This exact bet replayed over each stretch of recent games, against the 53% the best price needs to break even. A short run proves less than a long one: “likely win rate” is the range its true rate probably sits in.
| Games | Record | Likely win rate | Compared with the price | Average |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 games | 1 of 520%needs 53% to break even | 5%–56% | 33 points shortwon 20%, needs 53% | 180.6passing and rushing yards |
| Last 10 games | 3 of 1030%needs 53% to break even | 13%–56% | 23 points shortwon 30%, needs 53% | 179.7passing and rushing yards |
| Last 15 games | 5 of 1533%needs 53% to break even | 17%–54% | 19 points shortwon 33%, needs 53% | 182.5passing and rushing yards |
| This season | 1 of 617%needs 53% to break even | 4%–50% | 36 points shortwon 17%, needs 53% | 177.3passing and rushing yards |
| Last season | 9 of 1753%needs 53% to break even | 34%–71% | evenwon 53%, needs 53% | 195.8passing and rushing yards |
| Every game | 10 of 2343%needs 53% to break even | 28%–60% | 9 points shortwon 43%, needs 53% | 191passing and rushing yards |
Tonight TEN plays at home, as the underdog, after a win, against CLE. Tap any of these to count only past games that looked the same; the record and every number below follow.
This season and last: 6 of 12 at home. Tonight: CLE allows 238 passing and rushing yards a game to quarterbacks, the 11th fewest of 32 defenses (the average defense allows 253.4): a tough matchup for this bet. How CLE defends quarterbacks
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Best price at the top. Each row shows what a winning $100 bet pays compared with it.
Pass + rush yards in each game against over 195.5, newest first. Ties (pushes) don't count toward the record.
| Date | Opponent | Pass + rush yards | Beat 195.5 by | Bet |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| This season | ||||
| Wk 6 | 109 | -86.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 5 | 172 | -23.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 4 | 249 | +53.5 | Won | |
| Wk 3 | 183 | -12.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 2 | 190 | -5.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 1 | 161 | -34.5 | Lost | |
| Last season | ||||
| Wk 18 | 63 | -132.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 17 | 261 | +65.5 | Won | |
| Wk 16 | 237 | +41.5 | Won | |
| Wk 15 | 172 | -23.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 14 | 121 | -74.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 13 | 148 | -47.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 12 | 293 | +97.5 | Won | |
| Wk 11 | 227 | +31.5 | Won | |
| Wk 9 | 151 | -44.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 8 | 263 | +67.5 | Won | |
| Wk 7 | 255 | +59.5 | Won | |
| Wk 6 | 222 | +26.5 | Won | |
| Wk 5 | 259 | +63.5 | Won | |
| Wk 4 | 130 | -65.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 3 | 231 | +35.5 | Won | |
| Wk 2 | 183 | -12.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 1 | 112 | -83.5 | Lost | |
The same bet at other numbers, surest at the top, replayed over the same games. Where a book offers the number, its best price is beside it.
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The numbers the books are posting on the other side.
| Bet | Best price | How often it won | Last 10 games | Trend score | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under 192.5 pass + rush yardsCam Ward · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ET | -114at FanDuel | 5 of 6· this season83%needs 53% to break even6 of 12 at home | Record is this season's | -9.5Not beating its price | |
| Under 195.5 pass + rush yardsCam Ward · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ET | -114at DraftKings | 5 of 6· this season83%needs 53% to break even6 of 12 at home | Record is this season's | -9.5Not beating its price | |
| Under 196.5 pass + rush yardsCam Ward · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ET | -115at BetMGM | 5 of 6· this season83%needs 53% to break even6 of 12 at home | Record is this season's | -9.7Not beating its price | |
| Under 197.5 pass + rush yardsCam Ward · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ET | -130at BetRivers | 5 of 6· this season83%needs 57% to break even6 of 12 at home | Record is this season's | -12.2Not beating its price |
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. A thin upright line marks where this season starts. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price.
This player's other props in the game.
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. A thin upright line marks where this season starts. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price. A yes-or-no bet (a draw, both teams to score, a TD) shows one same-size bar per game, green when it won.