This exact bet replayed over each stretch of recent games, against the 40% the best price needs to break even. A short run proves less than a long one: “likely win rate” is the range its true rate probably sits in.
| Games | Record | Likely win rate | Compared with the price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 games | 2 of 540%needs 40% to break even | 14%–73% | evenwon 40%, needs 40% |
| Last 10 games | 5 of 1050%needs 40% to break even | 27%–73% | 10 points betterwon 50%, needs 40% |
| Last 15 games | 8 of 1553%needs 40% to break even | 33%–72% | 14 points betterwon 53%, needs 40% |
| This season | 2 of 633%needs 40% to break even | 12%–65% | 6 points shortwon 33%, needs 40% |
| Last season | 10 of 1759%needs 40% to break even | 39%–76% | 19 points betterwon 59%, needs 40% |
| Every game | 12 of 2352%needs 40% to break even | 36%–68% | 12 points betterwon 52%, needs 40% |
Tonight BAL plays at home, as the favorite, after a loss, against CIN. Tap any of these to count only past games that looked the same; the record and every number below follow.
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Click a price to open the bet at that book, or a book's name below for everywhere it has the best price.
Best price at the top. Each row shows what a winning $100 bet pays compared with it.
1H total points in each game against under 20.5, newest first. Ties (pushes) don't count toward the record.
| Date | Opponent | 1H total points | Beat 20.5 by | Bet |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| This season | ||||
| Oct 18 | 10 | +10.5 | Won | |
| Oct 11 | 23 | -2.5 | Lost | |
| Oct 4 | 31 | -10.5 | Lost | |
| Sep 27 | 30 | -9.5 | Lost | |
| Sep 20 | 20 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Sep 13 | 44 | -23.5 | Lost | |
| Last season | ||||
| Jan 4 | 13 | +7.5 | Won | |
| Dec 27 | 41 | -20.5 | Lost | |
| Dec 21 | 20 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Dec 14 | 14 | +6.5 | Won | |
| Dec 7 | 26 | -5.5 | Lost | |
| Nov 27 | 19 | +1.5 | Won | |
| Nov 23 | 10 | +10.5 | Won | |
| Nov 16 | 26 | -5.5 | Lost | |
| Nov 9 | 19 | +1.5 | Won | |
| Oct 30 | 20 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Oct 26 | 16 | +4.5 | Won | |
| Oct 12 | 6 | +14.5 | Won | |
| Oct 5 | 27 | -6.5 | Lost | |
| Sep 28 | 30 | -9.5 | Lost | |
| Sep 22 | 28 | -7.5 | Lost | |
| Sep 14 | 13 | +7.5 | Won | |
| Sep 7 | 33 | -12.5 | Lost | |
The same bet at other numbers, surest at the top, replayed over the same games. Where a book offers the number, its best price is beside it.
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The numbers the books are posting on the other side.
| Bet | Best price | How often it won | Last 10 games | Trend score | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 21.5 1st half totalBaltimore Ravens · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ET | -183at Kalshi | 4 of 6· this season67%needs 65% to break even | Record is this season's | -30.1Not beating its price | |
| Over 22.5 1st half totalBaltimore Ravens · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ET | -158at Polymarket | 4 of 6· this season67%needs 61% to break even | Record is this season's | -27.3Not beating its price | |
| Over 24.5 1st half totalBaltimore Ravens · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ET | +109at Kalshi | 7 of 17· last season41%needs 48% to break even | Record is last season's | -22.1Not beating its price | |
| Over 25.5 1st half totalBaltimore Ravens · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ET | +114at Kalshi | 7 of 17· last season41%needs 47% to break even | Record is last season's | -21.2Not beating its price | |
| Over 28.5 1st half totalBaltimore Ravens · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ET | +181at Kalshi | 3 of 6· this season50%needs 36% to break even | Record is this season's | -17.1Not beating its price |
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price.
This team's other lines in the game.
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price.