This exact bet replayed over each stretch of recent games, against the 46% the best price needs to break even. A short run proves less than a long one: “likely win rate” is the range its true rate probably sits in.
| Games | Record | Likely win rate | Compared with the price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 games | 2 of 540%needs 46% to break even | 14%–73% | 6 points shortwon 40%, needs 46% |
| Last 10 games | 6 of 1060%needs 46% to break even | 35%–81% | 14 points betterwon 60%, needs 46% |
| Last 15 games | 9 of 1560%needs 46% to break even | 39%–78% | 14 points betterwon 60%, needs 46% |
| This season | 2 of 633%needs 46% to break even | 12%–65% | 12 points shortwon 33%, needs 46% |
| Last season | 10 of 1663%needs 46% to break even | 42%–79% | 17 points betterwon 63%, needs 46% |
| Every game |
Tonight DAL plays on the road, as the favorite, after a loss, against PHI. Tap any of these to count only past games that looked the same; the record and every number below follow.
Click a price to open the bet at that book, or a book's name below for everywhere it has the best price.
Best price at the top. Each row shows what a winning $100 bet pays compared with it.
Receiving yards in each game against under 9.5, newest first. Ties (pushes) don't count toward the record.
| Date | Opponent | Receiving yards | Beat 9.5 by | Bet |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| This season | ||||
| Wk 6 | 9 | +0.5 | ||
The same bet at other numbers, surest at the top, replayed over the same games. Where a book offers the number, its best price is beside it.
The numbers the books are posting on the other side.
| Bet | Best price | How often it won | Last 10 games | Trend score | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 9.5 receiving yardsJavonte Williams |
This player's other props in the game.
| Bet | Best price | How often it won | Last 10 games | Trend score | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under 49.5 rushing yardsJavonte Williams |
| 12 of 2255%needs 46% to break even |
| 38%–71% |
| 9 points betterwon 55%, needs 46% |
| Won |
| Wk 5 | 17 | -7.5 | Lost |
| Wk 4 | 21 | -11.5 | Lost |
| Wk 3 | 5 | +4.5 | Won |
| Wk 2 | 20 | -10.5 | Lost |
| Wk 1 | 31 | -21.5 | Lost |
| Last season | ||||
| Wk 17 | 0 | +9.5 | Won | |
| Wk 16 | 9 | +0.5 | Won |
| Wk 15 | 0 | +9.5 | Won |
| Wk 14 | 0 | +9.5 | Won |
| Wk 13 | 21 | -11.5 | Lost |
| Wk 12 | 14 | -4.5 | Lost |
| Wk 11 | 0 | +9.5 | Won |
| Wk 9 | 0 | +9.5 | Won |
| Wk 8 | 8 | +1.5 | Won |
| Wk 7 | 2 | +7.5 | Won |
| Wk 6 | 5 | +4.5 | Won |
| Wk 5 | 4 | +5.5 | Won |
| Wk 4 | 15 | -5.5 | Lost |
| Wk 3 | 16 | -6.5 | Lost |
| Wk 2 | 33 | -23.5 | Lost |
| Wk 1 | 10 | -0.5 | Lost |
| -168at Kalshi |
| 4 of 6· this season67%needs 63% to break even |
| Record is this season's |
| -31.1Not beating its price |
| Over 14.5 receiving yardsJavonte Williams · Mon, Oct 26, 8:15 PM ET | +109at Kalshi | 4 of 6· this season67%needs 48% to break even | Record is this season's | -21.6Not beating its price |
| Over 19.5 receiving yardsJavonte Williams · Mon, Oct 26, 8:15 PM ET | +181at Kalshi | 3 of 6· this season50%needs 36% to break even | Record is this season's | -18.7Not beating its price |
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price.
| +189at Kalshi |
| 4 of 6· this season67%needs 35% to break even |
| Record is this season's |
| -9.6Not beating its price |
| Scores a TDJavonte Williams · Mon, Oct 26, 8:15 PM ET | -154at Kalshi | 8 of 10· last 10 games80%needs 61% to break even | -11.1Not beating its price |
| Under 59.5 rushing yardsJavonte Williams · Mon, Oct 26, 8:15 PM ET | +114at Kalshi | 6 of 10· last 10 games60%needs 47% to break even | -13.7Not beating its price |
| Under 69.5 rushing yardsJavonte Williams · Mon, Oct 26, 8:15 PM ET | -148at Kalshi | 8 of 10· last 10 games80%needs 60% to break even | -13.7Not beating its price |
| Over 79.5 rushing yardsJavonte Williams · Mon, Oct 26, 8:15 PM ET | +166at Kalshi | 8 of 16· last season50%needs 38% to break even | Record is last season's | -19.2Not beating its price |
| Over 69.5 rushing yardsJavonte Williams · Mon, Oct 26, 8:15 PM ET | +114at Kalshi | 9 of 16· last season56%needs 47% to break even | Record is last season's | -25.5Not beating its price |
| Doesn't score a TDJavonte Williams · Mon, Oct 26, 8:15 PM ET | +119at Kalshi | 6 of 16· last season38%needs 46% to break even | Record is last season's | -27.9Not beating its price |
| Over 59.5 rushing yardsJavonte Williams · Mon, Oct 26, 8:15 PM ET | -142at Kalshi | 10 of 16· last season63%needs 59% to break even | Record is last season's | -27.9Not beating its price |
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price.
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