This exact bet replayed over each stretch of recent games, against the 38% the best price needs to break even. A short run proves less than a long one: “likely win rate” is the range its true rate probably sits in.
| Games | Record | Likely win rate | Compared with the price | Average |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 games | 1 of 520%needs 38% to break even | 5%–56% | 18 points shortwon 20%, needs 38% | 28.6receiving yards |
| Last 10 games | 1 of 617%needs 38% to break even | 4%–50% | 21 points shortwon 17%, needs 38% | 31receiving yards |
| Last 15 games | 1 of 617%needs 38% to break even | 4%–50% | 21 points shortwon 17%, needs 38% | 31receiving yards |
| This season | 1 of 617%needs 38% to break even | 4%–50% | 21 points shortwon 17%, needs 38% | 31receiving yards |
| Every game | 1 of 6 |
Tonight CLE plays on the road, as the favorite, after a win, against TEN. Tap any of these to count only past games that looked the same; the record and every number below follow.
Tonight: TEN allows 175.3 receiving yards a game to wide receivers, the 7th most of 32 defenses (the average defense allows 150.3): an easy matchup for this bet. How TEN defends wide receivers
Click a price to open the bet at that book, or a book's name below for everywhere it has the best price.
Best price at the top. Each row shows what a winning $100 bet pays compared with it.
Receiving yards in each game against over 49.5, newest first. Ties (pushes) don't count toward the record.
The same bet at other numbers, surest at the top, replayed over the same games. Where a book offers the number, its best price is beside it.
The numbers the books are posting on the other side.
This player's other props in the game.
| 4%–50% |
| 21 points shortwon 17%, needs 38% |
| 31receiving yards |
| 9 |
| -40.5 |
| Lost |
| Wk 2 | 28 | -21.5 | Lost |
| Wk 1 | 43 | -6.5 | Lost |
| +100at Fanatics |
| 3 of 5· last 5 games60%needs 50% to break even |
| -14.0Not beating its price |
| Under 37.5 receiving yardsKC Concepcion · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ET | -117at BetRivers | 4 of 5· last 5 games80%needs 54% to break even | -8.4Not beating its price |
| Under 38.5 receiving yardsKC Concepcion · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ET | -110at DraftKings | 4 of 5· last 5 games80%needs 52% to break even | -7.6Not beating its price |
| Under 42.5 receiving yardsKC Concepcion · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ET | -118at BetMGM | 4 of 5· last 5 games80%needs 54% to break even | -8.5Not beating its price |
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price.
| -111at BetMGM |
| 4 of 6· last 10 games, 4 skipped67%needs 53% to break even |
| -11.5Not beating its price |
| Scores a TDKC Concepcion · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ET | +331at Kalshi | 0 of 5· last 5 games0%needs 23% to break even | -12.7Not beating its price |
| Over 5.5 receptionsKC Concepcion · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ET | +225at BetRivers | 1 of 5· last 5 games20%needs 31% to break even | -14.5Not beating its price |
| Over 3.5 receptionsKC Concepcion · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ET | -186at BetRivers | 4 of 6· last 10 games, 4 skipped67%needs 65% to break even | -18.3Not beating its price |
| Over 4.5 receptionsKC Concepcion · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ET | +115at BetRivers | 2 of 5· last 5 games40%needs 47% to break even | -18.4Not beating its price |
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price. A yes-or-no bet (a draw, both teams to score, a TD) shows one same-size bar per game, green when it won.
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