This exact bet replayed over each stretch of recent games, against the 53% the best price needs to break even. A short run proves less than a long one: “likely win rate” is the range its true rate probably sits in.
| Games | Record | Likely win rate | Compared with the price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 games | 1 of 520%needs 53% to break even | 5%–56% | 33 points shortwon 20%, needs 53% |
| Last 10 games | 5 of 1050%needs 53% to break even | 27%–73% | 3 points shortwon 50%, needs 53% |
| Last 15 games | 10 of 1567%needs 53% to break even | 46%–83% | 13 points betterwon 67%, needs 53% |
| This season | 1 of 333%needs 53% to break even | 8%–75% | 20 points shortwon 33%, needs 53% |
| Last season | 12 of 1867%needs 53% to break even | 47%–82% | 13 points betterwon 67%, needs 53% |
| Every game |
Tonight PIT plays on the road, as the favorite, after a win, against NO. Tap any of these to count only past games that looked the same; the record and every number below follow.
Click a price to open the bet at that book, or a book's name below for everywhere it has the best price.
Best price at the top. Each row shows what a winning $100 bet pays compared with it.
Rushing yards in each game against over 31.5, newest first. Ties (pushes) don't count toward the record.
| Date | Opponent | Rushing yards | Beat 31.5 by | Bet |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| This season | ||||
| Wk 6 | 40 | +8.5 | Won | |
The same bet at other numbers, surest at the top, replayed over the same games. Where a book offers the number, its best price is beside it.
The numbers the books are posting on the other side.
| Bet | Best price | How often it won | Last 10 games | Trend score | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under 19.5 rushing yardsRico Dowdle |
This player's other props in the game.
| Bet | Best price | How often it won | Last 10 games | Trend score | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 receptionsRico Dowdle |
| 13 of 2162%needs 53% to break even |
| 44%–77% |
| 9 points betterwon 62%, needs 53% |
| Wk 2 | 22 | -9.5 | Lost |
| Wk 1 | 15 | -16.5 | Lost |
| Last season | ||||
| Wk 19 | 9 | -22.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 18 | 10 | -21.5 | Lost |
| Wk 17 | 59 | +27.5 | Won |
| Wk 16 | 29 | -2.5 | Lost |
| Wk 15 | 49 | +17.5 | Won |
| Wk 13 | 58 | +26.5 | Won |
| Wk 12 | 38 | +6.5 | Won |
| Wk 11 | 45 | +13.5 | Won |
| Wk 10 | 53 | +21.5 | Won |
| Wk 9 | 130 | +98.5 | Won |
| Wk 8 | 54 | +22.5 | Won |
| Wk 7 | 79 | +47.5 | Won |
| Wk 6 | 183 | +151.5 | Won |
| Wk 5 | 206 | +174.5 | Won |
| Wk 4 | 32 | +0.5 | Won |
| Wk 3 | 30 | -1.5 | Lost |
| Wk 2 | 9 | -22.5 | Lost |
| Wk 1 | 12 | -19.5 | Lost |
| +189at Kalshi |
| 3 of 5· last 5 games60%needs 35% to break even |
| -17.9Not beating its price |
| Under 24.5 rushing yardsRico Dowdle · Sun, Oct 25, 9:30 AM ETListed questionable | +124at Kalshi | 4 of 5· last 5 games80%needs 45% to break even | -19.4Not beating its price |
| Under 29.5 rushing yardsRico Dowdle · Sun, Oct 25, 9:30 AM ETListed questionable | -116at DraftKings | 4 of 5· last 5 games80%needs 54% to break even | -24.0Not beating its price |
| Under 30.5 rushing yardsRico Dowdle · Sun, Oct 25, 9:30 AM ETListed questionable | -114at BetOnline | 4 of 5· last 5 games80%needs 53% to break even | -22.8Not beating its price |
| Under 31.5 rushing yardsRico Dowdle · Sun, Oct 25, 9:30 AM ETListed questionable | -114at FanDuel | 4 of 5· last 5 games80%needs 53% to break even | -22.8Not beating its price |
| Under 32.5 rushing yardsRico Dowdle · Sun, Oct 25, 9:30 AM ETListed questionable | -115at BetMGM | 4 of 5· last 5 games80%needs 53% to break even | -22.1Not beating its price |
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price.
| -130at BetOnline |
| 8 of 10· last 10 games80%needs 57% to break even |
| -6.3Not beating its price |
| Over 14.5 receiving yardsRico Dowdle · Sun, Oct 25, 9:30 AM ETListed questionable | +198at Kalshi | 7 of 18· last season39%needs 34% to break even | Record is last season's | -12.8Not beating its price |
| Over 8.5 receiving yardsRico Dowdle · Sun, Oct 25, 9:30 AM ETListed questionable | -114at FanDuel | 10 of 15· last 15 games67%needs 53% to break even | -14.1Not beating its price |
| Under 10.5 receiving yardsRico Dowdle · Sun, Oct 25, 9:30 AM ETListed questionable | -118at DraftKings | 9 of 18· last season50%needs 54% to break even | Record is last season's | -21.1Not beating its price |
| Over 10.5 receiving yardsRico Dowdle · Sun, Oct 25, 9:30 AM ETListed questionable | -107at DraftKings | 8 of 15· last 15 games53%needs 52% to break even | -22.6Not beating its price |
| Under 8.5 receiving yardsRico Dowdle · Sun, Oct 25, 9:30 AM ETListed questionable | -111at BetOnline | 7 of 18· last season39%needs 53% to break even | Record is last season's | -29.0Not beating its price |
| Under 1.5 receptionsRico Dowdle · Sun, Oct 25, 9:30 AM ETListed questionable | +105at BetMGM | 7 of 18· last season39%needs 49% to break even | Record is last season's | -31.1Not beating its price |
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price.
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