This exact bet replayed over each stretch of recent games, against the 45% the best price needs to break even. A short run proves less than a long one: “likely win rate” is the range its true rate probably sits in.
| Games | Record | Likely win rate | Compared with the price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 games | 1 of 520%needs 45% to break even | 5%–56% | 25 points shortwon 20%, needs 45% |
| Last 10 games | 3 of 1030%needs 45% to break even | 13%–56% | 15 points shortwon 30%, needs 45% |
| Last 15 games | 5 of 1533%needs 45% to break even | 17%–54% | 11 points shortwon 33%, needs 45% |
| This season | 1 of 617%needs 45% to break even | 4%–50% | 28 points shortwon 17%, needs 45% |
| Last season | 8 of 1747%needs 45% to break even | 29%–66% | 2 points betterwon 47%, needs 45% |
| Every game | 9 of 2339%needs 45% to break even | 24%–56% | 6 points shortwon 39%, needs 45% |
Tonight BAL plays at home, as the favorite, after a loss, against CIN. Tap any of these to count only past games that looked the same; the record and every number below follow.
Click a price to open the bet at that book, or a book's name below for everywhere it has the best price.
Best price at the top. Each row shows what a winning $100 bet pays compared with it.
3Q margin in each game against bal 3q -0.5, newest first. Ties (pushes) don't count toward the record.
| Date | Opponent | 3Q margin | Beat 0.5 by | Bet |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| This season | ||||
| Oct 18 | -3 | -3.5 | Lost | |
The same bet at other numbers, surest at the top, replayed over the same games. Where a book offers the number, its best price is beside it.
This team's other lines in the game.
| Bet | Best price | How often it won | Last 10 games | Trend score | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BAL -3.5 1st half spreadBaltimore Ravens · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ET |
| Oct 11 | 3 | +2.5 | Won |
| Oct 4 | -3 | -3.5 | Lost |
| Sep 27 | -1 | -1.5 | Lost |
| Sep 20 | 0 | -0.5 | Lost |
| Sep 13 | -3 | -3.5 | Lost |
| Last season | ||||
| Jan 4 | -10 | -10.5 | Lost | |
| Dec 27 | -10 | -10.5 | Lost |
| Dec 21 | 4 | +3.5 | Won |
| Dec 14 | 3 | +2.5 | Won |
| Dec 7 | -3 | -3.5 | Lost |
| Nov 27 | -7 | -7.5 | Lost |
| Nov 23 | 14 | +13.5 | Won |
| Nov 16 | 0 | -0.5 | Lost |
| Nov 9 | 7 | +6.5 | Won |
| Oct 30 | 14 | +13.5 | Won |
| Oct 26 | 6 | +5.5 | Won |
| Oct 12 | -14 | -14.5 | Lost |
| Oct 5 | -3 | -3.5 | Lost |
| Sep 28 | -7 | -7.5 | Lost |
| Sep 22 | 0 | -0.5 | Lost |
| Sep 14 | 3 | +2.5 | Won |
| Sep 7 | 8 | +7.5 | Won |
| 8 of 10· last 10 games80%needs 38% to break even |
| 1.5Slight |
| BAL -4.5 1st half spreadBaltimore Ravens · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ET | +198at Kalshi | 7 of 10· last 10 games70%needs 34% to break even | -2.7Not beating its price |
| BAL -2.5 1st half spreadBaltimore Ravens · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ET | +119at Kalshi | 8 of 10· last 10 games80%needs 46% to break even | -4.7Not beating its price |
| BAL -1.5 1st half spreadBaltimore Ravens · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ET | +112at Polymarket | 8 of 10· last 10 games80%needs 47% to break even | -5.9Not beating its price |
| BAL -0.5 1st half spreadBaltimore Ravens · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ET | +101at Kalshi | 8 of 10· last 10 games80%needs 50% to break even | -8.0Not beating its price |
| BAL +1.5 1st half spreadBaltimore Ravens · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ET | -151at Polymarket | 9 of 10· last 10 games90%needs 60% to break even | -8.5Not beating its price |
| BAL +2.5 1st half spreadBaltimore Ravens · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ET | -151at Polymarket | 9 of 10· last 10 games90%needs 60% to break even | -8.5Not beating its price |
| BAL +0.5 1st half spreadBaltimore Ravens · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ET | -137at Kalshi | 9 of 10· last 10 games90%needs 58% to break even | -8.7Not beating its price |
| BAL -5.5 spreadBaltimore Ravens · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ET | +173at Kalshi | 8 of 15· last 15 games53%needs 37% to break even | -8.9Not beating its price |
| BAL -4.5 spreadBaltimore Ravens · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ET | +169at Polymarket | 8 of 15· last 15 games53%needs 37% to break even | -9.3Not beating its price |
| BAL -6.5 spreadBaltimore Ravens · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ET | +202at Polymarket | 8 of 17· last season47%needs 33% to break even | Record is last season's | -11.0Not beating its price |
| BAL -3.5 spreadBaltimore Ravens · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ET | +152at Kalshi | 8 of 15· last 15 games53%needs 40% to break even | -11.4Not beating its price |
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price.
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