This exact bet replayed over each stretch of recent games, against the 43% the best price needs to break even. A short run proves less than a long one: “likely win rate” is the range its true rate probably sits in.
| Games | Record | Likely win rate | Compared with the price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 games | 1 of 520%needs 43% to break even | 5%–56% | 23 points shortwon 20%, needs 43% |
| Last 10 games | 4 of 1040%needs 43% to break even | 19%–65% | 3 points shortwon 40%, needs 43% |
| Last 15 games | 5 of 1533%needs 43% to break even | 17%–54% | 9 points shortwon 33%, needs 43% |
| This season | 2 of 633%needs 43% to break even | 12%–65% | 9 points shortwon 33%, needs 43% |
| Last season | 6 of 1833%needs 43% to break even | 18%–53% | 9 points shortwon 33%, needs 43% |
| Every game | 8 of 2433%needs 43% to break even | 20%–50% | 9 points shortwon 33%, needs 43% |
Tonight PIT plays on the road, as the favorite, after a win, against NO. Tap any of these to count only past games that looked the same; the record and every number below follow.
Click a price to open the bet at that book, or a book's name below for everywhere it has the best price.
Best price at the top. Each row shows what a winning $100 bet pays compared with it.
Total points in each game against under 41.5, newest first. Ties (pushes) don't count toward the record.
The same bet at other numbers, surest at the top, replayed over the same games. Where a book offers the number, its best price is beside it.
The numbers the books are posting on the other side.
| Bet | Best price | How often it won | Last 10 games | Trend score | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 40.5 game total, PIT gamesPittsburgh Steelers · Sun, Oct 25, 9:30 AM ET |
This team's other lines in the game.
| Bet | Best price | How often it won | Last 10 games | Trend score | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PIT -4.5 2nd half spreadPittsburgh Steelers · Sun, Oct 25, 9:30 AM ET |
| 45 |
| -3.5 |
| Lost |
| Oct 11 | 56 | -14.5 | Lost |
| Oct 1 | 51 | -9.5 | Lost |
| Sep 27 | 57 | -15.5 | Lost |
| Sep 20 | 23 | +18.5 | Won |
| Sep 13 | 33 | +8.5 | Won |
| Last season | ||||
| Jan 12 | 36 | +5.5 | Won | |
| Jan 4 | 50 | -8.5 | Lost |
| Dec 28 | 19 | +22.5 | Won |
| Dec 21 | 53 | -11.5 | Lost |
| Dec 15 | 43 | -1.5 | Lost |
| Dec 7 | 49 | -7.5 | Lost |
| Nov 30 | 33 | +8.5 | Won |
| Nov 23 | 59 | -17.5 | Lost |
| Nov 16 | 46 | -4.5 | Lost |
| Nov 9 | 35 | +6.5 | Won |
| Nov 2 | 47 | -5.5 | Lost |
| Oct 26 | 60 | -18.5 | Lost |
| Oct 16 | 64 | -22.5 | Lost |
| Oct 12 | 32 | +9.5 | Won |
| Sep 28 | 45 | -3.5 | Lost |
| Sep 21 | 35 | +6.5 | Won |
| Sep 14 | 48 | -6.5 | Lost |
| Sep 7 | 66 | -24.5 | Lost |
| 12 of 18· last season67%needs 65% to break even |
| Record is last season's |
| -19.6Not beating its price |
| Over 41.5 game total, PIT gamesPittsburgh Steelers · Sun, Oct 25, 9:30 AM ET | -168at Kalshi | 12 of 18· last season67%needs 63% to break even | Record is last season's | -17.6Not beating its price |
| Over 42.5 game total, PIT gamesPittsburgh Steelers · Sun, Oct 25, 9:30 AM ET | -145at Polymarket | 12 of 18· last season67%needs 59% to break even | Record is last season's | -14.7Not beating its price |
| Over 43.5 game total, PIT gamesPittsburgh Steelers · Sun, Oct 25, 9:30 AM ET | -131at Kalshi | 4 of 5· last 5 games80%needs 57% to break even | -14.8Not beating its price |
