This exact bet replayed over each stretch of recent games, against the 53% the best price needs to break even. A short run proves less than a long one: “likely win rate” is the range its true rate probably sits in.
| Games | Record | Likely win rate | Compared with the price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 games | 2 of 540%needs 53% to break even | 14%–73% | 13 points shortwon 40%, needs 53% |
| Last 10 games | 4 of 1040%needs 53% to break even | 19%–65% | 13 points shortwon 40%, needs 53% |
| Last 15 games | 8 of 1553%needs 53% to break even | 33%–72% | evenwon 53%, needs 53% |
| This season | 3 of 650%needs 53% to break even | 22%–78% | 3 points shortwon 50%, needs 53% |
| Last season | 11 of 1765%needs 53% to break even | 45%–81% | 11 points betterwon 65%, needs 53% |
| Every game |
Tonight PIT plays on the road, as the favorite, after a win, against NO. Tap any of these to count only past games that looked the same; the record and every number below follow.
Click a price to open the bet at that book, or a book's name below for everywhere it has the best price.
Best price at the top. Each row shows what a winning $100 bet pays compared with it.
Rushing yards in each game against under 62.5, newest first. Ties (pushes) don't count toward the record.
The same bet at other numbers, surest at the top, replayed over the same games. Where a book offers the number, its best price is beside it.
The numbers the books are posting on the other side.
| Bet | Best price | How often it won | Last 10 games | Trend score | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 59.5 rushing yardsJaylen Warren |
This player's other props in the game.
| Bet | Best price | How often it won | Last 10 games | Trend score | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Doesn't score a TDJaylen Warren · Sun, Oct 25, 9:30 AM ET |
| 44%–76% |
| 7 points betterwon 61%, needs 53% |
| 50 |
| +12.5 |
| Won |
| Wk 5 | 101 | -38.5 | Lost |
| Wk 4 | 93 | -30.5 | Lost |
| Wk 3 | 127 | -64.5 | Lost |
| Wk 2 | 43 | +19.5 | Won |
| Wk 1 | 46 | +16.5 | Won |
| Last season | ||||
| Wk 19 | 43 | +19.5 | Won | |
| Wk 18 | 66 | -3.5 | Lost |
| Wk 17 | 64 | -1.5 | Lost |
| Wk 16 | 143 | -80.5 | Lost |
| Wk 15 | 33 | +29.5 | Won |
| Wk 14 | 13 | +49.5 | Won |
| Wk 13 | 35 | +27.5 | Won |
| Wk 12 | 68 | -5.5 | Lost |
| Wk 11 | 62 | +0.5 | Won |
| Wk 10 | 70 | -7.5 | Lost |
| Wk 9 | 31 | +31.5 | Won |
| Wk 8 | 62 | +0.5 | Won |
| Wk 7 | 127 | -64.5 | Lost |
| Wk 6 | 52 | +10.5 | Won |
| Wk 3 | 47 | +15.5 | Won |
| Wk 2 | 48 | +14.5 | Won |
| Wk 1 | 37 | +25.5 | Won |
| -131at Kalshi |
| 6 of 10· last 10 games60%needs 57% to break even |
| -22.4Not beating its price |
| Over 62.5 rushing yardsJaylen Warren · Sun, Oct 25, 9:30 AM ETWithout Skowronek (WR) | -115at BetMGM | 6 of 10· last 10 games60%needs 53% to break even | -22.6Not beating its price |
| Over 63.5 rushing yardsJaylen Warren · Sun, Oct 25, 9:30 AM ETWithout Skowronek (WR) | -111at BetOnline | 6 of 10· last 10 games60%needs 53% to break even | -21.9Not beating its price |
| Over 64.5 rushing yardsJaylen Warren · Sun, Oct 25, 9:30 AM ETWithout Skowronek (WR) | -110at DraftKings | 3 of 5· last 5 games60%needs 52% to break even | -24.8Not beating its price |
| Over 69.5 rushing yardsJaylen Warren · Sun, Oct 25, 9:30 AM ETWithout Skowronek (WR) | +114at Kalshi | 3 of 5· last 5 games60%needs 47% to break even | -24.6Not beating its price |
| Over 79.5 rushing yardsJaylen Warren · Sun, Oct 25, 9:30 AM ETWithout Skowronek (WR) | +181at Kalshi | 3 of 5· last 5 games60%needs 36% to break even | -16.2Not beating its price |
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price.
| -107at Kalshi |
| 8 of 10· last 10 games80%needs 52% to break even |
| -3.3Not beating its price |
| Over 26.5 receiving yardsJaylen Warren · Sun, Oct 25, 9:30 AM ETWithout Skowronek (WR) | -109at DraftKings | 6 of 6· this season100%needs 52% to break even | Record is this season's | -7.7Not beating its price |
| Over 25.5 receiving yardsJaylen Warren · Sun, Oct 25, 9:30 AM ETWithout Skowronek (WR) | -110at BetOnline | 6 of 6· this season100%needs 52% to break even | Record is this season's | -7.9Not beating its price |
| Over 24.5 receiving yardsJaylen Warren · Sun, Oct 25, 9:30 AM ETWithout Skowronek (WR) | -116at Kalshi | 6 of 6· this season100%needs 54% to break even | Record is this season's | -9.0Not beating its price |
| Under 3.5 receptionsJaylen Warren · Sun, Oct 25, 9:30 AM ETWithout Skowronek (WR) | -148at Kalshi | 12 of 15· last 15 games80%needs 60% to break even | -9.3Not beating its price |
| Under 2.5 receptionsJaylen Warren · Sun, Oct 25, 9:30 AM ETWithout Skowronek (WR) | +134at Kalshi | 11 of 17· last season65%needs 43% to break even | Record is last season's | -12.3Not beating its price |
| Under 99.5 rush + rec yardsJaylen Warren · Sun, Oct 25, 9:30 AM ETWithout Skowronek (WR) | -148at Kalshi | 14 of 17· last season82%needs 60% to break even | Record is last season's | -16.3Not beating its price |
| Over 13.5 rush attemptsJaylen Warren · Sun, Oct 25, 9:30 AM ETWithout Skowronek (WR) | -121at Kalshi | 4 of 5· last 5 games80%needs 55% to break even | -17.6Not beating its price |
| Over 16.5 rush attemptsJaylen Warren · Sun, Oct 25, 9:30 AM ETWithout Skowronek (WR) | +198at Kalshi | 2 of 5· last 5 games40%needs 34% to break even | -20.6Not beating its price |
| Under 13.5 rush attemptsJaylen Warren · Sun, Oct 25, 9:30 AM ETWithout Skowronek (WR) | -103at Kalshi | 9 of 17· last season53%needs 51% to break even | Record is last season's | -23.5Not beating its price |
| Over 99.5 rush + rec yardsJaylen Warren · Sun, Oct 25, 9:30 AM ETWithout Skowronek (WR) | +109at Kalshi | 3 of 5· last 5 games60%needs 48% to break even | -25.6Not beating its price |
| Under 24.5 receiving yardsJaylen Warren · Sun, Oct 25, 9:30 AM ETWithout Skowronek (WR) | -112at Kalshi | 12 of 17· last season71%needs 53% to break even | Record is last season's | -26.4Not beating its price |
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price.
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