This exact bet replayed over each stretch of recent games, against the 35% the best price needs to break even. A short run proves less than a long one: “likely win rate” is the range its true rate probably sits in.
| Games | Record | Likely win rate | Compared with the price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 games | 3 of 560%needs 35% to break even | 27%–86% | 25 points betterwon 60%, needs 35% |
| Last 10 games | 4 of 1040%needs 35% to break even | 19%–65% | 5 points betterwon 40%, needs 35% |
| Last 15 games | 5 of 1533%needs 35% to break even | 17%–54% | 1 points shortwon 33%, needs 35% |
| This season | 4 of 667%needs 35% to break even | 35%–88% | 32 points betterwon 67%, needs 35% |
| Last season | 3 of 1817%needs 35% to break even | 7%–35% | 18 points shortwon 17%, needs 35% |
| Every game | 7 of 2429%needs 35% to break even | 17%–46% | 5 points shortwon 29%, needs 35% |
Tonight PIT plays on the road, as the favorite, after a win, against NO. Tap any of these to count only past games that looked the same; the record and every number below follow.
Click a price to open the bet at that book, or a book's name below for everywhere it has the best price.
Best price at the top. Each row shows what a winning $100 bet pays compared with it.
4Q margin in each game against pit 4q -3.5, newest first. Ties (pushes) don't count toward the record.
The same bet at other numbers, surest at the top, replayed over the same games. Where a book offers the number, its best price is beside it.
This team's other lines in the game.
| Bet | Best price | How often it won | Last 10 games | Trend score | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PIT -4.5 2nd half spreadPittsburgh Steelers · Sun, Oct 25, 9:30 AM ET |
| 13 |
| +9.5 |
| Won |
| Oct 11 | 7 | +3.5 | Won |
| Oct 1 | 8 | +4.5 | Won |
| Sep 27 | -1 | -4.5 | Lost |
| Sep 20 | -7 | -10.5 | Lost |
| Sep 13 | 4 | +0.5 | Won |
| Last season | ||||
| Jan 12 | -23 | -26.5 | Lost | |
| Jan 4 | -1 | -4.5 | Lost |
| Dec 28 | -3 | -6.5 | Lost |
| Dec 21 | 3 | -0.5 | Lost |
| Dec 15 | -5 | -8.5 | Lost |
| Dec 7 | -6 | -9.5 | Lost |
| Nov 30 | -10 | -13.5 | Lost |
| Nov 23 | 0 | -3.5 | Lost |
| Nov 16 | 11 | +7.5 | Won |
| Nov 9 | -3 | -6.5 | Lost |
| Nov 2 | -3 | -6.5 | Lost |
| Oct 26 | -15 | -18.5 | Lost |
| Oct 16 | 1 | -2.5 | Lost |
| Oct 12 | 4 | +0.5 | Won |
| Sep 28 | -12 | -15.5 | Lost |
| Sep 21 | 0 | -3.5 | Lost |
| Sep 14 | -14 | -17.5 | Lost |
| Sep 7 | 11 | +7.5 | Won |
| 7 of 15· last 15 games47%needs 34% to break even |
| -7.9Not beating its price |
| Over 44.5 game total, PIT gamesPittsburgh Steelers · Sun, Oct 25, 9:30 AM ET | NV-102at Novig | 4 of 5· last 5 games80%needs 50% to break even | -9.6Not beating its price |
| PIT -2.5 2nd half spreadPittsburgh Steelers · Sun, Oct 25, 9:30 AM ET | +119at Kalshi | 4 of 5· last 5 games80%needs 46% to break even | -10.6Not beating its price |
| PIT -3.5 2nd half spreadPittsburgh Steelers · Sun, Oct 25, 9:30 AM ET | +159at Kalshi | 7 of 15· last 15 games47%needs 39% to break even | -11.2Not beating its price |
| Under 9.5 1st half team totalPittsburgh Steelers · Sun, Oct 25, 9:30 AM ET | +173at Kalshi | 7 of 15· last 15 games47%needs 37% to break even | -12.9Not beating its price |
| Over 23.5 team totalPittsburgh Steelers · Sun, Oct 25, 9:30 AM ET | -126at Kalshi | 10 of 15· last 15 games67%needs 56% to break even | -13.0Not beating its price |
| Under 11.5 1st half team totalPittsburgh Steelers · Sun, Oct 25, 9:30 AM ET | -107at Kalshi | 10 of 15· last 15 games67%needs 52% to break even | -13.3Not beating its price |
| Over 50.5 game total, PIT gamesPittsburgh Steelers · Sun, Oct 25, 9:30 AM ET | +181at Kalshi | 3 of 5· last 5 games60%needs 36% to break even | -13.4Not beating its price |
| Over 24.5 team totalPittsburgh Steelers · Sun, Oct 25, 9:30 AM ET | +109at Kalshi | 9 of 15· last 15 games60%needs 48% to break even | -14.0Not beating its price |
| Under 12.5 1st half team totalPittsburgh Steelers · Sun, Oct 25, 9:30 AM ET | -112at Kalshi | 10 of 15· last 15 games67%needs 53% to break even | -14.2Not beating its price |
| Over 47.5 game total, PIT gamesPittsburgh Steelers · Sun, Oct 25, 9:30 AM ET | +129at Kalshi | 7 of 15· last 15 games47%needs 44% to break even | -14.4Not beating its price |
| Over 42.5 game total, PIT gamesPittsburgh Steelers · Sun, Oct 25, 9:30 AM ET | -145at Polymarket | 12 of 18· last season67%needs 59% to break even | Record is last season's | -14.7Not beating its price |
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price.
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