| Over 44.5 game total, PIT gamesPittsburgh Steelers · Sun, Oct 25, 9:30 AM ET | NV-102at Novig | 4 of 5· last 5 games80%needs 50% to break even | -9.6Not beating its price |
| Over 45.5 game total, PIT gamesPittsburgh Steelers · Sun, Oct 25, 9:30 AM ET | +105at Kalshi | 10 of 18· last season56%needs 49% to break even | Record is last season's | -15.7Not beating its price |
| Over 46.5 game total, PIT gamesPittsburgh Steelers · Sun, Oct 25, 9:30 AM ET | +114at Kalshi | 9 of 18· last season50%needs 47% to break even | Record is last season's | -16.0Not beating its price |
| Over 47.5 game total, PIT gamesPittsburgh Steelers · Sun, Oct 25, 9:30 AM ET | +129at Kalshi | 7 of 15· last 15 games47%needs 44% to break even | -14.4Not beating its price |
| Over 48.5 game total, PIT gamesPittsburgh Steelers · Sun, Oct 25, 9:30 AM ET | +131at Polymarket | 7 of 15· last 15 games47%needs 43% to break even | -15.1Not beating its price |
| Over 50.5 game total, PIT gamesPittsburgh Steelers · Sun, Oct 25, 9:30 AM ET | +181at Kalshi | 3 of 5· last 5 games60%needs 36% to break even | -13.4Not beating its price |
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price.
| 7 of 15· last 15 games47%needs 34% to break even |
| -7.9Not beating its price |
| PIT -2.5 2nd half spreadPittsburgh Steelers · Sun, Oct 25, 9:30 AM ET | +119at Kalshi | 4 of 5· last 5 games80%needs 46% to break even | -10.6Not beating its price |
| PIT -3.5 2nd half spreadPittsburgh Steelers · Sun, Oct 25, 9:30 AM ET | +159at Kalshi | 7 of 15· last 15 games47%needs 39% to break even | -11.2Not beating its price |
| Under 9.5 1st half team totalPittsburgh Steelers · Sun, Oct 25, 9:30 AM ET | +181at Kalshi | 7 of 15· last 15 games47%needs 36% to break even | -12.0Not beating its price |
| PIT -3.5 4th quarter spreadPittsburgh Steelers · Sun, Oct 25, 9:30 AM ET | +189at Kalshi | 4 of 6· this season67%needs 35% to break even | Record is this season's | -12.0Not beating its price |
| Under 11.5 1st half team totalPittsburgh Steelers · Sun, Oct 25, 9:30 AM ET | -103at Kalshi | 10 of 15· last 15 games67%needs 51% to break even | -12.5Not beating its price |
| Under 10.5 1st half team totalPittsburgh Steelers · Sun, Oct 25, 9:30 AM ET | -105at Polymarket | 10 of 15· last 15 games67%needs 51% to break even | -12.9Not beating its price |
| Over 23.5 team totalPittsburgh Steelers · Sun, Oct 25, 9:30 AM ET | -126at Kalshi | 10 of 15· last 15 games67%needs 56% to break even | -13.0Not beating its price |
| Over 24.5 team totalPittsburgh Steelers · Sun, Oct 25, 9:30 AM ET | +109at Kalshi | 9 of 15· last 15 games60%needs 48% to break even | -14.0Not beating its price |
| Under 12.5 1st half team totalPittsburgh Steelers · Sun, Oct 25, 9:30 AM ET | -112at Kalshi | 10 of 15· last 15 games67%needs 53% to break even | -14.2Not beating its price |
| PIT -2.5 4th quarter spreadPittsburgh Steelers · Sun, Oct 25, 9:30 AM ET | +129at Kalshi | 4 of 6· this season67%needs 44% to break even | Record is this season's | -16.7Not beating its price |
| PIT -0.5 1st quarter spreadPittsburgh Steelers · Sun, Oct 25, 9:30 AM ET | +109at Kalshi | 9 of 18· last season50%needs 48% to break even | Record is last season's | -16.9Not beating its price |
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price.
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