This exact bet replayed over each stretch of recent games, against the 38% the best price needs to break even. A short run proves less than a long one: “likely win rate” is the range its true rate probably sits in.
| Games | Record | Likely win rate | Compared with the price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 games | 1 of 520%needs 38% to break even | 5%–56% | 18 points shortwon 20%, needs 38% |
| Last 10 games | 2 of 1020%needs 38% to break even | 7%–46% | 18 points shortwon 20%, needs 38% |
| Last 15 games | 3 of 1520%needs 38% to break even | 8%–41% | 18 points shortwon 20%, needs 38% |
| This season | 1 of 617%needs 38% to break even | 4%–50% | 21 points shortwon 17%, needs 38% |
| Last season | 6 of 1735%needs 38% to break even | 19%–55% | 2 points shortwon 35%, needs 38% |
| Every game | 7 of 2330%needs 38% to break even | 17%–48% | 7 points shortwon 30%, needs 38% |
Tonight ARI plays at home, as the underdog, after a win, against DEN. Tap any of these to count only past games that looked the same; the record and every number below follow.
Click a price to open the bet at that book, or a book's name below for everywhere it has the best price.
Best price at the top. Each row shows what a winning $100 bet pays compared with it.
1Q total points in each game against under 6.5, newest first. Ties (pushes) don't count toward the record.
The same bet at other numbers, surest at the top, replayed over the same games. Where a book offers the number, its best price is beside it.
The numbers the books are posting on the other side.
| Bet | Best price | How often it won | Last 10 games | Trend score | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 7.5 1st quarter totalArizona Cardinals · Sun, Oct 25, 4:05 PM ET |
This team's other lines in the game.
| Bet | Best price | How often it won | Last 10 games | Trend score | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 49.5 game total, ARI gamesArizona Cardinals · Sun, Oct 25, 4:05 PM ET |
| 6 |
| +0.5 |
| Won |
| Oct 11 | 7 | -0.5 | Lost |
| Oct 4 | 17 | -10.5 | Lost |
| Sep 27 | 7 | -0.5 | Lost |
| Sep 20 | 7 | -0.5 | Lost |
| Sep 13 | 14 | -7.5 | Lost |
| Last season | ||||
| Jan 4 | 6 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Dec 28 | 7 | -0.5 | Lost |
| Dec 21 | 13 | -6.5 | Lost |
| Dec 14 | 17 | -10.5 | Lost |
| Dec 7 | 17 | -10.5 | Lost |
| Nov 30 | 0 | +6.5 | Won |
| Nov 23 | 14 | -7.5 | Lost |
| Nov 16 | 20 | -13.5 | Lost |
| Nov 9 | 21 | -14.5 | Lost |
| Nov 3 | 3 | +3.5 | Won |
| Oct 19 | 3 | +3.5 | Won |
| Oct 12 | 14 | -7.5 | Lost |
| Oct 5 | 17 | -10.5 | Lost |
| Sep 25 | 10 | -3.5 | Lost |
| Sep 21 | 0 | +6.5 | Won |
| Sep 14 | 13 | -6.5 | Lost |
| Sep 7 | 3 | +3.5 | Won |
| 10 of 17· last season59%needs 50% to break even |
| Record is last season's |
| -22.0Not beating its price |
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price.
| 10 of 15· last 15 games67%needs 34% to break even |
| -0.3Not beating its price |
| Over 50.5 game total, ARI gamesArizona Cardinals · Sun, Oct 25, 4:05 PM ET | +193at Polymarket | 10 of 15· last 15 games67%needs 34% to break even | -1.8Not beating its price |
| Over 48.5 game total, ARI gamesArizona Cardinals · Sun, Oct 25, 4:05 PM ET | +162at Polymarket | 10 of 15· last 15 games67%needs 38% to break even | -3.0Not beating its price |
| Over 7.5 3rd quarter totalArizona Cardinals · Sun, Oct 25, 4:05 PM ET | -123at Polymarket | 12 of 15· last 15 games80%needs 55% to break even | -4.0Not beating its price |
| Over 10.5 3rd quarter totalArizona Cardinals · Sun, Oct 25, 4:05 PM ET | +173at Kalshi | 6 of 10· last 10 games60%needs 37% to break even | -4.9Not beating its price |
| Over 44.5 game total, ARI gamesArizona Cardinals · Sun, Oct 25, 4:05 PM ET | +116at Polymarket | 11 of 15· last 15 games73%needs 46% to break even | -6.0Not beating its price |
| Over 17.5 team totalArizona Cardinals · Sun, Oct 25, 4:05 PM ET | -148at Kalshi | 13 of 17· last season76%needs 60% to break even | Record is last season's | -6.4Not beating its price |
| Over 17.5 1st half totalArizona Cardinals · Sun, Oct 25, 4:05 PM ET | -199at Kalshi | 13 of 15· last 15 games87%needs 67% to break even | -6.5Not beating its price |
| Over 46.5 game total, ARI gamesArizona Cardinals · Sun, Oct 25, 4:05 PM ET | +134at Kalshi | 10 of 15· last 15 games67%needs 43% to break even | -6.8Not beating its price |
| Over 20.5 2nd half totalArizona Cardinals · Sun, Oct 25, 4:05 PM ET | -131at Kalshi | 12 of 15· last 15 games80%needs 57% to break even | -6.9Not beating its price |
| Over 21.5 1st half totalArizona Cardinals · Sun, Oct 25, 4:05 PM ET | -103at Kalshi | 13 of 17· last season76%needs 51% to break even | Record is last season's | -7.2Not beating its price |
| Over 45.5 game total, ARI gamesArizona Cardinals · Sun, Oct 25, 4:05 PM ET | +129at Kalshi | 10 of 15· last 15 games67%needs 44% to break even | -7.5Not beating its price |
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price.
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