even | 35%–88% | 13 points betterwon 67%, needs 54% | 31receiving yards |
Tonight CLE plays on the road, as the favorite, after a win, against TEN. Tap any of these to count only past games that looked the same; the record and every number below follow.
Tonight: TEN allows 175.3 receiving yards a game to wide receivers, the 7th most of 32 defenses (the average defense allows 150.3): a tough matchup for this bet. How TEN defends wide receivers
Click a price to open the bet at that book, or a book's name below for everywhere it has the best price.
Best price at the top. Each row shows what a winning $100 bet pays compared with it.
Receiving yards in each game against under 37.5, newest first. Ties (pushes) don't count toward the record.
The same bet at other numbers, surest at the top, replayed over the same games. Where a book offers the number, its best price is beside it.
The numbers the books are posting on the other side.
This player's other props in the game.
| Every game |
| 4 of 667%needs 54% to break even |
| 35%–88% |
| 13 points betterwon 67%, needs 54% |
| 31receiving yards |
| 9 |
| +28.5 |
| Won |
| Wk 2 | 28 | +9.5 | Won |
| Wk 1 | 43 | -5.5 | Lost |
| -195at Fanatics |
| 3 of 6· last 10 games, 4 skipped50%needs 66% to break even |
| -25.8Not beating its price |
| Over 35.5 receiving yardsKC Concepcion · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ET | -135at Fanatics | 3 of 6· last 10 games, 4 skipped50%needs 57% to break even | -21.1Not beating its price |
| Over 37.5 receiving yardsKC Concepcion · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ET | -124at BetRivers | 2 of 6· last 10 games, 4 skipped33%needs 55% to break even | -25.5Not beating its price |
| Over 38.5 receiving yardsKC Concepcion · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ET | -114at DraftKings | 2 of 6· last 10 games, 4 skipped33%needs 53% to break even | -24.3Not beating its price |
| Over 39.5 receiving yardsKC Concepcion · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ET | -103at Kalshi | 2 of 6· last 10 games, 4 skipped33%needs 51% to break even | -22.9Not beating its price |
| Over 42.5 receiving yardsKC Concepcion · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ET | -111at BetMGM | 2 of 6· last 10 games, 4 skipped33%needs 53% to break even | -24.0Not beating its price |
| Over 48.5 receiving yardsKC Concepcion · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ET | +129at BetOnline | 1 of 5· last 5 games20%needs 44% to break even | -21.6Not beating its price |
| Over 49.5 receiving yardsKC Concepcion · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ET | +166at DraftKings | 1 of 5· last 5 games20%needs 38% to break even | -18.2Not beating its price |
| Over 58.5 receiving yardsKC Concepcion · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ET | +189at BetOnline | 1 of 5· last 5 games20%needs 35% to break even | -16.6Not beating its price |
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price.
| -111at BetMGM |
| 4 of 6· last 10 games, 4 skipped67%needs 53% to break even |
| -11.5Not beating its price |
| Scores a TDKC Concepcion · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ET | +331at Kalshi | 0 of 5· last 5 games0%needs 23% to break even | -12.7Not beating its price |
| Over 5.5 receptionsKC Concepcion · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ET | +225at BetRivers | 1 of 5· last 5 games20%needs 31% to break even | -14.5Not beating its price |
| Over 3.5 receptionsKC Concepcion · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ET | -186at BetRivers | 4 of 6· last 10 games, 4 skipped67%needs 65% to break even | -18.3Not beating its price |
| Over 4.5 receptionsKC Concepcion · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ET | +115at BetRivers | 2 of 5· last 5 games40%needs 47% to break even | -18.4Not beating its price |
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price. A yes-or-no bet (a draw, both teams to score, a TD) shows one same-size bar per game, green when it won.
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