This exact bet replayed over each stretch of recent games, against the 53% the best price needs to break even. A short run proves less than a long one: “likely win rate” is the range its true rate probably sits in.
| Games | Record | Likely win rate | Compared with the price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 games | 4 of 580%needs 53% to break even | 44%–95% | 27 points betterwon 80%, needs 53% |
| Last 10 games | 6 of 1060%needs 53% to break even | 35%–81% | 7 points betterwon 60%, needs 53% |
| Last 15 games | 7 of 1547%needs 53% to break even | 28%–67% | 6 points shortwon 47%, needs 53% |
| This season | 4 of 667%needs 53% to break even | 35%–88% | 14 points betterwon 67%, needs 53% |
| Last season | 8 of 1747%needs 53% to break even | 29%–66% | 6 points shortwon 47%, needs 53% |
Tonight ARI plays at home, as the underdog, after a win, against DEN. Tap any of these to count only past games that looked the same; the record and every number below follow.
Click a price to open the bet at that book, or a book's name below for everywhere it has the best price.
Best price at the top. Each row shows what a winning $100 bet pays compared with it.
Receiving yards in each game against under 66.5, newest first. Ties (pushes) don't count toward the record.
The same bet at other numbers, surest at the top, replayed over the same games. Where a book offers the number, its best price is beside it.
The numbers the books are posting on the other side.
| Bet | Best price | How often it won | Last 10 games | Trend score | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 59.5 receiving yardsTrey McBride |
This player's other props in the game.
| Bet | Best price | How often it won | Last 10 games | Trend score | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 6.5 receptionsTrey McBride |
| Every game |
| 12 of 2352%needs 53% to break even |
| 36%–68% |
| 1 points shortwon 52%, needs 53% |
| 53 |
| +13.5 |
| Won |
| Wk 5 | 66 | +0.5 | Won |
| Wk 4 | 31 | +35.5 | Won |
| Wk 3 | 75 | -8.5 | Lost |
| Wk 2 | 41 | +25.5 | Won |
| Wk 1 | 95 | -28.5 | Lost |
| Last season | ||||
| Wk 18 | 65 | +1.5 | Won | |
| Wk 17 | 76 | -9.5 | Lost |
| Wk 16 | 27 | +39.5 | Won |
| Wk 15 | 134 | -67.5 | Lost |
| Wk 14 | 58 | +8.5 | Won |
| Wk 13 | 82 | -15.5 | Lost |
| Wk 12 | 79 | -12.5 | Lost |
| Wk 11 | 115 | -48.5 | Lost |
| Wk 10 | 127 | -60.5 | Lost |
| Wk 9 | 55 | +11.5 | Won |
| Wk 7 | 74 | -7.5 | Lost |
| Wk 6 | 72 | -5.5 | Lost |
| Wk 5 | 41 | +25.5 | Won |
| Wk 4 | 52 | +14.5 | Won |
| Wk 3 | 43 | +23.5 | Won |
| Wk 2 | 78 | -11.5 | Lost |
| Wk 1 | 61 | +5.5 | Won |
| -137at Kalshi |
| 10 of 15· last 15 games67%needs 58% to break even |
| -19.6Not beating its price |
| Over 64.5 receiving yardsTrey McBride · Sun, Oct 25, 4:05 PM ET | -118at BetRivers | 10 of 15· last 15 games67%needs 54% to break even | -17.7Not beating its price |
| Over 65.5 receiving yardsTrey McBride · Sun, Oct 25, 4:05 PM ET | -114at FanDuel | 9 of 15· last 15 games60%needs 53% to break even | -20.5Not beating its price |
| Over 66.5 receiving yardsTrey McBride · Sun, Oct 25, 4:05 PM ET | -111at DraftKings | 9 of 17· last season53%needs 53% to break even | Record is last season's | -25.1Not beating its price |
| Over 69.5 receiving yardsTrey McBride · Sun, Oct 25, 4:05 PM ET | +119at Kalshi | 9 of 17· last season53%needs 46% to break even | Record is last season's | -19.4Not beating its price |
| Over 79.5 receiving yardsTrey McBride · Sun, Oct 25, 4:05 PM ET | +181at Kalshi | 5 of 15· last 15 games33%needs 36% to break even | -22.4Not beating its price |
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price.
| -154at Kalshi |
| 6 of 6· this season100%needs 61% to break even |
| Record is this season's |
| -0.7Not beating its price |
| Over 7.5 receptionsTrey McBride · Sun, Oct 25, 4:05 PM ET | +124at Kalshi | 10 of 15· last 15 games67%needs 45% to break even | -8.4Not beating its price |
| Over 8.5 receptionsTrey McBride · Sun, Oct 25, 4:05 PM ET | +189at Kalshi | 8 of 15· last 15 games53%needs 35% to break even | -9.1Not beating its price |
| Scores a TDTrey McBride · Sun, Oct 25, 4:05 PM ET | +152at Kalshi | 9 of 17· last season53%needs 40% to break even | Record is last season's | -10.3Not beating its price |
| Under 5.5 receptionsTrey McBride · Sun, Oct 25, 4:05 PM ET | +198at Kalshi | 5 of 17· last season29%needs 34% to break even | Record is last season's | -23.3Not beating its price |
| Under 7.5 receptionsTrey McBride · Sun, Oct 25, 4:05 PM ET | -135at DraftKings | 9 of 17· last season53%needs 57% to break even | Record is last season's | -30.5Not beating its price |
| Doesn't score a TDTrey McBride · Sun, Oct 25, 4:05 PM ET | -191at Kalshi | 8 of 17· last season47%needs 66% to break even | Record is last season's | -32.0Not beating its price |
| Under 6.5 receptionsTrey McBride · Sun, Oct 25, 4:05 PM ET | +109at Kalshi | 7 of 17· last season41%needs 48% to break even | Record is last season's | -33.2Not beating its price |
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price.
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